Best Picture 2005 predictions

[roquat]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 8:24pm

Here's my list. (Not personal taste, just what I think will be nominated):

Crash
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night and Good Luck
Munich
King Kong

I don't know who will win, but I think it's between "Crash" and "Brokeback."

Thoughts?

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:11pm

That looks about right to me...although I still think CRASH doesn't have much of a chance.

I think, at this point, the race is between BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN and KING KONG.

[kate2]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:12pm

it will definitely be between Brokeback and Kong

[roquat]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:17pm

Or "The Producers", maybe? (in place of "Good Night")?

[BlueWizard]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:20pm

Maybe I'm a pessimist, but I think KONG is out of the running due to the bad press stemming from its opening weekend. I think we have a one-horse race here, and it's BROKEBACK. The only foreseeable threat is MUNICH, driven solely by the Spielberg name.

[Mandi Moo]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:20pm

RENT, obviously....kidding. I'm kidding.


I'd love Crash to win...but I'm betting it'll be either Brokeback or King Kong.

[EverythingIsRENT]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:22pm

Hey, RENT SHOULD win that award...but BM will never win, its too controversial.

[EvelynNesbit1906]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:26pm

Of the likely nominees for a Best Picture Oscar, I'd vote Brokeback Mountain. I think at this point it'll be a triple battle between BM, Munich and King Kong.

Of the likely Best Director Razzie nominees, I'd vote for Chris Columbus. J/K. GOTCHA EVERYTHINGISRENT!

[BlueWizard]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:36pm

Here are my predictions (in order of probability):

Brokeback Mountain
Munich
Walk the Line
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck

I would in all seriousness nominate Columbus for that Razzie.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:38pm

I would nominate Columbus for the Razzie as well.

I don't think WALK THE LINE will get a nomination. Good performances, but the actual movie itself is nothing brilliant.

What happened to THE NEW WORLD? It kind of dropped off the radar.

[Mr Roxy]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:39pm

King Kong
Munich
An Absense of Violence
Capote
Good Night & Good Luck

Updated On: 12/19/05 at 09:39 PM

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:41pm

The list will be:

Walk the Line
Crash
Brokeback Mountain
King Kong
Munich


Walk the Line will win the Golden Globe for Best Picture (it has virtually no competition) so that will push it to get a nod and possibly push it to have a better chance at winning. For me its between WTL, Brokeback, and Kong. I think Kong will win.

[StickToPriest]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:44pm

If Brokeback Mountain doesn't win I'll be devastated, but if it is beaten by the mediocre-at-best Walk the Line I'll be livid.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:44pm

Wishful thinking with WALK THE LINE and CRASH...but we shall see.

[BlueWizard]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:46pm

Mr Roxy, don't you mean A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE?

I don't think WALK THE LINE will get a nomination. Good performances, but the actual movie itself is nothing brilliant.

I feel the same way, but brilliance (or lack thereof) has rarely been a deciding factor in the race for Oscar.

Ever since those opening day numbers, I feel like there's been a KONG backlash in Hollywood, despite the stellar reviews.

[EvelynNesbit1906]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 9:57pm

Walk the Line winning would be as crazy as Judy Holliday beating Anne Baxter, Bette Davis, and Gloria Swanson for Best Actress. One of those things that happen because blocks are so passionate about the other contenders.

Okay, I admit I only said "J/K" because I didn't want to get EverythingIsRENT all worked up. I do think Chris Columbus should at least make the preliminary cut (ten or so candidates) for Worst Director and Worst Screenwriter Razzies. It'll be a way of saying "you can't just half ass a project and then expect to get accolades because your heart is in the right place." That's just like me skipping a 300-level Art History class three or four years ago, and then telling off the professor when he gave me a B+ for a final grade. My heart was in the right place too, but ultimately, I know I didn't do my best.

I'd like to at least see King Kong nominated just because I feel the Academy (and critics) are moving too close to appreciating smaller films and feeling that spectacles are necessarily not as deep. Brokeback Mountain winning would be a big deal, of course.
Updated On: 12/19/05 at 09:57 PM

[Cruel_Sandwich]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 10:03pm

In a just world, Syriana will sweep everything this year.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 11:14pm

Syriana was incredible.

[EvelynNesbit1906]

Posted: 12/19/05 at 11:29pm

I haven't seen it yet. What's so incredible about it?

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 12/20/05 at 12:33am

I think the nominees will be

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
KING KONG
MUNICH
WALK THE LINE
GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK

CRASH really needed support from the critics groups. CAPOTE is too small.

The winner is going to be MUNICH -- a year ago it was the front runner, and now its going to win by default. KONG is "too silly," WALK THE LINE not good enough, "GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK" too small - and BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN -- yes "too gay."

It's nice to see BROKEBACK the front runner going into the race, but with any film that is often dangerous (how many months of potential backlash do we have? See SIDEWAYS last year) and Hollywood voters are the ultimate hypocrites -- its a very gay town that at the same time manages to be incredibly closeted and homophobic. And we haven't even begun see the inevitable criticism the film will receive outside large areas like NY, San Francisco, LA and upscale suberbs like Plano, TX and Highland Park, IL

So MUNICH, the early favorite -- perhaps a little politically divisive is going to easily snag it. The major critics all love it and the box office will be solid.

The good news is that all the nominees should take an award or two -- BBM will take screenplay and probably director, WTL - Actress, KONG - effects etc.

[BlueWizard]

Posted: 12/20/05 at 1:20am

The fact that MUNICH is still simmering below the radar is a bit of foreboding. It's like the calm before the storm. The film recieved a scathing review from Variety, but I expect the Spielberg brand will carry it far with the Academy.

I've lost track of how many critics' circles have named BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN the movie of the year (almost all of them so far, from LA and NY to Las Vegas and Dallas, of all places). But KING KONG just scored its first top prize, from the San Diego Film Critics Society.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 12/20/05 at 1:27am

MUNICH is on a lot of the year end top ten lists though - and high on the list from important critics like Roger Ebert and Kenneth Turan, so I am assuming their forthcoming reviews are going to be huge raves. Plus its Spielberg - who's film career has been a little splotchy of late - but who is definitely very "in" the club as they say in Hollywood.

I think being under the radar right now is the very best thing for any film in terms of Oscar glory. The Oscars have been moved back to March this year (because of Winter Olympics - another nice timing for MUNICH) and ideally you want your film to peak in February when AMPAS members are voting (hence the traditional late year end release date). Two and a half months is a long time for any film to be a front runner - almost impossible. Even TITANIC didn't become a clear favorite until after the new year when its box office made the pic unavoidable.
Updated On: 12/20/05 at 01:27 AM

[DAME]

Posted: 12/20/05 at 1:38am

Brokeback Mountain
Kong
Capote
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck

I was not crazy about King Kong but I think it will get a nod. However..I believe Brokeback is by far the best movie of the last two years. Also.. even though it will be a very tight race.. my vote for best actor goes to P. H. for Capote.

[ZONEACE]

Posted: 12/20/05 at 1:43am

Now, keeping in mind I still need to see BBM, Munich and King Kong, and Syriana, the two best movies I've seen all year have been GN&GL and The Constant Gardener. I think one, if not both should get a nod. King Kong does not look that interesting to me. I mean, I'll see it, and probably have a good time, but it doesn't look like Best Picture quality movie making. I feel like Munich will be amazing (based on buzz on previews) and I won't be able to help but love Bareback.


I have of movie watching to do between wednesday and the second of January (when i leave the country for 3 weeks).

[BlueWizard]

Posted: 12/20/05 at 1:45am

King Kong does not look that interesting to me. I mean, I'll see it, and probably have a good time, but it doesn't look like Best Picture quality movie making.

You'll be surprised.

I think Universal is doing an awful job marketing this movie, because it seems everyone thinks the film is just another monster B-movie remake. The ads really should be emphasizing the tragic pathos of the new KONG. The film is the E.T. of 2005 (but without the sentimental cuteness that has plagued many of Spielberg's kid-friendly flicks).

Updated On: 12/20/05 at 01:45 AM