It's all very hard to understand: Turkey. Syria. Libya. Egypt. Arab Springs that put repressive Islamists in power. Fatah/Hamas. A mess in Iraq, which we may or may not have created, but which we certainly didn't do anything to improve. A tinder box in Pakistan. Power struggles in Iran that very few in America can even explain, let alone predict what might happen.
The only constant seems to be that in every one of these countries there are people like this young man who wish only to be free, and very little evidence of that being possible.
I wish the best to this young man, and to your friend.