Odds to Win Tonys Set by Vegas and Top Journos HERE!

[CurtainRaiser]

Posted: 5/30/03 at 10:11pm

O, ANTONIO! HOLLYWOOD'S MACHO BANDERAS WILL BE TROUNCED BY BROADWAY'S BELOVED DRAG HAG AT THE TONY AWARDS


GoldDerby.com's Experts Give "Hairspray's" Harvey Fierstein Even Odds to Best the Star of "Nine" (6 to 5 Odds). "Hairspray" and "Take Me Out" Are Waaaaaaay Out Front in the Races for Best Musical and Play



NEW YORK - "Look for a rinse, set, and match for 'Hairspray,'" says Backstage managing editor David Sheward, who is one of the 7 experts at GoldDerby.com who give the Broadway megahit 1-to-9 odds to win the Tony Award for Best Musical on Sunday, June 8 (CBS, 8 p.m. eastern).

The real drama at the Tonys will be in such top races as Best Actor in a Musical (Antonio Banderas in his Broadway debut in "Nine" vs. Harvey Fierstein in a dress in "Hairspray") and Best Actress (can Bernadette Peters survive the backlash against her for missing performances of "Gypsy"?), according to GoldDerby.com experts: Melissa Bernardo (Entertainment Weekly), Elysa Gardner (USA Today), Mike Kuchwara (Associated Press), Tom O'Neil (In Touch Weekly and host of GoldDerby.com), Patrick Pacheco (Show People), Michael Riedel (New York Post) and David Sheward (Backstage). The pundits' forecasts are translated into numerical odds by David Scott of America's Line (www.americasline.com), a syndicated newspaper odds column penned by veteran sports journalist Benjamin Lee Eckstein and famed Vegas oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough.

Fierstein gets slightly better odds (even) over Banderas (6 to 5). "I think the warmth and authenticity of Harvey's Edna Turnblad surprised and touched people outside his fan base," says Gardner. But Sheward disagrees, claiming that Banderas' "role is more dominant in 'Nine' and Fierstein has won three times before."

GoldDerby's 7 pundits are even more divided over the race for Best Actress in a Musical, with 4 opting for "Hairspray's" Marissa Jaret Winokur (9 to 10 odds) and 3 forecasting a win by "Gypsy's" Bernadette Peters (even), who's a controversial contender because she missed many performances due to a respiratory infection. The New York Post's Riedel backs Winokur because he believes Peters is miscast in the immortal role of Mama Rose and that his rival newspaper, The New York Times, has overhyped the production. But Show People's Pacheco disagrees about the Broadway darling's chances: "Bernadette Peters will pull it out. The voters know that it's an Everest of a role and they'll have sympathy for her vocal problems. And in a head to head contest between veteran and newcomer, the veteran almost always wins with Tony Voters."

Pacheco is among the GoldDerby pundits predicting that Brian Dennehy ("Long Day's Journey into Night") will win Best Actor in a Play (6-to-5 odds), but the minority view is expressed by Gardner, who boldly says, "I'll take a leap and say Eddie Izzard, who I think surprised and impressed a lot of people." Izzard, star of "A Day in the Death of Joe Egg," gets 5-to-4 odds.

Baseball hit "Take Me Out" has hugely favorable odds (1 to to come out swinging as Best Play. Says Entertainment Weekly's Bernardo: "While the Yankees are in a major-league slump, their onstage incarnations -- the Empires of 'Take Me Out' -- are going strong."

Tony-watchers are invited to dish award predictions with the GoldDerby experts on Monday night, June 2, at a panel presented by New York University from 7 to 9 p.m. at 11 West 42nd Street, Room 1027 (10th floor). Tickets are available at the door for $15 or telephone for reservations: 212-998-7171.


GOLDDERBY.COM ODDS TO WIN TONY AWARDS:

BEST PLAY
Take Me Out - 1/8
Enchanted April - 5/1
Vincent in Brixton - 30/1
Say Goodnight Gracie - 40/1

BEST MUSICAL
Hairspray - 1/9
Movin' Out - 5/1
A Year with Frog and Toad - 30/1
Amour - 50/1

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Nine - 3/2
La Bohème - 8/5
Gypsy - 9/5
Man of La Mancha - 50/1

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Long Day's Journey Into Night - 1/7
A Day in the Death of Joe Egg - 9/2
Dinner at Eight - 35/1
Frankie and Johnny in the Clair de Lune - 40/1

BEST LEAD ACTOR IN A PLAY
Brian Dennehy, Long Day's Journey into Night - 6/5
Eddie Izzard, A Day in the Death of Joe Egg - 5/4
Paul Newman, Our Town - 6/1
Brian Bedford, Tartuffe - 40/1
Stanley Tucci, Frankie and Johnny in the Clair de Lune - 50/1

BEST LEAD ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Vanessa Redgrave, Long Day's Journey into Night - 1/6
Fiona Shaw, Medea - 9/2
Victoria Hamilton, A Day in the Death of Joe Egg - 30/1
Clare Higgins, Vincent in Brixton - 40/1
Jayne Atkinson, Enchanted April - 50/1

BEST LEAD ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Harvey Fierstein, Hairspray - Even
Antonio Banderas, Nine - 6/5
Brian Stokes Mitchell, Man of La Mancha - 8/1
John Selya, Movin' Out - 40/1
Malcolm Gets, Amour - 50/1

BEST LEAD ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Marissa Jaret Winokur, Hairspray - 9/10
Bernadette Peters, Gypsy - Even
Elizabeth Parkinson, Movin' Out - 15/1
Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio, Man of La Mancha - 40/1
Melissa Errico, Amour - 50/1

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Denis O'Hare, Take Me Out - 1/7
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Long Day's Journey into Night - 6/1
Daniel Sunjata, Take Me Out - 30/1
Robert Sean Leonard, Long Day's Journey into Night - 40/1
Thomas Jefferson Byrd, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 50/1

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Linda Emond, Life (x) 3 - 1/5
Michele Pawk, Hollywood Arms - 6/1
Marian Seldes, Dinner at Eight - 8/1
Christine Ebersole, Dinner at Eight - 40/1
Kathryn Meisle, Tartuffe - 50/1

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Dick Latessa, Hairspray - 1/6
John Dossett, Gypsy - 7/1
Corey Reynolds, Hairspray - 8/1
Michael Cavanaugh, Movin' Out - 40/1
Keith Roberts, Movin' Out - 50/1

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Jane Krakowski, Nine - 8/5
Chita Rivera, Nine - 9/5
Mary Stuart Masterson, Nine - 2/1
Tammy Blanchard, Gypsy - 40/1
Ashley Tuttle, Movin' Out - 50/1

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Robert Falls, Long Day's Journey into Night - 1/5
Joe Mantello, Take Me Out - 6/1
Deborah Warner, Medea - 7/1
Laurence Boswell, A Day in the Death of Joe Egg - 50/1

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Jack O'Brien, Hairspray - 3/2
Baz Luhrmann, La Bohème - 7/4
David Leveaux, Nine - 11/5
Twyla Tharp, Movin' Out - 50/1

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Hairspray - 1/8
A Year with Frog and Toad - 5/1
Flower Drum Song - 30/1
Amour - 40/1

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Hairspray - 1/8
A Year with Frog and Toad - 5/1
Amour - 30/1
Urban Cowboy - 40/1


BREAKDOWN OF CATEGORIES PER PUNDIT
Melissa Bernardo (Entertainment Weekly), Elysa Gardner (USA Today), Mike Kuchwara (Associated Press), Tom O'Neil (In Touch Weekly and host of GoldDerby.com), Patrick Pacheco (Show People), Michael Riedel (New York Post), David Sheward (Backstage)

BEST PLAY
Take Me Out - Bernardo, Gardner, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Pacheco, Riedel, Sheward

BEST MUSICAL
Hairspray - Bernardo, Gardner, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Pacheco, Riedel, Sheward

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Gypsy - Pacheco
La Bohème - Bernardo
Nine - Gardner, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Riedel, Sheward

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Long Day's Journey Into Night - Bernardo, Gardner, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Pacheco, Riedel, Sheward

BEST LEAD ACTOR IN A PLAY
Brian Dennehy, Long Day's Journey into Night - O'Neil, Pacheco, Riedel, Sheward
Eddie Izzard, A Day in the Death of Joe Egg - Bernardo Gardner, Kuchwara

BEST LEAD ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Vanessa Redgrave, Long Day's Journey into Night - Bernardo, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Pacheco, Riedel, Sheward
Fiona Shaw, Medea - Gardner

BEST LEAD ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Antonio Banderas, Nine - Pacheco, Sheward
Harvey Fierstein, Hairspray - - Bernardo, Gardner, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Riedel

BEST LEAD ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Bernadette Peters, Gypsy - Gardner, Pacheco, Sheward
Marissa Jaret Winokur, Hairspray - Bernardo, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Riedel

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Denis O'Hare, Take Me Out - Bernardo, Gardner, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Pacheco, Riedel, Sheward

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Linda Emond, Life (x) 3 - Bernardo, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Pacheco, Riedel, Sheward
Michele Pawk, Hollywood Arms - Gardner

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Dick Latessa, Hairspray - Bernardo, Gardner, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Pacheco, Riedel, Sheward

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Jane Krakowski, Nine - Bernardo, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Riedel, Sheward
Chita Rivera, Nine - Gardner, Pacheco

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Robert Falls, Long Day's Journey into Night - Bernardo, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Pacheco, Riedel, Sheward
Deborah Warner, Medea - Gardner

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Baz Luhrmann, La Bohème - Bernardo
Jack O'Brien, Hairspray - Gardner, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Riedel, Sheward

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Hairspray- Bernardo, Gardner, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Pacheco,Riedel, Sheward

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Hairspray- Bernardo, Gardner, Kuchwara, O'Neil, Pacheco, Riedel, Sheward

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