well, jrb, for better or worse (i happen to think it's worse), spain has handed al qaeda a victory. let me use the analogy of a hostage taking.
it's the publicly stated policy that the united states will not deal with terrorists who take hostages. now if it's your mom or dad or uncle or brother, etc., who's being held that seems like a particularly callous policy. however, to deal with such people gives what the p-shrinks like to call positive reinforcement. by dealing with them and giving them what they want, you encourage this kind of behavior.
now, it's one thing for a kidnapper to demand a million dollars of a wealthy individual to ransom a relative or friend. on the other hand, when an idealogical or theological organization takes hostages and demands wholesale changes in the foreign policy of a nation or group of nations, that's different.
in effect, that's what happened here. a group wanted to see aznar's gov't sent packing for its support of the invasion of iraq. they committed a particulary heinous and brazen attack that claimed many lives and shocked the world. they then used the media to clearly define their rationale for the attack: to punish spain for its involvement in iraq. they chose a date that would be clearly identified with the 2nd world trade center attack, 9/11, specifically for the fact that it would tie the events together in the people's minds. as a result, the aznar gov't (which was leading all in every single poll before the attack) is blamed and subsequently punished.
the end result is that al aqeda sees that they can by use of brutal force (which is the trademark of current terrorists, as opposed to those in the 70's and 80's, but that's another discussion) influence the internal politics of a country in their favor. which cannot be a good thing by any stretch of the imagination because it opens up the entire world and every democracy to an increased risk to election by massacre.
now there are people who are going to spin this every direction from here to sunday. they'll tell you that it was the aznar gov't blaming eta that led to their fall. they'll tell you that the people of spain were tired of the direction in which their country was headed. they'll tell you that the gov't would have fallen regardless of the attack. but the numbers don't lie. aznar's folks had this one sewn up until somebody started blowing up trains.
what does this mean to us? it means that i would expect a major, and i mean major, terrorist attack on u.s. soil either at one of the party conventions or in the last days before the election. who will it benefit? that i think depends on the timing and how kerry comes across immediately afterwards. if he manages to build the case prior to the event that bush is not acting to secure america from attack and is able to in the aftermath appear gracious, patriotic but just critical enough to let folks know he would have made a difference, it'll help him. the chances of that are, i think, pretty minimal. the american public trusts gw to protect them, for better or for worse, and it's true in every poll that's been taken. whether you agree with it or not, public perception is that gw's the guy to lead the country through a war, but that jfk2 is more concerned about their economic future.
thus, i expect that an attack would throw the election more towards bush, but i believe that it will already be tipped heavily in that direction before any such atttack. now, it is possible that if the attack occurs far enough away from the election that the constant negative media coverage of the president that will follow might negate kerry's own ability to stuff both of his feet into his mouth at once and provide a bit of a bounce for him. but in the end his own record will be his undoing as the public already sees him as a guy who votes not with his heart or his head, but based on what he thinks will help that most important constituent, john f. kerry.
p.s. france is now dealing with this first hand as a group has demanded the repeal of their (to my mind ridiculously racist and anti-religious) law banning religious symbols in public schools. how long do you think it will be before things start going boom in surrender monkey-land? then we'll see if they will stand by their (to my mind wrong-headed) convictions.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
Updated On: 3/17/04 at 09:43 AM
