Profile for Figbash

That's a good point. Looking over the data though, I think the only award the off-broadway rule affects is Drama Desk, and Hadestown didn't win any off-broadway - it was nominated for Best Musical, but that wouldn't have affected the results much, just making it slightly more of a frontrunner. But there may be biases towards broadway, and it just might have gotten better. Can you think of other cases where an offbroadway run might have artificially removed it from the running? Thanks for sayi...

Just for fun, I made a predictive model of who will win 8 of the musical-based Tony awards, using the same exact method used on Nate Silver's 538 website to predict the Oscars (which isn't too different from how they predict elections):https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-oscars-tracker-works/In essence it assigns points to each of the predecessor awards - Drama Desk, Outer Critics Circle etc - based on how well they predicted the winner of that category in the past, in my case in eve...