Bush strength going into convention

[Unknown User]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 2:55pm

"The share of Americans who say they approve of the job Bush is doing inched over the 50% mark to 51%. No president who was at or above 50% at this point in an election year has lost." - according to the latest Gallop poll.

[Rose_MacShane]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 3:26pm

And that is a frightening thought.

[KMF_NYC]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 3:30pm

I'm depressed....

[Matt_G]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 3:33pm

I just peed a little. And not in the good way you all are used to.

[Rose_MacShane]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 3:36pm

If I may be serious for a moment, if you are over 18, VOTE!! Practically nobody in the 18-40ish age bracket does, and we're the ones who will have to live with the results, good or bad, for the longest peroid of time.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 3:37pm

i coulda sworn i posted, but anyway...gallup also has him up by 3% in the horserace poll. not outside the moe but it makes it the lone poll that puts bush on top. even fox had kerry up by 5% in their last poll on 8/4. cw according to abc's the note has it as kerry's race to lose. realclearpolitics has the average of the most recent polls giving kerry a 3.4% lead but that might be skewed a bit high as it includes a democracy corps poll which has kerrry up by 7%.

it's a question of who can inspire the swing voters. bush has reliably shored up his base and i don't think he has to worry about any 4 million evangelicals sitting out this one. can abb really catapult kerry into the white house? i think that we have to see where gw is after his convention and how the debates play out. besides, i bet that last poll isn't taking into account the latest round of fun with moqtada in najaf.

but i still say you folks picked the wrong horse in this one (no pun intended).

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 3:49pm

I'm still not sure about this approval rating. What did Bush do worthy of approval? Exhibit bigotry openly? Cultivate new heights of global hatred towards the US?

[BroadwayMonkey]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 4:57pm

*cries* What are we gonna DO!?!?

[shlamdiddly]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 5:00pm

>>*cries* What are we gonna DO!?!?

VOTE!

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 5:09pm

now, now, matt, it might just be that there's a new slew of bc04 ads out there with w stating, "i'm george bush and i approve this message." easy to see how that could confuse voters. see, they think that the polls are asking if they've seen w approve anything lately. so obviously they're answering yes.

remember, 62% of the country also wants to see a ban on gay marriage written into the constitution at last count.

[BroadwayMonkey]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 5:17pm

Shlamdiddly, I can't vote! I'm underage!!

[broadwaystar2b]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 5:17pm

now Charley doesn't seem so scary
i wish i could vote

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 5:23pm

Thank you papa. I understand now. Whew!

[LadyGuenevere]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 5:27pm

These latest poll #s aren't what intrigued me the most.

It's the fact that Kerry didn't get a big bounce up after the DNC. That's usually expected. I think that most of the country has their minds decided either way.

We're going to see if the RNC *lowers* Bush's favor in the poll numbers. Now THAT would be something. (Something bad, but something.) Updated On: 8/13/04 at 05:27 PM

[Unknown User]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 5:33pm

These still are the numbers I'm most interested in:

Electoral College 2004
(estimates - not including undecided)

Date Bush Kerry
Aug 9 197 228

RasmussenReports.com

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 5:36pm

here's some interesting reading for you, d, if you haven't seen it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/blog_8_13_04_0953.html

and mr. matt, i'm glad i could help.

Updated On: 8/13/04 at 05:36 PM

[Unknown User]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 5:49pm

papa - I actually agree with most everything McIntyre said. An interesting component - and one he didn't address in his Florida analysis at all - is what lingering effects there might be from the 200 election. I'm not convinced that more liberals than normal will vote in Florida simply out of frustration. While it is documented that many liberals will fume at home and then not vote, so much was made out of the Florida debacle that they may actually be invigorated. Of course, we have no model for this, so only time will tell. As you are fond of pointing out, the conservative base hardly needs energizing - but I am curious if the 2000 vote has lit a fire under the lberal's butts.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 5:58pm

yeah, but remember, d, 4 million right wingers sat out 2000. preachers been a preaching the gospel according to george w from dey pulpits, uh huh! i dunno, d, i read an article the other day showing that since the rock the vote campaign started in 1990, voter turnout among 18-24 has dropped from 45% to 38%. i'm leery of anything really firing up the democratic base. it's like a quote from sammy the bull about john gotti regarding gambling, "i don't think john never won nothing gambling. 'leastways i never heard about it. but oh, the stories he'd tell about how much he lost!" i wonder if it's sound and fury signifying nothing.

[South Fl Marc]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 6:00pm

Personally I can't think of a single reason why anybody would still support thius failure of an administration.

But then again, never underestimate the stupidity of the American public.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 6:03pm

marc, love the icon, hate it when ya call me stupid.

d, here's the story where i got those rock the vote #'s.

http://www.rawstory.com/exclusives/softley/mtv_rock_vote_useless_801.htm

raw story can be quite humorous, like drudge.

[Unknown User]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 6:05pm

Papa - Ultimately, what really saddens me is then entrenched us/them mentality that pervades our politics and society. If Bush wins - and at this point it is certainly a very real possibility - while half the country may be very pleased, the other half is going to be appalled - and their voices and opinions will simply be ignored. I can't get out of my head the chant of 'if you're not with us you're against us' - and whatever plurality still manages to survive will simply continue to dwindle to the point of nonexistance. The current climate is going to create a great amount of distress for a great number of people if the current dogma is allowed to continue to dominate.

[South Fl Marc]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 6:10pm

Papa, I would never call you stupid.

But the typical american? Yep , pretty stupid. Updated On: 8/13/04 at 06:10 PM

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 6:25pm

in a way, d, it might be a good thing as i think it will truly froce a re-examination of who the parties are and what they stand for. i'll even let you in on something that will probably show me as out in the yard barking at the moon crazy. i think that a second bush administration would look nothing like the first and they've admitted as much in interviews over the last year. if he gets in, he can't go any further and will no longer be totally obliged to those interests.

he went right this election cycle because he saw that his "uniter" talk last time turned off the right and he had to depend on the vagaries of the courts. if nothing else, bush learns from his mistakes. when he lost the congressional race in '78 he swore he wouldn't be "out good ol' boyed" again and once he sobered up he wasn't. in '99 he said that one of the lessons he learned was that you have to have a base. well, in 2000 he ran against his base and we saw the results.

this year, he took it to heart and ran a campaign that stoked the right to the gills. but if he's re-elected, what more can he accomplish with more pandering to the right? nuttin'. would he owe them? probably. but would he feel the ned to govern from the right as much? i don't think so. i think that a 2nd bush administration will be far more accomodating and less mean spirited. congress, on the other hand, fuhgeddaboudit. republicans are still seething over 40 years of domination by the dems and the last decade hasn't done much to alleviate those feelings, even as they've run roughshod over them.

the us vs. them mentality is just as bad on the left, d. i mean you'd be hard pressed to find a baseball team of folks here who'd admit that republicans contribute anything to society at all. and that's just here. michael moore calls republicans hatriots. what i do think is that you'll hear a lot more about the issues that the losing side cares about if that losing side is the left. whether that translates into action at the executive level, i don't know. but i just think that the 2nd administration would be different, if not better.

[Unknown User]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 6:40pm

papa - interesting point, and one that could very well prove true. Certainly, Bush's acceptance of the Mexican immigrant population shows that he can move in a direction contrary to the base he works from. Time will tell, as with most things. Frankly, it's the people he surrounds himself with, and the effortless dismissiveness they display that rankles me the most. And I will be the last person to tout the inclusiveness of the Democrats. Unlike many, I still seethe at the pandering and then dumping of the last Democratic administration. They are very good at letting talk sell themselves, and mostly because they're intended targets keep buying. The black population has a history of it, and the gay groups seem not to have learned from their mistakes.

[thibodeaux]

Posted: 8/13/04 at 6:49pm

Tell all of your friends that are of age to VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!

GET BUSH OUT OF OFFICE!!

Any man who is so publically trying to oppress a whole group of people is pure EVIL.

ANYONE BUT BUSH 2004!