Electoral College Predictions

[PalJoey]

Posted: 11/2/08 at 11:34pm

I hate pundits and I hate to jinx it, but wow.


Democrats:

Arianna Huffington: 318
Paul Begala: 325
Hilary Rosen: 333
Donna Brazile: 343
Eleanor Clift: 349
James Carville: 365
Democratic Average: 338.8

Republicans:

Alex Castellanos: 318
Matthew Dowd: 338
Ed Rollins: 352
George Will: 378
Republican Average: 346.5

Media

Chris Cillizza, Washington Post: 312
Craig Crawford, Congressional Quarterly: 333
David Gergen, CNN: 338
Mark Halperin, Time Magazine: 349
George Stephanopoulos, ABC: 353
Larry Sabato, UVA: 364
Media Average: 341.5

[brdlwyr]

Posted: 11/2/08 at 11:40pm

PJ, do not hate! It is our time!

[FindingNamo]

Posted: 11/2/08 at 11:41pm

I put all my eggs in the fivethirtyeight.com basket.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 3:48am

Woo hoo!

[javero]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 6:47am

I did not want to open this thread out of fear of jinxing it too.

However, if Alex Castellanos calls it 318 in the Dems favor, it's pretty daggone reassuring. Honestly, I wouldn't care if the count turns out to be only 270.

A win is a win!

[madbrian]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 6:54am

I agree with Javero, anything at or above 270 is OK with me. We don't want to get into the messy 269/269 split; Obama would likely win, but it would be a nightmare. I tend to think the outcome is going to be toward the high-end of the pundit predictions. McCain has put everything into PA, because he needs it for any realistic chance (even with it, he's a longshot).

[brdlwyr]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 10:22am

If you give McCain Florida, Ohio Missouri - Obama could still get 317!

[mominator]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 10:43am

Folks, it ain't over till it's over! I am hopeful for an Obama win, but let us not forget the elections of 2000 & 2004.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 11:01am

And 1988 and 1984 and 1980.

And 1972 and 1968.

[brdlwyr]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 11:06am

How about November 1996! I recall seeing Newt on the TV smiling and I said, "We did not lose the House did we?"

Oh yes we did! And, we had to see those idiots carrying around their little Contract with America sheets in the coat pocket! Awful time for Democrats!

[StageManager2]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 11:24am

It all boils down to tonight's game.

Redskins win = McCain

Redskins lose = Obama

[Auggie27]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 11:30am

Even Dan Bartlet this morning said "Obama's locked the electoral college, but the popular vote will be close."

[StockardFan]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 12:40pm

I'm really nervous about this election. A friend of mine at the gym said he bought a special bottle of wine for celebrating tomorrow night....I was like "DON'T JINX IT!"

[WOSQ]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 3:59pm

These things bring out my inner wonk.

Using electoral-vote.com

Solid Obama 238
Leaning Obama 73
Less Ohio (20) because I just cannot imagine Ohio going for a Democrat, still gives us 291 for Obama and this is without Florida or NC.

So my base mark is 291.

Mine is the lowest total for Obama out there but there is still 20 EVs of wiggle room.

Any Republican Presidential candidate who is not far ahead in Indiana, North Carolina, the Dakotas and Montana could be called in trouble. These states traditionally go to the GOP by major percentages, and they now are all labelled statistical ties. Even were McCain to pull this election out, his EV majority would be so shaky that his presidency might be lame from the start.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 4:19pm

Anything can happen. Polls and pundits have been wrong.

In Ohio, Public Policy Polling reports that Obama is "losing ground among white voters."

Last week MCain was winning them 49-46. Now it's 55-43.

And undecideds in Ohio are breaking for McCain, not Obama.

If this is happening in other southern and western states, it could make things closer than the pundits are predicting.

Pennsylvania gives me indigestion.

[javero]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 4:43pm

PJ--I'm banking on Biden and Hillary's roots/campaigning in PA being enough to keep that commonwealth in the blue column. I never suspected that OH would support any variation of an Obama ticket for sundry reasons. Call me crazy, but I still believe that VA will turn blue this year, and NC will be the big surprise.

It's FL and NV that give me indigestion. Both contain similar blocks tha are not completely enamored with Obama.

[The Boy From Ohio]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 4:47pm

fivethirtyeight.com & electoral-vote.com both have Obama ahead here in Ohio. I was at the Obama rally at Univ. of Cincinnati last night and a stadium full of people and myself think he will win.

[javero]

Posted: 11/3/08 at 5:03pm

"fivethirtyeight.com & electoral-vote.com both have Obama ahead here in Ohio. I was at the Obama rally at Univ. of Cincinnati last night and a stadium full of people and myself think he will win."

That's really encouraging!

[StageManager2]

Posted: 11/4/08 at 12:26am

Redskins lost, 23-6!


ETA: This is eerie. The satiric news website "23/6" indirectly predicted this back on October 2.

http://www.236.com/tag/McCain+lost

*TWILIGHT ZONE theme*

Updated On: 11/4/08 at 12:26 AM

[thetinymagic2]

Posted: 11/5/08 at 11:36pm

Gergen and Matthew Dowd win! 338.

[WOSQ]

Posted: 11/6/08 at 9:44am

I am so happy to be wrong.

It makes me all warm and cozy inside.