Whacked Out Ricky

[SonofMammaMiaSam]

Posted: 8/8/05 at 8:57am

All political eyes on Santorum

By Dick Polman

Inquirer Political Analyst


While the power-challenged Democrats try to figure out how they can seize control of the U.S. Senate next year, and while the Republicans try to figure out how they can expand their majority, one fact is indisputably clear:

Both parties must first deal with Rick Santorum.

A vulnerable conservative facing reelection in a swing state, Santorum is the most pivotal figure on the '06 national map. The Democrats, to win the chamber, need six Senate seats now held by Republicans, and Santorum's seat is priority one. And while the Republicans would love to add five new members, enough to give them a filibuster-proof Senate, that won't happen unless they save Santorum.

No wonder the vibes in Pennsylvania are already so intense, 16 months shy of Election Day - fueled in part by Santorum's recent pronouncements about working mothers (he thinks they should stay home) and the fury of critics who are calling him "whacked out," "weird" and "stupid" (he's keeping track by logging the insults on his BlackBerry).

Crucial contests will be staged in a dozen states - including Ohio, Montana, Minnesota, Florida and Nebraska - but Santorum is the talk of Washington, because the strategists know that his race is not just about which party runs the Senate in January 2007. It's also about the presidential race of 2008.

Republican pollster David Winston, who works with Santorum and the Senate GOP on policy issues, said the other day: "This is the race of 2006, with huge long-term national implications. If Santorum, for the third time, can win as a conservative in a blue state, if he can demonstrate that his brand of 'compassionate conservatism' can play well, that clearly would tell us that Pennsylvania will be in play for us" in the next presidential campaign.

The Senate race has barely begun, yet already both sides are spinning the results. Some Democratic strategists foresee a Santorum defeat as a symbolic repudiation of the Bush agenda. The problem, however, is that plenty of Democrats aren't necessarily convinced that State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr. has the requisite campaign skills to defeat Santorum. And that could be disastrous for the party's national strategy.

"It's going to be a challenge to win back the Senate," said national strategist Jenny Backus, who wouldn't comment specifically about Casey. "We'll need a strong wind at our back. If you look at the map, it's not great for us" - referring to the fact that four of the targeted Republican incumbents hail from red states that supported President Bush in 2004, and another target is an open seat in red-state Tennessee.

"Santorum is priority one for a couple reasons," she said. "If our message is, 'The Washington Republicans are abusing power, and pushing an agenda for a select few,' Santorum is a good poster child for that. He gives us a chance to play offense."

Playing and winning, however, are not synonymous. Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said she believed that "this race will be tougher than Democrats think. Does Casey excite the Democratic base? He's against abortion, and the base is pro-choice. He has the wrong profile for the party's big liberal donors."

By contrast, she argued, "Santorum is a great campaigner who excites his base" - and it's the diehards who tend to be the most motivated voters in midterm elections. "Their take on Santorum is, 'Agree or disagree with him, you still know where he stands,' which is the same asset Bush had in 2004."

The future is a mystery, however, and nobody can foretell the urgent issues of autumn '06. Winston, the Republican strategist, cited the "constant casualties" in Iraq as a wild card; in Pennsylvania, Santorum may be forced to play defense if the war is still hot. But in other states where GOP incumbents have been targeted by the Democrats, the issue mix might be quite different. Examples:

Ohio. Sen. Mike DeWine is vulnerable, in part because the state GOP is a mess. A top GOP fund-raiser has been accused of bilking millions from the state workers' compensation fund, and polls show that the scandal has soured voters on the party.

Meanwhile, Ohio has been hit hard by deaths in Iraq; last Tuesday, in a congressional election, an antiwar Democrat and Iraq vet lost by only 4 points in a district that typically rejects Democrats by 30 points.

Montana. Sen. Conrad Burns has been linked to Republican super-lobbyist Jack Abramoff, the target of three federal probes of allegations that he bilked wealthy American Indian clients. Abramoff and his tribal clients have given a lot of money to Burns, who last year steered a lucrative federal grant to one of those tribes.

Democrats think Montana may be ripe for the "abuse-of-power" message. Voters there even elected a Democratic governor and legislature last year.

Rhode Island. Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee is up for reelection in one of the nation's bluest states. He's too conservative for the Democratic voters who dominate the electorate - and insufficiently conservative for many of the Republican voters

Chafee could be in big trouble if the Democratic Party unites behind a worthy candidate, a scenario that may prove elusive.

Tennessee. Some analysts think the Democrats could stage a surprise here. This seat will be open, because Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is leaving, and the Democrats are tapping U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. as their candidate.

Ford is a dynamic African American congressman from a prominent political family; he's already airing TV ads.

The problem is that the South has never elected an African American to the Senate. Another potential problem is that his uncle, a Memphis politician, was indicted by a federal grand jury on bribery charges.

The Democrats also think they have a shot in Arizona, where their candidate, Jim Pederson, is a rich real estate developer who can finance his own race.

But their big weakness nationally is that some Democratic seats are vulnerable to a GOP takeover. If they hope to achieve a Senate majority, they can't afford to lose any of their own - yet the Republicans could pick up a seat in Minnesota (no longer the liberal stronghold of yesteryear) and even in Florida (if candidate Katherine Harris, of Florida recount fame, surprises the skeptics who believe she is too divisive to win).

But, above all, a Santorum victory would be the silver bullet that destroys the Democrats. Privately, some of them believe that Casey's double-digit poll lead is a mirage and that Santorum has been smart to spend the summer touting his defense of the family. It's a theme that rouses his base and potentially connects with parents who, while wary of his most outspoken views, nevertheless share his concerns about the entertainment culture's influence on children.

"The point is, Santorum is saying something, consistently - while Casey isn't saying much," a top Washington Democratic strategist said privately. "And that gets back to the problem we still have as a party. The Republicans have a broad cultural message, and they know how to communicate it. We still don't know how to communicate what we believe in. We've lost our self-confidence."

Indeed, Democratic strategists James Carville and Stan Greenberg warned in a July memo that their party was "at risk of making only modest gains in 2006" because they "are firing on only half their cylinders." As a result, voters are still "uncertain about [our] convictions."

Which is why GOP strategists such as David Winston don't seem worried.

"Historically, Senate elections have been tough for the incumbent party, particularly in a president's sixth year," he said. "But we have ideas to run on, whereas the Democrats are basically anti-Bush. Or anti-Santorum.

"Voters want ideas, and right now, we're still the ones driving the agenda."