Polls tightening?
Polls tightening?
Polls tightening?#1
Posted: 10/21/08 at 4:13pm
I'm confused over the whole "the polls are tightening" talk... keep in mind the poll I mainly follow is the CNN poll... the last few days Obama was ahead by 6, now he's ahead by 9, 51 to 42.
are they really tightening? Where does everyone here go to see polling data?
re: Polls tightening?#2
Posted: 10/21/08 at 4:16pm
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
They list most of the polls.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
for the electoral college and intelligent discussion of polls and what they mean.
polls tightening?#3
Posted: 10/21/08 at 4:20pmthe polls are not tightening, obama has already won. the election is a mere formality. voting isn't necessary since he has already won. stay home, have a party celebrate the new order. hail obama.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
re: Polls tightening?#4
Posted: 10/21/08 at 4:21pmAlso RealClearPolitics lists an average of the polls listed. If you follow that, you'd have seen the race beginning to tighten after the last debate, from an average lead of 8 points down to an average lead of 5 points. But over the past two days, Obama is beginning to pull ahead again, now up an average 7 point lead.
re: Polls tightening?#5
Posted: 10/21/08 at 4:22pmHow many polls would a polster poll if a polster could poll polls?
re: Polls tightening?#6
Posted: 10/21/08 at 4:24pmOnly the ones that agree with PalJoey.
polls tightening?#7
Posted: 10/21/08 at 4:27pmi heard that paljoey likes a tight poll.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
polls tightening?#8
Posted: 10/21/08 at 4:36pmhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fGTUFqPJo4
polls tightening?#9
Posted: 10/21/08 at 4:50pm
You're so UN-gay, Papa. you've got it backwards: Poles are thick--butts are tight.
Cubanpab--Obama himself said that all elections get closer as the date arrives. That's why he doesn't want Democrats to get complacent.
The only appropriate time to celebrate a landslide is the day after Election Day.
EDIT: Oops!
polls tightening?#10
Posted: 10/21/08 at 4:52pm
"Obama himself said that all elections get closer as the sate arrives."
Ok, who ordered the sate?
Joined: 12/31/69
polls tightening?#12
Posted: 10/21/08 at 4:59pmDAMN THAT ELITIST OBAMA! Why'd he have to order the Sate? Eggrolls ain't good enough fer him I guess! ELITIST!
polls tightening?#13
Posted: 10/21/08 at 4:59pmPJ, I think papa meant a tight Polack.
Vita, dulcedo, et spes nostra
Salve, Salve Regina
Ad te clamamus exsules filii Eva
Ad te suspiramus, gementes et flentes
O clemens O pia
polls tightening?#14
Posted: 10/21/08 at 5:04pmStagey--how many times do I have to tell you: Polacks are usually thick--very thick--but rarely tight.
polls tightening?#15
Posted: 10/21/08 at 5:12pmThe best site for analyzing polling data is www.fivethirtyeight.com. They weigh the various polls by the pollsters' previous performance, and they look at each day's polling data. They do predict that most elections get closer as election day approaches.
polls tightening?#16
Posted: 10/21/08 at 5:13pmWell, according to the kids at Scholastic and Nickolodeon- Obama wins the polls! By a landslide at Scholastic and 51 - 49 at Nick.
polls tightening?#17
Posted: 10/21/08 at 5:17pmWell, Obama won at both the high school and junior high in my town, both by overwhelming majorities. So, McCain should just give up.
polls tightening?#18
Posted: 10/21/08 at 7:27pm
The link below goes to www.fivethirtyeight.com's analysis of today's polls.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1021.html
polls tightening?#19
Posted: 10/22/08 at 2:55pm
Be afraid. And take no cheer. It's either a "landslide"...or it's "neck and neck."
===
Oct 22 01:23 PM US/Eastern
By LIZ SIDOTI
Associated Press Writer
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch
WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.
Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.
The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.
"I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in government than Obama. I don't think Obama has been around long enough," said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.
But Karen Judd, 58, of Middleton, Wis., said, "Obama certainly has sufficient qualifications." She said any positive feelings about McCain evaporated with "the outright lying" in TV ads and his choice of running mate Sarah Palin, who "doesn't have the correct skills."
The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.
Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points.
Polls are snapshots of highly fluid campaigns. In this case, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; that means Obama could be ahead by as many as 8 points or down by as many as 6. There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely voters and the wording of questions.
[MORE AT LINK]
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch
Videos
.jpg?format=auto&width=365)
