The Lead Actor category is pretty competitive this year, which why I'm sure they are doing it.
Rourke, Langella and Penn are pretty much locks, with one of them likely to win.
And then Eastwood, Pitt, Jekins and DiCaprio are also vying for nods.
But there are some strong contenders in Supporting, too. What with Ledger and the Milk crew. I think getting a nod in either category would be about the same chances, but he would have a much better shot at winning in the Supporting category (especially since it is a lead role).
I, for one, am sick of studios pushing lead roles as supporting ones. Jennifer Hudson's win for Supporting Actress comes to mind.
"One no longer loves one's insight enough once one communicates it."
The opposite of creation isn't war, it's stagnation.