I'm a huge fan of Norm Lewis. Whatever statements I've made here regarding his chances at a Tony nomination and/or win, have nothing to do with the quality of his performance. I haven't seen it. I'm discussing these nominations purely in terms of competition. What hurts Lewis (in my opinion) is that once again, Audra McDonald received deservedly glowing reviews and so we're certain she's got a hot chance at BEST ACTRESS Tony. So many shows have two strong leads such as Porgy & Bess, but it's impossible for all duos in successful productions to get nominated. Often it's only one.
I fear that perhaps Norm will be nominated over Danny B, due to the size of the role - Buddy is really the smallest of the 4 leads in Follies, and while Burstein was excellent, Norm may get the nom over him because Porgy's a much bigger role.
And it is true about Matthew Broderick - nobody has any idea. He could turn out to be charming. His dancing was far from bad in The Producers.
I'm more interested about the women...
THOUGHTS: Jan Maxwell, FOLLIES Bernadette Peters, FOLLIES Elena Roger, EVITA Audra McDonald, PORGY & BESS ?, ?
SondheimFan5, I'd add Cristin Milioti and Kelly O'Hara to the list of women. If NICE WORK is a hit, then I say expect only one of the women from FOLLIES to get a nomination.
SondheimFan-I tend to agree with your prediction that both ladies from Follies will get a nod.
I think it will be:
Jan Maxwell Cristina Miloti or Kelli O'Hara Audra McDonald Bernadette Peters Elena Roger
And I think that Elena Roger or Audra McDonald will be going home with the award.
As for the males, Danny Burstein will be nominated. And I think he may well win. His performance really was incredible-it didn't feel like a featured role, and was truly an incredible turn by a highly gifted actor. It's time for him-he's a very deserving actor and I think his turn has come. (I love, love, love Raul Esparza, but I think it's Danny Burstein's year. I also think, as I said before, they will want to honor Follies, and this is the place to do it.)