If their were only 5 picture nominees instead of the expanded list, which 4 would not make your cut
1. American Hustle Entertaining but hardly great
2. Her
3. Philomena - Tough choice but misses by this much
4. Gravity - Same as # 3 Took Nebraska instead
Your choices-----
Roxy, given Cuaron is likely going to win Best Director, Gravity is definitely in that 5. Most of the time there are director/Picture overlap.
The actual top 5 were there not an expansion.
1 and 2 12 Years a Slave or Gravity
3 American Hustle
4 The Wolf of Wall Street
5 Nebraska or Dallas Buyer's Club
Nebraska has director but Dallas Buyer's Club scored a crucial editing nomination.
Out Captain Phillips, although it still appears reasonably strong in technical, below the line areas, Her (that might still win Original Screenplay and even Score), Philomena.
If I actually gave an opinion it would be 12 YAS, Wolf of Wall Street, Her, American Hustle, and Gravity. Nebraska is fine, Philomena is sight unseen but nothing is drawing me to it, Captain Phillips was meh (look at the Danish film A Hijacking for something that feels more sincere and interested in its subject matter), and Dallas Buyer's Club just gets a big shrug from me.
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