2024 Tony Predictions
Apr 27
2024, 01:12:17 PM
2024 Tony Nomination Predictions Part One: Musicals
Buckle up, kids, I have a lot to say.
First off, this has been a WILD season. Fifteen new musicals, which is insane. And no clear critical/popular favorite among them. Very few categories have more than 1-2 clear frontrunners for nominations. There are so many ways things could go, which makes it both incredibly fun and incredibly frustrating. Okay, here we go.
For each category, I'll list my predictions in descending order of confidence. Then I'll add some commentary and additional thoughts about who else I think could get in.
Best Musical
1. Illinoise
2. Suffs
3. Hell's Kitchen
4. The Outsiders
5. Here Lies Love
I think the top three are locks for nominations. And I do think The Outsiders will get in there even though it had a mixed critical reception. Here Lies Love was critically praised but never found an audience -- and closed last summer, which never helps with nomination chances in musical categories.
Other Potential Contenders (OPCs)
Days of Wine and Roses - Critical success but somewhat divisive. Closed early. I actively disliked this show, but it's probably the most artistic choice, and Guettel has his fans.
The Notebook - Brand recognition is good, but reviews were quite mixed. I actually liked the show, and it's a currently running show with an original score, which could help.
Water for Elephants - Critics liked this, which baffles me. I thought it had some great artistic ambitions but fell short of most of them.
Long Shots
The Heart of Rock and Roll - Critics appreciated this show for what it is, which is a lighthearted good time. It's been struggling financially, so a Tony committee that wants to help could throw it in the mix. It would be the & Juliet of this season, but this show isn't half as good as & Juliet.
Back to the Future - Critically dismissed, but, hey it opened last summer and is still running, so...maybe? But I seriously doubt it.
No Chance: Harmony, Lempicka, How to Dance in Ohio, Once Upon a One More Time
Best Revival of a Musical
1. Merrily We Roll Along
2. Cabaret
3. The Who's Tommy
4. The Wiz
Given Cabaret's critical drubbing (which I think was unreasonably harsh), Merrily's the only true lock. But I don't really see a world in which Cabaret's not nominated. Tommy is doing fairly well at the box office, the critics liked it enough, and it had, at the very least, a clear perspective. I think it's in. The fourth spot is a total wildcard. I HATED this production of The Wiz, but it's doing gangbusters at the box office, and the reviews were gentler than they had any real reason to be. And it's currently running, which usually helps.
OPCs
The only other two potential nominees are Gutenberg! and Spamalot. But both are closed. Gutenberg! is far more likely than Spamalot to grab that fourth spot, and I wouldn't be mad about it at all (I'd certainly put it in over The Wiz). It was a critical and financial success, but it closed months ago. Spamalot was basically a carbon copy of the original production and closed early. I can see a world where it sneaks into that fourth spot, but I'd be shocked.
Leading Actress in a Musical
1. Kelli O'Hara - Days of Wine and Roses
2. Maryann Plunkett - The Notebook
3. Maleah Joi Moon - Hell's Kitchen
4. Gayle Rankin - Cabaret
5. Shaina Taub - Suffs
Kelli and Maryann both gave phenomenal performances in mediocre shows. And they're both beloved by the Broadway community. They're locks. I feel fairly confident that Maleah will get in -- good notices, great vocals, and she's on stage for almost the whole show. Gayle and Shaina I feel less confident about. Before the reviews, I thought Gayle was a shoo-in, but quite a few reviews singled her out negatively. Her Sally is nothing but choices, and I knew it would be divisive, but I liked it. I didn't see Shaina on Broadway, but I saw her at The Public, so I have a sense of what her performance would be. She gives a solid if not spectacular performance in what is ultimately an ensemble show. But the fact that she also wrote the book and lyrics, I think, will put her on the ballot.
OPCs
Eden Espinosa - Lempicka - Honestly, I think Eden still has a very good shot. But Lempicka was destroyed by the critics (and not necessarily undeservedly so). And there have been reports of major pitch issues (though I didn't notice them when I saw her).
Eva Noblezada - The Great Gatsby - Even though most critics trashed the show (rightfully), Eva got the best notices of the cast. And she's been nominated for her last two roles.
Long Shot
Arielle Jacobs - Here Lies Love - Honestly, she'd probably be on my ballot. But the show's closed, and it's more likely to get other nods.
Leading Actor in a Musical
1. Jonathan Groff - Merrily We Roll Along
2. Brian D'Arcy James - Days of Wine and Roses
3. Eddie Redmayne - Cabaret
4. Chip Zien - Harmony
5. Dorian Harewood - The Notebook
I think the top three are locks, Cabaret's critical drubbing notwithstanding. Love it or hate it, Eddie performs. I think Chip is Harmony's best shot at a nomination. I didn't love his performance (or the show), but he's the heart of it -- and he's never been nominated for a Tony! The fifth spot is a total wildcard to me. Dorian gives a strong and steady performance as Old Noah. It's not flashy at all, but I think the industry veteran sneaks in over the new(er)comers.
OPCs
Brody Grant - The Outsiders - I'd nominate him, but he's young (and reads young which can be misread as immature).
Ali Louis Bourzgui - The Who's Tommy - I thought he gave a strong performance, but this role has been placed in featured before, and his notices were good but not over the moon.
Long Shots
Jeremy Jordan - The Great Gatsby - Well-liked by the Broadway community, from what I can tell. Chews the scenery. Great vocals. Terrible show.
Andrew Rannells & Josh Gad - Gutenberg! - In a different season, they'd both be nominated. But I have a hard time seeing one of them getting in over the other. And there's not room for both of them.
Featured Actress in a Musical
1. Bebe Neuwirth - Cabaret
2. Lindsay Mendez - Merrily We Roll Along
3. Kecia Lewis - Hell's Kitchen
4. Shoshana Bean - Hell's Kitchen
5. Nikki M. James - Suffs
I think this category is far more wide open than most prognosticators would have you believe. Lindsay and Bebe are getting nominated, but I'm not convinced that either is a lock for the win. Kecia COMMANDS the stage in Hell's Kitchen, but Shoshana has the much bigger role. I really hope they both get in. After that, IDK. It's hard to see one of the Suffs not getting in, but there are so many roles, so they may split the votes.
OPCs
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer - GoldDerby thinks she's in. I don't think it's that simple. She performed the role well, but the key argument against her would be that it was simply a carbon copy of an existing take on the role. And the show's closed.
A different Suff - Jenn Colella probably has the best shot, but you could make an argument for Emily Skinner (though her role is much smaller), Ally Bonnino (who I *loved*, but it's not a flashy role), or Grace McLean (who's great but also has a small role)
Amber Iman - Lempicka - Amber SINGS the house down and gives a phenomenal performance. But she's in a different show than everyone else in Lempicka. That's really the director's fault, but in this deep a category, I think it's going to keep her on the outside.
Joy Woods - The Notebook - She has a great number and a lot of stage time.
Long Shots
If there's a really heavy Merrily sweep, Krystal Joy Brown could sneak in for her performance as Gussie. Jennifer Simard's performance of Toxic from Once Upon a One More Time is nomination worthy (as is truly anything she ever does), but I'd be shocked if she gets in.
Featured Actor in a Musical
1. Daniel Radcliffe - Merrily We Roll Along
2. Ricky Ubeda - Illinoise
3. Steven Skybell - Cabaret
4. Conrad Ricamora - Here Lies Love
5. Paul Alexander Nolan - Water for Elephants
I feel relatively confident about my top four picks, but I think Daniel Radcliffe is the only true lock. His Charley Kringas is fantastic and understated at the same time. He does have a history of strong performances that haven't been nominated (Equus & How to Succeed in particular), but I think this production of Merrily is such a juggernaut that he won't be overlooked this time. Skybell is in a role that is often nominated, and he got solid notices. Ricamora is a Broadway stalwart and has a ton of good will in the industry. If Here Lies Love gets a ton of nominations, which I think is possible, he's a shoo-in. But even if it doesn't, I think he's the show's best chance at a nod (and his current turn as Abraham Lincoln in Oh Mary is also fantastic -- expect him to be nominated in Featured Actor in a Play next season). Ubeda is the heart and soul of Illinoise, but dance performances have a mixed record at the Tonys. The fifth slot is wide open. BVD is fantastic and gives great vocals, but the character is underwritten and unlikeable.[Note: I've edited this to swap out Paul Alexander Nolan for Brandon Victor Dixon)
OPCs
Paul Alexander Nolan - Water for Elephants - Nolan has been egregiously snubbed before (especially for Slave Play), and he has the flashiest role in this show. It is a villain, which could play against him, but I think he's the likeliest to replace BVD in the last slot.
An Outsider - Similar to Suffs, The Outsiders is a true ensemble piece, so the nominators may have a hard time coalescing around one particular performance. I think Joshua Boone has the best shot at breaking through, but I can also see a world in which Sky Lakota-Lynch or Brent Comer could get in there.
Roger Bart or Hugh Coles - Back to the Future - Coles won the Olivier playing George McFly, and Bart gives an over the top performance as Doc Brown. I can see either of them potentially overcoming the show's bad critical notices, but I think BTTF will be limited to nominations in technical categories.
Long Shots
Andrew Samonsky - Lempicka - Great performance of a terribly underwritten role
Ethan Slater - Spamalot - Probably the best male performance among the principals, and many think he should have won for SpongeBob,
Ryan Vazquez - The Notebook - It's a big heartfelt role, but I don't think he'll overcome the show's mediocre reviews.
Ato Blankson-Wood - Cabaret - Cliff is a tough role and is rarely nominated, but if the nominating committee is more bullish on Cabaret than the critics were, he could ride a wave to a nomination.
Liam Pierce - How to Dance in Ohio - If the committee is eager to reward this show for its inclusive representation of neurodivergent performers, Pierce has the best shot, as he had, by far, the best song of the show and delivered it well.
Kyle Ramar Freeman - The Wiz - His performance was the best of the cast, but I have a hard time seeing anyone overcome the generally bad word of mouth for this show.
Reg Rogers - Merrily We Roll Along - Only if there's a true Merrily tsunami
Ben Cook - Illinoise - Ubeda being in this category significantly decreases Cook's chances.
Director of a Musical
1. Maria Friedman - Merrily We Roll Along
2. Alex Timbers - Here Lies Love
3. Danya Taymor - The Outsiders
4. Justin Peck - Illinoise
5. Rebecca Frecknall - Cabaret
Again, I think Friedman is the only real lock here. Timbers, Taymor, and Peck all did great work with complex or unconventional material. Frecknall would have been a lock before the reviews came out. But I think her comprehensive vision (even for those who didn't agree with it) and the pure spectacle of the production get her in.
OPCs
Michael Greif - Hell's Kitchen - Greif had three productions on Broadway this season, which is wild. He's been nominated four times before but has never won (even when his show has won Best Musical [RENT & Dear Evan Hansen]).
Leigh Silverman - Suffs - I actually found Silverman's direction to be fairly bland, but if the nominators rally behind Suffs, she could get in.
Michael Greif & Schele Williams - The Notebook - People could look at this as a way to honor two directors with multiple works on Broadway this season with one nomination.
Michael Greif - Days of Wine and Roses - Honestly, I think he'll split the votes with himself, but all of these are at least worthy of being in the conversation.
Jessica Stone - Water for Elephants - I liked some of the things she did, and she's still riding a wave of good will from Kimberly Akimbo, so maybe?
Book of a Musical
1. Suffs (Shaina Taub)
2. Days of Wine and Roses (Craig Lucas)
3. The Outsiders (Adam Rapp)
4. Hell's Kitchen (Kristoffer Diaz)
5. Illinoise (Justin Peck & Jackie Sibblies-Drury)
The main criticism of literally every new musical this season has been its book, so I truly have no idea how things are going to land here. I think Suffs has the strongest shot. Beyond that, it's giant question marks. I think the book of Illinoise is brilliant because it takes a truly gifted writer to craft a complex and moving narrative out of a dance piece with no spoken dialogue. But I can see nominators dismissing it for the same reasons.
OPCs
Here Lies Love - HLL doesn't even technically have a credited book writer, so I have no idea what they'll do with it.
Bruce Sussman - Harmony
Rick Elice - Water for Elephants
Beech Brunstetter - The Notebook
Carson Kreitzer - Lempicka
Rebekah Greer Melocok - How to Dance in Ohio
Jonathan A. Abrams - The Heart of Rock and Roll
Honestly, the main criteria for being on this list is that they wrote a show that has a book. I genuinely have no idea what's going to happen with this category.
Best Score
1. Adam Guettel - Days of Wine and Roses
2. Shaina Taub - Suffs
3. Will Butler - Stereophonic
4. David Byrne & Fatboy Slim - Here Lies Love
5. Jonathan Clay, Zach Chance & Justin Levine - The Outsiders
Yes, I think a play has a stronger shot at a nomination for best score than most of. the new musicals this season. The music in Stereophonic is superb. I think Guettel and Taub get in. DOWAR had the most ambitious score in the field, and Suffs had probably the most traditional musical theatre score. After that, who knows?
OPCs
Pigpen Theatre Company - Water for Elephants
Ingrid Michaelson - The Notebook
Matt Gould - Lempicka
Barry Manilow & Bruce Sussman - Harmony
Jason Howland & Nathan Tysen - The Great Gatsby
Choreography
1. Justin Peck - Illinoise
2. Rick & Jeff Kuperman.- The Outsiders
3. Julia Cheng - Cabaret
4. Camille A. Brown - Hell's Kitchen
5. Lorin Latarro - The Who's Tommy
OPCs
Shana Carroll & Jesse Robb - Water for Elephants
Annie B Parson - Here Lies Love
Jaquel Knight - The Wiz
Keone & Mari Madrid - Once Upon a One More Time
Lorin Latarro - Heart of Rock and Roll
Josh Rhodes - Spamalot
Dominique Kelley - The Great Gatsby
Orchestrations
1. Merrily We Roll Along
2. Cabaret
3. Illinoise
4. Days of Wine and Roses
5. Hell's Kitchen
OPCs
The Notebook, The Outsider, Here Lies Love, The Who's Tommy, Suffs, The Heart of Rock and Roll, Water for Elephants
Scenic Design of a Musical
1. Here Lies Love
2. Cabaret
3. Back to the Future
4. The Great Gatsby
5. The Outsiders
OPCs
Illinoise, Hell's Kitchen, Water for Elephants, The Notebook, Days of Wine and Roses, Merrily We Roll Along
Lighting Design of a Musical
1. Illinoise
2. Back to the Future
3. The Who's Tommy
4. Hell's Kitchen
5. Cabaret
OPCs
Suffs, Here Lies Love, Water for Elephants, The Notebook, Lempicka, The Great Gatsby, Merrily We Roll Along
Costume Design of a Musical
1. Cabaret
2. The Great Gatsby
3. Suffs
4. Hell's Kitchen
5. Merrily We Roll Along
OPCs
Here Lies Love, Days of Wine and Roses, The Outsiders, Once Upon a One More Time, Spamalot, The Wiz
Sound Design of a Musical
1. The Outsiders
2. Back to the Future
3. Illinoise
4. Cabaret
5. Here Lies Love
OPCs
Suffs, Hell's Kitchen, Water for Elephants, The Notebook, The Who's Tommy
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