Optimism: 35 key trends suggest Kerry's gotta shot

[Auggie27]

Posted: 10/20/04 at 8:27am

A fascinating collection of data that suggests there's real hope for a Kerry victory. Check it out.

http://www.politicalstrategy.org/archives/000580.php

Updated On: 10/20/04 at 08:27 AM

[bongoboy]

Posted: 10/20/04 at 9:48am

Excellent link Auggie. Last night I was looking for a comparison of 2004 election polls to 2000. Thanks!

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 10/20/04 at 9:52am

it must be some kinda freudian thing. i keep reading this thread name as "optimism: 35 key trends suggest kerry's gonna get shot." then i pause and wonder how it stays on the board. the i rub my eyes and read it right and think i really need to wait until at least noon to start drinking.

[Auggie27]

Posted: 10/20/04 at 10:02am

Only moments after posting this site, I turned on Today, and learned that 500,000 children of American voted via Scholastic and gave it Bush, 52 to 47 to 1 ("to Mom...") Apparently, they've only been wrong twice: Dewey/Truman and Nixon/Kennedy. Well, those are certainly two close elections that mirror some of the dynamics of this one.

On the other hand, the Halloween mask people say the Bush mask is selling two to one over the Kerry, which apparently is ALWAYS a reliable indicator of the winner. Papa, you might back me up on this one: it's skewed this year, since a grim,long-faced Kerry mask is already being sold under another name of course.

[grownupgroupie]

Posted: 10/20/04 at 10:06am

But if we're going to mention the Halloween Mask litmus test, it's ALSO almost always historically true that the taller and bluer-blooded candidate wins. Kerry is, of course, 6'6" with the hair! As far as the blue blood goes, they're close (Bush was born with a silver foot in his mouth just like his daddy....bluer blood than Gore) but Kerry edges him out in terms of degrees of relation away from QE2, which is one of the ways they measure it.

Anyone know whether Theresa or Laura won the cookie bake-off this year? That's often a reliable indicator too.

Fingers crossed, folks.

[Auggie27]

Posted: 10/20/04 at 7:02pm

Why did Teresa apologize to Laura? I heard Wolf Blitzer say something about that, but no details. Teresa was on The View, and merely described the motive for her hug after the debate. "She looked like she needed one.." (Is that what that crazed look in Laura's eye is for? It's a hug solicitation?)

[iflitifloat]

Posted: 10/20/04 at 7:14pm

THK made an unfortunate dig at LB's lack of formal work experience, which first of all, was inaccurate, and second, came across as patronizing and arrogant. THK needs to learn who her audience is...

I have always worked full time while raising a family. Quite honestly, working women tend to do the eyeball roll when we hear stay-at-home mothers (or homemakers) complaining about how busy they are. But really, everyone's reality is their own, so it's not the kind of sentiment that gets mentioned in "mixed company". THK's comment was not the way to win undecided voters. I think no one much cared when she told a reporter to "shove it", but I'm betting this latest indiscretion is going to ruffle some feathers and isn't going to easily go away.

[Auggie27]

Posted: 10/20/04 at 8:29pm

Oh no. What were they thinking, putting her out to dis Laura ... now? Pu-leeze, why is she not muzzled, two weeks before? How simply incomprehensible. It makes my heart sink, such inane strategy. The Democrats are shooting themselves in their sandle-clad feet. The last thing we need with 45/45 divide is a "cat fight" between beloved Laura and feared Teresa. It's a hard enough time for womens issues, you know, real ones this makes it all circa FAR FROM HEAVEN.

Updated On: 10/20/04 at 08:29 PM

[FindingNamo]

Posted: 10/20/04 at 8:36pm

Hey, this is NOTHING! Hilary withstood the rage of Tammy Wynette!

[Auggie27]

Posted: 10/20/04 at 8:53pm

I know, I know, Namo. I never thought I'd talk "muzzling"a spouse. It's just so un-needed at this point. With real targets like Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, and yes, Condoleeza Rice, why pick on Laura -- NOW? Off the cuff or not, THK should've known better. She's hardly new to politics. I'm just sad that on the heels of ludicrous Mary Cheney "controversy" with now have Krystal vs. Alexis-gate.

[South Fl Marc]

Posted: 10/20/04 at 9:26pm

Here is another article about kids casting votes:


New York, NY, Oct. 20 (UPI) -- If kids could vote, Sen. John Kerry would be the next U.S. president, Nickelodeon network's "Kids' Vote" indicates.


Children across the country exercised their votes in the network's poll held online Tuesday.

Nickelodeon said it has held the "Kids' Vote" every election year since 1988, and its voters have correctly predicted the winner in the last four presidential campaigns.

In this year's vote, Kerry received 57 percent of the vote, to President George W. Bush's 43 percent. The vote tally was almost 400,000, the announcement said.

In 2000, Bush was predicted the winner over Vice President Al Gore with 55 percent of the vote.

"The 'Kids' Vote' seems to work as a good barometer of the actual presidential vote because, developmentally, kids between the ages of 2 and 11 share the same opinions and outlooks as their parents," said Nickelodeon President Cyma Zarghami.

"What really counts, though, is the fact that kids got interested in the campaign and let their voices be heard. That's a great habit to develop and hold on to as they grow into responsible adults."