Plays will NEVER die out completely, they just may no longer have the audience to sustain them on Broadway anymore, which is sort of a sad thing, but ultimately a reflection of the culture we have. Given astronomical ticket prices audiences understandably prefer to go with a sure thing, rather than the unknown, which is why we have so many musicals based on popular movies, so many jukebox musicals with scores consisting of popular song catalogues, so many revivals of well-known musicals and so many revivals of iconic plays, but so very few new original plays (and few of them ever turn a profit).
There used to be a large Broadway audience willing to see plays they'd never heard of by playwrights they'd never heard of -- especially back when the top ticket price for a play was $30 to $40 (which, believe it or not, was only a little more than a decade ago). As the top price inched up past $75 to now $90, we're seeing fewer and fewer people willing to spend that on three or four character play with one set -- no matter how great the reviews are or how many movie stars are above the title.
There's also been a sizeable shift in the composition of the audience. Up until a decade or two ago, two-thirds of the Broadway audience consisted of regular theatregoers from NYC and the tri-state area. Many of those were serious, even adventurous theatregoers who were willing to and did support challenging and thought-provoking non-musical theatre. Now, two-thirds of the audience is made up of tourists on vacation who prefer lighter fare and that change is reflected in the types of shows producers are now willing to invest in and present. And I think in the future, especially as ticket prices continue to increase, we're going to see the audience composition increasingly become even more tourist-heavy, with the result being fewer and fewer new, original challenging shows making their way onto Broadway.
But, none of that means the death knell of the straight play in New York. It has LONG been the case that off-Broadway and the not-for-profit realm have been the main province for new and groundbreaking work and that will continue to be the case in the future. The vast majority of the finest American new plays and Pulitzer winners in the last two decades (and MANY eventual Tony winners and nominees) have come from not-for-profit off-Broadway and regional theatres around the country. Several other first rate plays have come from the subsidized theatre in London. New York's major institutional theatres -- LCT, MTC, Playwrights, Vineyard, The Public, Roundabout, Atlantic, NYTW, BAM, Second Stage, et al -- all seem to be doing fairly well these days (after suffering something of a financial crisis after 9/11) and they will continue to be the primary source for provocative and interesting and risky new work in the city. While there may not be enough of an audience to support this kind of work on Broadway anymore, there certainly seems to more than enough serious theatregoers (many thousands, clearly) left to subscribe and attend productions by the city's main not-for-profits. And for that, we should all be grateful.
"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie
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"The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney