Dreamgirls' Oscar/Golden Globe Chances

[AberJ01]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 6:02am

Well it's finally my favorite season. Oscar season. We'll have the Golden Globes nominations announced Dec 14th, the SAG awards nominations anounced Jan 4th, the Academy Award nominations announced Jan 23rd, and finally the wonderful gold men will be handed out on Feb 25th. This is the three months of excitement. Now, as big of an Oscar fan as I am, I suppose this year comes with some extra excitement. This year, we have Dreamgirls. Now while I was not one of the lucky few to see the film last night in advanced screenings, still this year with Dreamgirls in the running it leaves me with a movie that this year while when the nominations are being announced I'll be pulling for this movie to wrap up as many as it can. Here are some of my predictions for this awards season when it comes to Dreamgirls. Feel free to agree/disagree and comment away.

Golden Globes- No doubt that the Hollywood Foreign Press will eat this movie up. Not to mention musicals I suppose have a slight edge since they don't have to compete against the dramatic films in this awards show. We all always look to the Golden Globes to be the big test to help predict what will happen at the Oscars, and this year will be no different. No doubt it'll win Best Musical/Comedy, in fact it'll win by a landslide. The biggest question will be what the Hollywood Foreign Press decides to do with Jennifer Hudson and Beyonce. Dreamworks is pushing Beyonce for Leading Actress, and Jennifer Hudson for Supporting Actress, but that's really the same thing that happened in 2002 with Chicago, and we still had Renee Zellweger and Catherine Zeta-Jones competing together for Leading Actress at the Golden Globes, but in seperate categories at the Oscars. My gut tells me they will leave Jennifer Hudson in the Supporting category, which she'll easily win, but if they do put her in Leading she'll still get the nomination, meaning Beyonce will more than likely not be nominated at all. Now, if Hudson isn't nominated in Leading, Beyonce will get nominated, but guaranteed for sure will not be able to win the category. BUT... what happens if Hudson is nominated for Best Leading Actress? She'd be up against more than likely Meryl Streep and Annette Benning. Ouch. People out there are convinced she'd have a hard time beating Meryl Streep, but seriously how many more awards can you give the woman, and furthermore the Golden Globes seem to love to give the newcomer the award, especially in the TV categories. So basically as far as the Golden Globes are concerned, I don't think it matters, Leading or Supporting I don't think anyone will beat Jennifer Hudson, but all hope is that they leave it alone, and put the two where DreamWorks is campiagning them to be.

OSCARS- After a lot of thinking, it's definitely going to be one of those years that no matter what Dreamgirls is nominated in it's going to have to be considered for the win. Furthermore, I think it's safe to say that it'll more than likely end up with the most nominations out of any film this Oscar season. It's a lock for a nomination in Best Picture, but nowhere near a lock to win... YET. The Departed will definitely end up being a contender. Only time will tell who will win. Best Director is going to be hard for Bill Condon as well. While he deserves so much credit for the film, will the Oscars deny Martin Scorsese again? I have a feeling they may end up giving Bill Condon the Adapted Screenplay Oscar so he doesn't leave empty handed and award Scorsese after years and years of nominations and no wins. Again time will tell. Sadly as far as Leading Actor/Actress are concerned, I don't think there's a chance at all of nominations. Beyonce has a better shot than Jamie Foxx, but the competition is tough and neither will end up nominated. Jennifer Hudson will be pushed to Supporting Actress even if the Golden Globes consider her Leading, just like Catherine Zeta-Jones was. Trust me, DreamWorks won't suddenly change it's campaigning either and change Hudson to Leading. If it did happen, do I think Hudson could beat Helen Mirren? I do. I think it would be very unlikely, but Helen Mirren vs. Jennifer Hudson would surely loosen the grasp Helen Mirren has on the Leading Actress Oscar quite a bit, and if she's as good as everyone is saying I think she could very much so beat Mirren. Again though, look for Hudson in Supporting, and look for her to win. No other actress contending for the Supporting Actress Oscar has been talked up as much as Jennifer Hudson, and with everyone saying how much she is what you walk out of the movie theater remembering the most out of the film, I can't imagine anyone beating her. Supporting Actor will probably come down to Jack Nicholson vs. Eddie Murphy, and more than likely if Dreamgirls takes the Best Picture and Director awards, this is probably where The Departed will get it's award, plus it's Jack. Eddie could win if they can't imagine giving Jack another award, but still, it's Jack.

So as of right now I'd definitely say it's a lock for nominations in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and more than likely a group of nominations in the technical categories. Unless the buzz of this film skyrockets after it's release, and it pulls a Chicago where everyone on the planet knows it'll win, I'd say for now that the only lock to win for now is Jennifer Hudson. Could change, but that's my prediction for now...

Updated On: 11/17/06 at 06:02 AM

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 6:20am

This is a Broadway message board. Aren't there movie message boards out there where you could post this?

[bwayondabrain]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 6:35am

well, its Broadway related.

I really hope all this Oscar buzz for the film comes true. Especially the Jennifer Hudson one! :) I'd love to see her win an Oscar this year!

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 12:16pm

That does seem to be the vibe on the awards buzz, Aber. Another exciting year for musical theatre fans!

[lildogs]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 1:00pm

There is no way in heaven or on earth that Hudson could/would beat Mirren. I do think Hudson is the Supp. Actress front-runner though, and likely that's the category they'll promote.

You should check out oscarwatch.com for more insight and info.

And I would love to see Eddie finally get nominated.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 1:05pm

I think Eddie's nom is considered a lock. Not the the current frontrunner, but I can totally see his winning.

[lildogs]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 1:06pm

Sure--it's a "comeback" film for him and he was snubbed with NUTTY PROF. and if the movie is a hit, he'll be in for sure. I think maybe Haley or Carell might just pull it off too.

[Rentaholic2]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 2:56pm

"There is no way in heaven or on earth that Hudson could/would beat Mirren."

Kinda like there was no way on heaven or on earth that "Crash" could/would beat "Brokeback Mountain"...

[lildogs]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 3:02pm

Never said that sailor...nor did oscarwatch.com.

Anytime you want to go toe-to-toe on Oscar history, saddle up!

Hudson is completely unknown to an enormous swath of Academy voters, while Mirren is a multiple nominee, playing a real-life person in a film that is essentially HER. The Academy also tends to favor British actors and when a young ingenue DOES win, she is STUNNING, and while I think Hudson is attractive, she isn't by Hollywood's standards, a hottie like Swank, Theron, Berry, or to go back even further, Janet Gaynor or Audrey Hepburn.


Of course, I COULD be wrong, but it's a chance I'm VERY willing to take.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 3:05pm

Jennifer Hudson will not be against Mirren.

[Carl Magnum]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 3:11pm

The oscars are a joke. Shouldn't we all be more thrilled for the movie doing well and being a good representation of the piece rather than what fake awards and tin statues it might win?

[lildogs]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 3:18pm

I really don't care about whether the movie does well or not--the Oscars are my gay world series, bogus though it may be.

I just like handicapping odds and seeing how it all falls down.

But I am not someone who thinks they "mean" anything.

[Carl Magnum]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 3:20pm

I always thought the TONYS were the gay world series?

[lildogs]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 3:37pm

Not for me...I was too far removed from that scene in 1987 when I first started getting into Oscars.

Plus I was one of those little queers with the Marilyn, Vivien and Greta posters and the de rigeur scrapbook, so the movies were more my thing.

[Julian2]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 3:38pm

Nope, the Oscars are the Gay World Series, the Tonys are the Gay Oscars.

And what about a Best Song nom for Listen, or one of the other new songs? I have been hearing buzz about nom's for that.

[americanboy99]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 6:58pm

GOSH!

WANNA BE A FOSTER- take a nice pill sometime. you could really use it.

[jv92]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 8:13pm

I for one would love to see Hudson loose and have Catherine O'Hara take the stage to accept her Oscar for For Your Consideration, but that won't happen.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 9:45pm

I really don't care about whether the movie does well or not--the Oscars are my gay world series, bogus though it may be.

I find it funny that you deem the Oscars the gay world series, when in fact, the Oscars rarely, if ever, recognize OUT gay actors' performances. Like the year that OUT actor Rupert Everett received equal if not more critical acclaim and awards recognition for the positively portrayed gay character he played in MY BEST FRIEND'S WEDDING than straight actor Greg Kinnear did for his "down on his luck, sad, lonely, gay bashed" character stint in AS GOOD AS IT GETS, and Kinnear landed an Oscar nomination while Everett was ignored, because as we all know, it's just so much more "challenging" and "risky" for a straight actor to play a gay character than for a gay actor to essentially get on screen and play himself. Gay PEOPLE (read: real live human beings, not characters) are treated as though they are INVISIBLE by the Academy Awards.

Updated On: 11/17/06 at 09:45 PM

[Raviolisun]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 9:51pm

I am so, so happy to hear that Dreamgirls is great. I think I'm seeing it ten times the day it comes out.

[StageManager2]

Posted: 11/17/06 at 11:05pm

Is that even possible?

[Rentaholic2]

Posted: 11/18/06 at 4:11am

"Never said that sailor...nor did oscarwatch.com.
Anytime you want to go toe-to-toe on Oscar history, saddle up!"

I didn't mean to imply that you or oscarwatch.com did say that. But the common opinion was that BBM couldn't be beat, and it won almost every major award prior to the Oscars. My point was simply that even things that seem like locks can surprise us.

[MrMidwest]

Posted: 11/18/06 at 4:42am

The For Your Consideration Ads and all that stuff are out there. So if people who vote for the award shows see the movie and enjoy it and vote for it, then fantastic, but I'm not going to give it much thought right now.