TONY PREDICTIONS - 6/5 - Tennessee vs. Nigeria

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 6/5/10 at 2:58pm

Hey, I didn't see any of these threads popping up. Here are my thoughts, post yours up too. It'll be fun.
The more stars, the more likely to win.

Best Play
In the Next Room (or The Vibrator Play) by Sarah Ruhl*
Next Fall by Geoffrey Nauffts***
Red by John Logan****
Time Stands Still by Donald Margulies**
-The momentum seems to be with Red here. If Time Stands Still had stood still on Broadway, it'd have a better shot. Next Fall is less flashy and more understated, which doesn't bode well for it.

Best Musical
American Idiot**
Fela!***
Memphis****
Million Dollar Quartet*
-This one's a nail-biter. In one corner, ladies and gents, is a decadent, artsy, original show that the critics loved. In the other, a tepidly reviewed, derivative yet charming book-musical with a talented cast. We'll throw it to Memphis for the time being, but nothing is set in stone. And oh, American Idiot. How far you have fallen.

Best Book of a Musical
Dick Scanlan and Sherie Rene Scott for Everyday Rapture***
Jim Lewis and Bill T. Jones for Fela!**
Joe DiPietro for Memphis****
Colin Escott and Floyd Mutrux for Million Dollar Quartet*
-Memphis is the only traditional book in here, and that counts for something. It counts for enough to edge it past Scott and Scanlan's charming book that may be too smart for its own good.

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Andrew Lippa (music and lyrics) for The Addams Family*
Adam Cork (music) and Lucy Prebble (lyrics) for Enron*
Branford Marsalis (music) for Fences*
David Bryan (music and lyrics) and Joe DiPietro (lyrics) for Memphis****
-Another default win for Memphis. The usually-inventive Lippa's entry is as bland as unsalted whole wheat pasta, while Enron and Fences are cute but aren't traditional. musical scores.

Best Revival of a Play
Fences****
Lend Me a Tenor**
The Royal Family*
A View from the Bridge***
-I still say All About Me could upset here. But otherwise, Fences all the way.

Best Revival of a Musical
Finian's Rainbow*
La Cage aux Folles****
A Little Night Music**
Ragtime***
-La Cage has got the raves, but don't be surprised if adoration for the long-closed Ragtime comes back in a big way.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
Jude Law in Hamlet*
Alfred Molina in Red****
Liev Schreiber in A View from the Bridge**
Christopher Walken in A Behanding in Spokane***
Denzel Washington in Fences****
-Another toughie, as the overpowering, tour-de-force star male leads in the season's probable Best Play and Revival go toe to toe. Denzel wins only because a Fences sweep seems very likely.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Viola Davis in Fences*****
Valerie Harper in Looped*
Linda Lavin in Collected Stories**
Laura Linney in Time Stands Still****
Jan Maxwell in The Royal Family***
-Since Dame Edna's not eligible, let's give it to Davis, who nearly upstages Denzel.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Kelsey Grammer in La Cage aux Folles*
Sean Hayes in Promises, Promises****
Douglas Hodge in La Cage aux Folles*****
Chad Kimball in Memphis**
Sahr Ngaujah in Fela!***
-Looks like Hodge has had this one in the bag for a while now, but look out for Hayes, whose hosting stint and Newsweek bash piece have raised his profile around town.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Kate Baldwin in Finian's Rainbow*
Montego Glover in Memphis****
Christiane Noll in Ragtime***
Sherie Rene Scott in Everyday Rapture**
Catherine Zeta-Jones in A Little Night Music*****
-Glover's got the Broadway Baby factor, and she seemed to walk right into this race when nobody was looking. But it'll still be Zeta-Jones, who's got better acting chops and a higher profile (although her absences don't help her).

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
David Alan Grier in Race***
Stephen McKinley Henderson in Fences****
Jon Michael Hill in Superior Donuts**
Stephen Kunken in Enron*
Eddie Redmayne in Red*****

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Maria Dizzia in In the Next Room (or The Vibrator Play)*
Rosemary Harris in The Royal Family**
Jessica Hecht in A View from the Bridge***
Scarlett Johansson in A View from the Bridge****
Jan Maxwell in Lend Me a Tenor*****

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Kevin Chamberlin in The Addams Family*
Robin de Jesús in La Cage aux Folles**
Christopher Fitzgerald in Finian's Rainbow***
Levi Kreis in Million Dollar Quartet*****
Bobby Steggert in Ragtime****
-This one's a real crapshoot. Kreis is doing an impersonation, but it's a damned good one and this is an incredibly weak category.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Barbara Cook in Sondheim on Sondheim***
Katie Finneran in Promises, Promises*****
Angela Lansbury in A Little Night Music****
Karine Plantadit in Come Fly Away*
Lillias White in Fela!*
-Cook's category placement screwed over not just her, but Lansbury. Finneran's fans will take her over the top.

Best Scenic Design of a Play
John Lee Beatty for The Royal Family**
Alexander Dodge for Present Laughter*
Santo Loquasto for Fences****
Christopher Oram for Red***

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Marina Draghici for Fela!***
Christine Jones for American Idiot****
Derek McLane for Ragtime**
Tim Shortall for La Cage aux Folles*

Best Costume Design of a Play
Martin Pakledinaz for Lend Me a Tenor***
Constanza Romero for Fences****
David Zinn for In the Next Room (or The Vibrator Play)**
Catherine Zuber for The Royal Family***

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Marina Draghici for Fela!**
Paul Tazewell for Memphis*
Matthew Wright for La Cage aux Folles***

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Neil Austin for Hamlet*
Neil Austin for Red***
Mark Henderson for Enron**
Brian MacDevitt for Fences****

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Kevin Adams for American Idiot****
Donald Holder for Ragtime*
Nick Richings for La Cage aux Folles**
Robert Wierzel for Fela!***

Best Sound Design of a Play
Acme Sound Partners for Fences****
Adam Cork for Enron**
Adam Cork for Red*
Scott Lehrer for A View from the Bridge***

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Jonathan Deans for La Cage aux Folles***
Robert Kaplowitz for Fela!****
Dan Moses Schreier and Gareth Owen for A Little Night Music**
Dan Moses Schreier for Sondheim on Sondheim*

Best Direction of a Play
Michael Grandage for Red***
Sheryl Kaller for Next Fall*
Kenny Leon for Fences****
Gregory Mosher for A View from the Bridge**

Best Direction of a Musical
Christopher Ashley for Memphis*
Marcia Milgrom Dodge for Ragtime**
Terry Johnson for La Cage aux Folles****
Bill T. Jones for Fela!***

Best Choreography
Rob Ashford for Promises, Promises**
Bill T. Jones for Fela!****
Lynne Page for La Cage aux Folles*
Twyla Tharp for Come Fly Away***

Best Orchestrations
Jason Carr for La Cage aux Folles***
Aaron Johnson for Fela!****
Jonathan Tunick for Promises, Promises**
Daryl Waters and David Bryan for Memphis*

[Steve2]

Posted: 6/5/10 at 3:26pm

Thanks for taking the time to put your thoughts down. It's important to note that in some categories, there is the "will win" vs "should win" factor.

[wickedfan11]

Posted: 6/5/10 at 3:39pm

I have some similar (and differing) opinions on my blog (http://musicaltheatreblog.wordpress.com).

[massofmen]

Posted: 6/5/10 at 5:30pm

why did ai fall? when was it on top? The only place it was revered was on this chat board by a bunch of people who love Michael Mayer and spring awakening.
So in actuality it didn't "Fall" it never got off the ground.

[MrJNLong]

Posted: 6/6/10 at 2:45am

BEST MUSICAL
Prediction: Fela!
My Wish: American Idiot
Will Be Angry If Wins: Memphis, MDQ

BEST PLAY
Prediction: Red
My Wish: Red
Will Be Angry If Wins: In the Next Room...but only kinda

BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
Prediction: La Cage
My Wish: Ragtime
Will Be Angry If Wins: A Little Night Music

BEST PLAY REVIVAL
Prediction: Fences
My Wish: A View From the Bridge
Will Be Angry If Wins: don't care

BEST LEAD ACTOR-MUSICAL
Prediction: Douglas Hodge
My Wish: don't really care
Will Be Angry If Wins: Chad Kimball...I would probably punch someone if that happens...

BEST LEAD ACTRESS-MUSICAL
Prediction: Catherine Zeta-Jones
My Wish: Christiane Noll
Will Be Angry If Wins: Montego Glover

BEST LEAD ACTOR-PLAY
Prediction: Alfred Molina
My Wish: Liev Schreiber
Will Be Angry If Wins: Christopher Walken...but only kinda...

BEST LEAD ACTRESS-PLAY
Prediction: Viola Davis
My Wish: Viola Davis
Will Be Angry If Wins: don't really care...

BEST FEATURED ACTOR-MUSICAL
Prediction: Bobby Steggert
My Wish: Bobby Steggert
Will Be Angry If Wins: Levi Kreis or Kevin Chamberlin

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS-MUSICAL
Prediction: Katie Finneran
My Wish: don't really care
Will Be Angry If Wins: don't really care

BEST FEATURED ACTOR-PLAY
Prediction: Eddie Redmayne
My Wish: Eddie Redmayne
Will Be Angry If Wins: anyone else

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS-PLAY
Prediction: Scarlett Johansson
My Wish: Scarlett Joihansson
Will Be Angry If Wins: Maria Dizzia (where did she come from?)

BEST DIRECTOR-MUSICAL
Prediction: Terry Johnson
My Wish: Marcia Milgram Dodge
Will Be Angry If Wins: Christopher Ashley

BEST DIRECTOR-PLAY
Prediction: Kenny Leon
My Wish: Gregory Mosher
Will Be Angry If Wins: all great in this category. Congrats to them all

Too tired to do the rest...

[A Grey Spring]

Posted: 6/6/10 at 1:32pm

Best Musical
Will win: Memphis
Should win: Fela!

Best Play
Will win: Red
Should win: Next Fall

Best Musical Revival:
Will win: La Cage aux Folles
Should win: Ragtime

Best Play Revival:
Will win: Fences
Should win: Fences

Best Actor- Musical:
Will win: Douglas Hodge, La Cage aux Folles
Should win: Sahr Ngaujah, Fela!

Best Actress- Musical:
Will win: Catherin Zeta-Jones, A Little Night Music
Should win: Christiane Noll, Ragtime

Best Actor- Play:
Will win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Should win: Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Actress- Play:
Will win: Viola Davis, Fences
Should win: Viola Davis, Fences

Best Featured Actor - Musical:
Will win: Levi Kreis, Million Dollar Quartet
Should win: Bobby Steggert, Ragtime

Best Featured Actress - Musical:
Will win: Katie Finneran, Promises, Promises
Should win: Katie Finneran, Promises, Promises

Best Featured Actor - Play:
Will win: Eddie Redmayne, Red
Should win: Eddie Redmayne, Red

Best Featured Actress - Play:
Will win: Jan Maxwell, Lend Me a Tenor
Should win: Jan Maxwell, Lend Me a Tenor

Best Director - Musical:
Will win: Bill T. Jones, Fela!
Should win: Marcia Milgram Dodge, Ragtime

Best Director - Play:
Will win: Michael Grandage, Red
Should win: Kenny Leon, Fences