If the strike vote is set to begin process 10/21, then barring a Lockout by the Producers the shows will be safe until at least 11/1 by process of the 10 day Strike Vote. By law Strike notice of 48 hours has to given to the Producers. 10 Days is more than enough time for notice and resolution and puts the Strike where it should be most effective - the holiday busy season.
Right now it's a game to see who blinks first.
But if a Strike vote is affirmative, then the scales are actually tipped to the Producers and sets the stage (no pun intended) for a Lockout , which can occur any time and without notice in most cases. A Lockout is actually preferential to the Producers because they can Lockout the bargaining Union, but all other non-bargaining Union members must report to work, unless that connected work is deemed unsafe; which is possible in this case. But Producers can also legally hire 'temporary laborers' to do the work required. Also, there's a misconception that the Producers will have to pay employees - not so. The Locked Out laborers can collect unemployment, unlike a Strike where no compensation of any sort is required. This is one of the reasons Lockout has become a more popular bargaining tool in recent years. While the employers Unemployment Rate may go up temporarily, there is no real out of pocket expense other then lost revenue, which again, in this case may be considerable, depending on what other Unions are effected and if temporary labor is used. The thing to remember about a Lockout is that 'non-bargaining' Union members are required to report to work and temporary labor can be used to avoid a complete work stoppage.
If a Strike is affirmed and executed - then the non-negotiating Unions can legally refuse to cross Picket Lines. But bare in mind - regarding a called and organized Strike that no salaries are 'required' to be paid - including to those Union members who are non-negotiating but refuse to cross the Picket Lines, although health benefits if in place must remain. It's also the reason once a Strike is executed that negotiations seem to move along and resolution is reached quickly. My experience is that Striking Union workers are not likely to allow their Non-Striking Union Brothers and Sisters to go without for too long because of their own grievences. They're simply not that selfish. Also, the Producers will then have a right to seek arbitration through an outside source. Again, my experience is that arbitration tends to favor management rather then labor, which is why it's rarely called for by the Union.
From what I'm reading, and only from what I'm reading; having been involved on both sides of the negotiation table for over 25 years; whether a Lockout or Strike, this dispute would favor the Producers. Although as is typical of situations like these, both sides will claim victory after the new contract is voted on and ratified. It's alot of chest pounding and bulls**t, which is why I retired from it. The only ones who ever seem to pay the price are the rank and file workers. I know that's an unpopular opinion and I base it solely on my own experience and not anyone elses. That said - I wish my Union Brothers and Sisters much luck.
Updated On: 10/14/07 at 09:58 AM
