Trends of "Best Musical"

As awards season draws close, I just started thinking about what show will win Best Musical and realized that the Tony committee is truly unpredictable with its choices over the years. I came up with a list of the different types of "Best Musical" winners. Feel free to discuss!

1) Well-rounded show - a show that overall has the ability to succeed in all departments of a solid show: solid score, cast, design, book, etc.
Past Winner Example: Spamalot - may not have been the BEST but had the ability to deliver strongly in a lot of different ways
Past Loser Example: The Drowsy Chaperone
This year's example: Curtains - it may not have been the critical smash everyone was expecting but a strong, well rounded show could be enough to give it the Tony.

2) Innovation/Compositional Risk: recognizing its achievement in presenting a musical in a non-traditional way
Most Notable Winners: Rent, Avenue Q, Contact
Past Loser: Ring of Fire, Metamorphoses
This year's example: Spring Awakening - will tony voters fall in love with the show or the risks the creators took?

3) Basing Musical on Other Widely Successful Source(book, movie,true story etc.)
Past Winners: Jersey Boys, Les Miserables, Spamalot, Millie, The Producers, Hairspray, etc.
Past Loser: The Color Purple, Beauty and the Beast,
This year: Legally Blonde - the popular movie went well with audiences so it increases the chance of the tony voters liking it; also LoveMusik - a true story could wow tony voters; Grey Gardens - the wonderful documentary turned musical could persuade tony voters to fall for the realistic look on the like of the Beales(sp?); Mary Poppins - will the the Academy Award winning film with award winning songs melt the heart of tony voters with the new stage adaptation? (probably not.)


4)A Show Dependent on its Leading Lady/Man: a show in which the lead's performance really carries the show
Past Winner: Evita - was the tony for the show or Patti Lupone
Past Loser: Gypsy
This year: Grey Gardens - would it really be a major contender if wasnt for Christine Ebersole's tour-de-force performance?

5) Critics, Cash, and Lots of Awards prior to Tonys
Past Winner: The Lion King
Past Loser: The Drowsy Chaperone
This year's predictions for Best Musical Nods:

Spring Awakening - Winner; this year it will most likely go to the show with the critics and the innovative style but it is not written in stone

Curtains - Close Second but possible winner; it won some critics receiving mixed to positive reviews but it is without a doubt the most well rounded show of the season

Grey Gardens - really dont know where it falls but it has the critics, its past hit documentary and of course the breathtaking Christine Ebersole but isnt too well-rounded

Legally Blonde or Love Musik - guessing the voters and critics will fall for LoveMusik because of its stars and its not based on another damn movie but LB isnt out of the race because its a hip, bubbly show a la Hairspray.

Discuss! Thanks!

A BEST MUSICAL trend? The show is a very marketable one. Doesn't have to be THE most marketable, but shows like GREY GARDENS and CAROLINE, OR CHANGE and THE LIGHT IN THE PIAZZA don't have a chance.

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Well there's no need to really categorize anything like that - it's pointless - but AVENUE Q was most certainly not the most commercial show of 2004 - WICKED was.

This is an interesting year, as virtually none of the new musicals scream "COMMERCIAL!" Of course, MARY POPPINS does and LEGALLY BLONDE is still TBD, but between the frontrunners of CURTAINS, SPRING AWAKENING, and GREY GARDENS, it would be difficult to single out the most commercial show from those three, thereby giving GREY GARDENS a chance this year - where as before, (as Capn said) it wouldn't have had a chance.

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We don't know why AVENUE Q won...you can't always pin a reason on something like an award win. Not every voting member (or even the majority of a voting body) thinks and acts the same way all of the time. It's not a science. People speculate that Q won because of the promise of a tour.

The rightful winner that year was CAROLINE, OR CHANGE, which didn't have a single prayer because of it's complex nature. The race was always between WICKED and AVENUE Q - and though Q's promise of a tour certainly helped the win, I believe that it is the general consensus among the Broadway community that AVENUE Q is, by and large, a better musical than WICKED.

MARY POPPINS and LEGALLY BLONDE are certainly more tourable than CURTAINS, though CURTAINS probably wouldn't have trouble, either. This will be a tough race to call - though things will definitely start to clear up once the reviews for BLONDE and LOVEMUSIK come out.

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i just want spring awakening to win.
a lot.

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I agree with Munk's statement, the "commercial theory" certainly explains why so many shows win both the Best Book and Best Score awards but fail to garner the top prize (examples: INTO THE WOODS, FOLLIES, URINETOWN, DROWSY CHAPERONE, et al).

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