Study Shows Prop 8 Results Appear to Have Been Corrupted

[romantico]

Posted: 1/4/10 at 4:38am

The following study of suspect Proposition 8 election results in Los Angeles County, CA, is drawn from data gathered in EDA's Election Verification Exit Poll (EVEP) analysis of the 2008 Presidential election, which reports similarly questionable election results in several states.

Although this exit poll analysis cannot provide conclusive proof of election fraud (because such proof would require access to memory cards and computer code accorded proprietary exemption from public examination) it does provide the strongest indirect proof available that election results have almost certainly been altered by manipulation of the computerized voting systems.

Deviations between exit polls and official results far outside margins of error, cannot be explained away by demographics or polling factors. The facts established in these reports cannot responsibly be dismissed or evaded.

Election Defense Alliance calls on legislators, secretaries of state, attorneys general, the voting public, and especially candidates in upcoming elections, to read these reports and seriously confront their implications.

http://electiondefensealliance.org/CA-Prop-8-Corrupted#ixzz0bclEKJRc

Exhaustive analysis of exit polls conducted in Los Angeles County has led to the inescapable conclusion that the vote count for Proposition 8 (the ban on same-sex marriage) may have been corrupted. The data were drawn from questionnaires filled out by 6326 voters at 10 polling places scattered across Los Angeles County, and were properly adjusted to match the gender, age, race, and party affiliation of the electorate.



For Proposition 4 (which would have required parental notification and a waiting period for minors seeking abortions), the official results differ from the adjusted exit poll data by only 0.64%. But for Proposition 8, the disparity between the official results and the adjusted exit poll data is 5.74%, enough to affect the margin by 11.48%.



Because Los Angeles County comprised 24.23% of the statewide electorate, an error of that magnitude would have affected the statewide margin by 2.78%, accounting for most of the official 4.48% statewide margin of victory.



There were not enough Republican voters to account for the disparity between the exit poll and the official results even if every Republican non-responder voted for Proposition 8. The Edison-Mitofsky exit poll showed a similar disparity statewide, indicating that altered vote counts may not be limited to Los Angeles County.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 1/4/10 at 1:01pm

and surely no one lied on their exit poll rather than admit that they really don't want them damn gays marrying. nope that would be unheard of in the history of human interactions. no, it had to be anti-gay hackers corrupting the results.

gimme a break.

[JerseyGirl2]

Posted: 1/4/10 at 1:09pm

Half the people who voted against marriage equality don't have the balls to admit it in an exit poll. That ain't rocket science.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 1/4/10 at 2:01pm

"some of my best friends are gay, but that doesn't mean they should be allowed to sully the sanctity of marriage. such things are the province of karl rove & co."

the above is a fabricated quote.

[romantico]

Posted: 1/4/10 at 2:56pm

The Diebold corporation runs the voter registration database and all the vote by mail voting in LA.I was reading some of the comments on another blog that posted this story and found this interesting.This study shows it's not at ALL clear that 8 really passed in LA County although it was a small percentage of precincts that were studied, the results from those precincts are all on target for prop 4 (indicating excellent polling methodology) and way off, all in the same direction for prop 8. If it was manipulated in those precincts, the rest of the county and perhaps the state is suspect.

What stands out most to me in the report is something that's always bothered me greatly since the election: the discrepancy between the Yes/No votes for Props 4 and 8. It's quite a stretch to accept that so many (presumably "values voters") would vote against parental notification yet vote for banning marriage equality. Anti-choicers & anti-gays are practically interchangeable (and extremely predictable).

Also well worth the reads

http://www.velvetrevolution.us/electionstrikeforce/2008/11/exit_poll_showed_californias_p.html

http://www.velvetrevolution.us/electionstrikeforce/2008/12/attorney_in_ohio_election_frau.html

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/12/14/164051/25/182/673074

Updated On: 1/4/10 at 02:56 PM

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 1/4/10 at 3:10pm

diebold? again? seriously?

rom, there are plenty of pro-choice people who don't think gays ought to be marrying who would never admit it. it's like the kind of hidden racism i was counting on to beat obama in '08. it didn't materialize for me then because the electorate was even more sick of the gop than they were scared of the brown guy. but face it, trying to make a case for fraud on exit polls on a polarizing issue - especially when there is no way of verifying who the people polled actually were or what they really voted - is an uphill climb at the very least.

show me some evidence that the software was compromised. get a pol to demand an investigation. but this seems to me like tilting at windmills.

[madbrian]

Posted: 1/4/10 at 3:21pm

At the risk of agreeing with Papa, exit polls are notoriously bad and unreliable. I read www.fivethirtyeight.com rather regularly, and they're constanting evaluating polls and election results. I don't remember them calling the integrity of the prop 8 vote into question.