broadwaysfguy said: "hogans wisdom pervails again
ask yourself with each of these shows, who is the ideal perfect fit customer?
I feel like that's a selective reading of things with the benefit of hindsight. So, for instance, if you were trying to predict who might see the show before deciding to bring it to Broadway.
War Paint- Women, who make up the majority of the Broadway going audience, many of whom use makeup and have some opinion on the feminist and/or female empowerment themes the show was supposed to deal with.
Groundhog Day- Fans of Matilda, which had an almost 4 year run on Broadway and a lot of critical praise. (Granted, I know there are a lot of reasons why Matilda and GHD are not equivalent but I'm making the same selective argument.) An Olivier-award winning transfer with an Oliver-winning star.
Bandstand- People who like vaguely patriotic period musicals (though that didn't help On The Town). People who like dance-heavy shows (difficult to quantify). People who are always dreamcasting Laura Osnes for everything.
(The reason I've stayed away from Bandstand is that what I've heard of the music doesn't particularly evoke the period, I don't really like either of the leads, and I've heard very mixed word of mouth on the quality of the book, score, and overall show.)
Come from away- As ChildofEarth said, this one didn't seem like it was going to work coming in. The connection to 9/11 actually turned off a lot of people in spite of positive word of mouth out of town. But it resonated with audiences.