I'd say we're looking at
Comedy series - MF
Lead actor - Baldwin
Lead actress - Dunham (she won the Globe, I think it's inevitable in spite of Fey's final season)
Supporting actor - O'Neill
Supporting actress - Bowen
O'Neill and Vergara may win because it seems to be 'their season,' although I think the Emmys are surprisingly quirky in that regard - they don't really seem to give sympathy awards, they really try to honor the best performances, as we've seen with surprise wins like Louis-Dreyfus for Veep and the repeats of Stonestreet and Bowen, all last year.
Everyone thought Jim Parsons was a lock for lead actor but Jon Cryer took it home because he simply had the best episode. O'Neill and Vergara were tipped to win for supporting slots, but again the two that won had the funniest performances submitted.
Bowen is a tough candidate to beat, however, she really is the core of MF, and I wouldn't be surprised if she took home a third consecutive Emmy for Claire Dunphy... Vergara is weak, and she really plays a archetypal 'caricature' as opposed to a multi-layered complex character like Claire. O'Neill has a shot at winning because his portrayal of Jay is also quite multifaceted - he's vulnerable, tough, loving, insecure all at the same time...
But Fey deserves to win for the final season of 30 Rock just to honor Liz Lemon one final time. But Steve Carrell failed to win the gong for his last season of The Office. But then Kelsey Grammer won another Emmy for his final Frasier season as did SJ Parker and Megan Mullally for their respective shows.
Updated On: 2/2/13 at 08:09 PM