Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report: NIGHTMARE for GOP

[PalJoey]

Posted: 10/16/06 at 3:05pm

THE NEW YORK TIMES

October 15, 2006
Recent Rating Changes Point to a November ‘Nightmare’ for GOP
By Bob Benenson

In October 1994, Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report alerted its readers to the increasing possibility of a Republican takeover of Congress. Using the traditional symbols of the Democratic and Republican parties, the cover illustration was a cartoon of a donkey having a nightmare of elephants storming up the steps of the Capitol.

A dozen years later, it would be the elephant sleeping fitfully. And the dream keeping it awake could be titled “Nightmare on First Street II — The Donkey Stampede.”

The trend against the GOP is illustrated in changes that CQPolitics.com made to its ratings last week (Oct. 9-13). Congressional Quarterly’s free elections Web site altered its forecasts on one Senate race and 17 House races — and in all but one case, the analysis showed the Democratic candidate gaining ground over his or her Republican opponent. (view CQ Weekly's election forecast chart)

The momentum continues to clearly be on the Democrats’ side: The job approval ratings for President Bush’s Republican administration and the Republican-controlled Congress have plummeted deep into the danger zone.

The administration’s handling of the war in Iraq is now opposed by a sizable majority of voters responding to polls; those polls show Democrats with big leads on their ability to address nearly all major issues; and the scandal over the House Republican leadership’s actions in the scandal involving resigned Florida GOP Rep. Mark Foley has blunted efforts by Bush and his party’s candidates to make their case for continued Republican control.

With that said, Democratic takeovers of the House or/and the Senate are still far from certain a little more than three weeks before the Nov. 7 vote. The lushly funded Republican campaign organizations are pumping millions of dollars into states and districts to defend their endangered seats, and the potent voter turnout machine the Republicans utilized in the 2000, 2002 and 2004 elections remains a critical factor until proven otherwise.

But CQ’s overall ratings suggest that the Republicans’ hold on both chambers is far more tenuous than it has been for years.

In the Senate, Republicans would hold 49 seats to the Democrats’ 46 if all of the races rates as leaning, favored or safe for those parties are added together. Four additional Republican seats are in No Clear Favorite, or tossup, races, to one Democratic seat.

In the House, the Republicans’ projected advantage, which heading into October still exceeded the majority point of 218 seats, has shrunk to 209 — just one seat more than the 208 projected to the Democrats. And all of the 18 seats currently rated as No Clear Favorite are currently held by Republicans.

More ratings changes are expected over the coming days.

Please visit CQPolitics.com’s Election Forecaster for ratings of all races.

© 2006 Congressional Quarterly

Recent Rating Changes Point to a November ‘Nightmare’ for GOP

[WOSQ]

Posted: 10/16/06 at 4:28pm

I think Republicans must be centipedes. Each has to have a hundred legs because of all these 'other shoes dropping'.

Electoral-vote.com has the House at 226 Dem and 209 Rep were the election held now and the Senate 50-49 Dem with 1 tie. Let's get a move on Tennessee!

There are still 15 days for an "October Surprise' which has me worried a bit. Maybe the October Surprise will be that there is no October Surprise!

[PalJoey]

Posted: 10/16/06 at 5:01pm

I'm just hoping that the October Surprise is so little and so late that the American people see right through it.

[brdlwyr]

Posted: 10/16/06 at 5:25pm

Do not doubt that Rove has something up his sleave. The Democratic response may be dispositive as to the effect of his dropped turd.