HD DVD A FAILURE

Well, I'm glad. I was really dreading having to switch again if it caught on.

Blu-Ray is going to fail anyway because they aren't going to manufacture porn.

Boy, I am glad I waited and didn't buy an HD DVD player. I will have to wait to see what happens.

---

Blu-ray is definitely going to stick around. But just because the format war is over, doesn't mean everything's rosy.

It's not. There's a hell of a lot of "damage control" that needs to be done now. So many of us avid DVD fans (myself included) decided to wait while a preferred format was embraced by the entire industry.

That "waiting period" did a HUGE amount of damage on the Home Ent. business. Not only were people waiting to see who'd win the HD war, they stopped buying most standard-def DVDs too. Sales in general declined dramatically last year... and that was a FIRST. Consumers are now out of the habit of buying their favorite discs when they come out. Rentals last year went up and sales went down. That's a big behavior change. Also the prices of regular DVDs went up by $3 to $5. A desperate attempt to keep numbers up. Studios also started the ugly and transparent practice of releasing "bare bones" over-priced titles initially, then "surprising" consumers with a special edition release, sometimes within the same year. It ticked a lot of people (again, myself included) off.

So... Yay! The Format War is over!

Now, the industry has to really WORK HARD to convince people to start buying anything again. I think it's going to take the better part of a year.

But we're also not going to see a huge wave or boom like we did for DVDs. That was a win-win situation for consumers. DVDs were a brand new format that was:

1. Cheaper to buy than VHS (after the first couple of years)
2. Lasted a lot longer than VHS (no wear and tear)
3. Looked much better than VHS (twice the resolution)
4. Had extra features on them (VHS had none)

With Blu-ray Discs, the only advantage they have over regular DVDs right now is picture quality, and for many that difference isn't too noticeable. The BD extras have more programming possibilities, but they still aren't that revolutionary. Not enough to make people replace their old discs.

Downloadables are coming... but as Craig pointed out, not for 5-10 years at the EARLIEST until you get a picture quality that would rival Blu-ray. And if you have a big HDTV, trust me, you notice it when it's bad. I'm still waiting for cable and satellite dish to actually broadcast in 1080p. Something they can't do yet. And even when the quality is finally up to par, where exactly would you store all these movies? BD movies currently weigh in at 20GB to 50GB each. Big changes have to happen first before downloadables will ever replace "hard copy" discs.

---

Updated On: 2/17/08 at 10:15 AM

The porn industry had nothing to do with the HD format war. In fact, most manufacturers in the industry aren't convinced that people want to count the blemishes and pores on their favorite X performers. And most consumers so "inclined" get their porno goods on line these days.

Not from any (if you'll excuse the expression) "hard copy."

Back in the early '80s, there was no Internet. The war between VHS & Betamax was decided by the porn industry. VHS was cheaper to produce, and Betamax (while superior in picture quality) cost a lot more. Porn sales on VHS went through the roof, and ultimately determined the victor.

The war between HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc was decided by the gaming industry. Sony's decision to practically give away their new BD players inside the PS3 instantly put the player in over a million homes. HD DVD tried, but could never catch up. It wasn't even close, even when the studios were divided as to which format to support. The consumers had already "voted" by buying PS3s.

---

Good, I didn't want to replace all my DVDs.

Bang!

HD DVD is dead

http://digitalbits.com/#mytwocents

---

Oh I'm sorry Dame. I thought the reporting of news as opposed to the speculation was important :)

---

and another story...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080219/ap_on_bi_ge/japan_toshiba

thank god i waited and waited and waited and never bought either player until the war was settled.

i have to agree with what BEST12 said... the past 2 years or so i have cut back dramatically in buying dvd's. i'm actually a huge movie guy myself. i own like 2k DVDs and used to buy several a month, sometimes a few a week. but the past few years instead of buying dvd's like i always did, i stopped. almost completely. because i didnt want to buy more "regular" dvds when i knew a better format was on the horizon. but i had to wait for the war to end... its been so long since i've bought a dvd...

Updated On: 2/19/08 at 09:18 AM

cubanpab---ages away? At least a decade or two, but I'm sure that's exactly what's in mind.

In the meanwhile, we'll have Blu-ray Discs. The last and best quality "hard copy" medium.

I just wonder how much it's going to catch on. I think that, moving forward, if I have a choice between standard def (DVD) and Blu-ray Disc (BD), I will buy a new release, if I want it, on BD.

But I'm not seeing the necessity to go out and replace all the 1,000+ DVDs I own with BD versions. In some cases, it's VERY hard to tell the difference. In others, it's a significant improvement.

Right now, my plan is to read on-line reviews, and pay very close attention to the criticisms of the new 1080p transfers. If it's a movie I REALLY want to own in hi-def, I'll buy a BD of it. Otherwise, no.

A recent example: Now that I'm a proud new owner of a PS3, I started looking around at the discs I'd want to own. So far... I thought a BD set of "That's Entertainment" sounded fantastic, until I read all the reviews, both from critics and consumers, saying the BD transfer isn't much better (if at all) than the DVD release that I already own. So, I saved my money. I have no intention of buying "That's Entertainment" on BD, because I'm convinced it isn't worth it. On the other hand, I decided to buy "Dreamgirls" on BD, because I heard the 1080p transfer was fantastic. So, I just bought a copy.

I'm sure the following movies will interest me, but unless I hear their transfers are a significant improvement over the DVD releases, I'm not going to get them:

(Upcoming BD releases in 2008 or 2009):

Wizard of Oz
Gone With the Wind
Gigi
An American In Paris

(Unannounced yet, but I'm interested):

Sound of Music
Citizen Kane
Lord of the Rings
Star Wars

I MAY get the Harry Potter films, but the DVDs already look great. And I'll probably buy Close Encounters in the months ahead, because it's the only way you can get all three versions (original, re-release and director's cut).

But as you can see, not too many films are on my list yet. I have to wonder then just how much BD will catch on with everyone else. I use myself as a good indication. Right now, I think sales are going to tap into the old "laser disc" market. The film buffs that MUST have the highest quality available. But for me, the avid fan but still average consumer, I'm not entirely sold yet. I'm excited to have the option, but I don't feel a wave of compulsion like I did before.

I still think that unless BOTH DVD and BD versions are released of all films day-and-date, moving forward, many consumers will wait before they buy. And that "wait" period is what will continue to hurt the Home Entertainment industry.

---

Best-

All valid points. Although I wonder if "Joe Consumer" is as concerned as you or I on quality difference and will just buy all new titles in Blu-ray because they can. Who really knows?

Like you - I weigh the value of buying or re-buying on blu-ray. In the same vane, I see some movies as NEEDING to be seen in the theater versus being more than OK to watch at home.

Many movies, like you said - are more than fine on DVD. Do I really need a blu-ray version of When Harry Met Sally? No. But for movies that have lush cinematography or special effects, etc - more likely...

---

Universal announced this morning they're switching to Blu-ray, so now that only leaves Paramount, and they're expected to announce very soon.


“While Universal values the close partnership we have shared with Toshiba, it is time to turn our focus to releasing new and catalog titles on Blu-ray,” said Craig Kornblau, president of Universal Studios Home Entertainment.

Kornblau continues:

“The path for widespread adoption of the next-generation platform has finally become clear,” Kornblau said. ”Universal will continue its aggressive efforts to broaden awareness for high-def's unparalleled offerings in interactivity and connectivity, at an increasingly affordable price. The emergence of a single, high-definition format is cause for consumers, as well as the entire entertainment industry, to celebrate."

---