The Coming Republican Election Debacle

[PalJoey]

Posted: 9/4/06 at 8:07am

There hasn't been this kind of election since 1994.

Headline in the Washington Post:

More GOP Districts Counted as Vulnerable

Headline in the NYT:

Rove’s Word Is No Longer G.O.P. Gospel

Another headline in the NYT:

G.O.P. Seen to Be in Peril of Losing House

Reuters article:

Democrats on a roll in battle for U.S. Congress

Snippets:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats enter the fall campaign with a clear edge in the high-stakes fight for control of the U.S. Congress, riding a wave of momentum that has them positioned to retake the U.S. House of Representatives and make significant gains in the Senate.

"I don't think the question any longer is can Democrats win control of Congress, it's can Republicans do anything to stop it?" said Amy Walter, House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter. "All the factors and issues are pushing so strongly against Republicans."...

All 435 House seats, 34 of 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships are at stake in November's election, with Democrats needing to pick up 15 House seats and six Senate seats to reclaim majorities.

Strategists in both parties say the glum public mood has created a strong desire for change and given Democrats a big advantage at the traditional opening of the campaign season on Monday's Labor Day holiday.

"It's too late to fix the national mood -- it's not going to be fixed," said Republican pollster Frank Luntz. "The major issues are not playing well for Republicans this year, and Republicans are not playing well with America this year."...

A Democratic majority in even one chamber of Congress would slam the brakes on what is left of Bush's second-term legislative agenda and hasten his descent into lame-duck status in the final two years of his presidency.

It also would give Democrats an opportunity to hold hearings and investigate many of the administration's more controversial foreign, military and energy policy decisions....

But Republican House campaign spokesman Carl Forti shrugged off predictions of a takeover.

"We're nowhere near as bad off as the experts would have you believe," he said, adding Bush's low ratings and public dissatisfaction with the Republican-led Congress would not determine House races.

In the Senate, Democrats are expected to pick up seats. But to win control they will need to bump off at least five Republican incumbents -- difficult but not impossible even under favorable conditions.

In recent polls, Democratic challengers led Republican incumbents Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Conrad Burns in Montana and Mike DeWine in Ohio. Jim Talent in Missouri, Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island and George Allen in Virginia also face re-election struggles.

The open Tennessee seat of retiring Republican Senate Leader Bill Frist is also on the endangered list for Republicans.

Democratic incumbents Maria Cantwell in Washington, Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Bob Menendez in New Jersey face potentially tough races, and Democrats must defend open seats in Minnesota and Maryland.

Many voters do not start paying attention until late in the campaign and many candidates only start spending heavily in September, giving the races plenty of chances to shift before the election.

Unexpected events, like the capture of al Qaeda leader
Osama bin Laden or a major terrorist strike, could quickly shift the political landscape.



Democrats on a roll in battle for U.S. Congress

Updated On: 9/4/06 at 08:07 AM

[PalJoey]

Posted: 9/4/06 at 9:19pm

CNN: Voters are anti-incumbent and angry, new poll finds

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Most Americans are angry about "something" when it comes to how the country is run, and they are more likely than in previous years to vote for a challenger this November, a new poll suggests.

A majority of Americans surveyed -- and a higher percentage than recorded during the same time last year -- said things in the United States are going "badly." Among this year's respondents, 29 percent said "pretty badly" and 25 percent -- up from 15 percent a month ago -- answered "very badly." By comparison, 37 percent described the way things are going as "fairly well," and 9 percent answered "very well."

Of these people, 76 percent said there was "something" to be angry about in the country today. By comparison, 59 percent felt that way when polled in February.

Only 21 percent said they were "generally content" in the latest poll.
CNN: Voters are anti-incumbent and angry, new poll finds

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 9/4/06 at 10:10pm

the bet's still stands, pj. confident enough yet to put up some cash?
the terms as stated

[Calvin]

Posted: 9/4/06 at 10:44pm

Our bet still stands, yes?

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 9/4/06 at 10:44pm

It's already a bet and a wager:

We win, we take Congress and start turning this country around.

You win, you keep Congress and we all go to hell in a **** basket.

Updated On: 9/4/06 at 10:44 PM

[PalJoey]

Posted: 9/4/06 at 11:06pm

Such a clever subject-line change, PapaLovesMambo:

From: The Coming Republican Election Debacle

To: the coming democratic election disappointment

Hahaha, but your cleverness rings hollow.

The only reason the country is turning against the Republican Party is that the idiots you continue to defend have not done one single thing right. They have F*CKed up everything they put their money-grubbing hands on.

The only ones who have benefited from the past 6 years are the oil and drug companies, whose cups runneth over--and the Islamist terrorists, whose coffers and membership lists are higher than ever.

People have said that if the Democrats lose this election, there should no longer be a Democratic Party. Well, I say this:

If the Republicans lose this election, it be because they robbed us blind, disrepected the Constitution, lied to us time after time after time, killed our sons and daughters and treated the military as servants, tortured and spied illegally--and did all that badly.

Your continued support for these craven Republicans would seem like integrity...if the party had one shred of decency left. But it doesn't.

Updated On: 9/4/06 at 11:06 PM

[brdlwyr]

Posted: 9/4/06 at 11:11pm

PJ well said.

This time the bubbly will be ours!

[PalJoey]

Posted: 9/4/06 at 11:12pm

Speaking of the Republican takeover in 1994, this is from that same CNN article:

A majority -- 55 percent -- said they are more likely to back a challenger in races on this year's ballot. Such anti-incumbent sentiment is higher than the 48 percent recorded as "pro-challenger" in a similar survey in 1994, when the GOP took control of both houses of Congress.

[brdlwyr]

Posted: 9/4/06 at 11:19pm

Tammy Duckworth will be one that we toast in November!

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 6:30am

yep, cal, it still stands. nice to see someone has some confidence in their party's chances.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 8:27am

Yes, that is nice, because millions of "security moms" and male voters are abandoning the Republican Party, which has proved through its actions that it has come to stand for nothing more than GREED, CORRUPTION, LIES and BIGOTRY.

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 8:30am

Speaking of voter disenfranchisement, I'm getting screwed over.
I registered well in advance of the cutoff to be legally registered to vote in my neighborhood by the primary here.
And I got my voter information in the mail.
I'm registered in my old neighborhood. From two years ago. What the?
Seriously, it's almost as if they don't WANT you to vote because now I have to plan a way to fly home after work, head to my old neighborhood to vote before I can get back on the subway and go home.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 10:12am

hmmmm, have they started holding elections yet, pj, or are ya just speculating based on media reports? tsk, tsk, you above all should know better than to start gettting excited based on media reports. remember the last time champagne corks got popped, i think it was in may, remember how well that worked out?

[Plum]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 10:49am

Santorum has got to go. That's my main point of concentration- think globally, act locally and all that. :) And I'll say what I've been saying for months- the Dems have a pretty good chance of taking the Senate, and a very small chance of taking the House. The latter is more possible now than it was at the beginning of the year, though.

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 10:51am

Plum, I'm just curious what your reasoning is because it's opposite of what most polling and pundits would have us believe. They seem to lean towards retaking the House but only gaining ground in the Senate.
Why do you think otherwise?

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 10:58am

oh, plumsy, didja see the debate? i mean, yeah, santorum is senator man-on-dog and all, but li'l bobby casey should not be allowed speak in public again until after the election. seriously, put the guy under wraps if ya wanna win. wanna bet his lead is down to 4% on the next poll after that performance?

[PalJoey]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 2:42pm

From today's released Gallup poll:

Pennsylvania

Perhaps the Republican with the toughest challenge is Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who won close elections to the Senate in 1994 and 2000. Santorum is often viewed as being too conservative for a state that leans Democratic; Pennsylvanians have voted for Democratic presidential candidates in each of the last four presidential elections. Santorum is being challenged by Bob Casey Jr., the state treasurer and son of the popular late former governor of Pennsylvania. The USA Today/Gallup poll shows Casey with a sizable advantage over Santorum among likely voters, 56% to 38%. Most other polls in the state this year have shown Casey with the lead, albeit of varying sizes. The USA Today/Gallup numbers are similar to the results of several polls conducted in the spring, and may indicate the momentum is swinging back toward Casey after recent polls suggested that Santorum was cutting into the large lead Casey had enjoyed.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 2:48pm

the poll was conducted between 8/23-27. hence, it doesn't take into account the debate.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 2:51pm

Grasp at some of these, Papa--

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 3:13pm

thanks, but no thanks, i gave up the marching powder years ago.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 5:02pm

It's going to be a GREAT election season.

[Plum]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 6:28pm

It's been a little while since I mentally laid out the Senate contests, bwaysinger, so there's a distinct chance that I'm just being an idiot. And I'm kind of loathe to predict anything when it comes to House races, though I guess now it's close enough to Election Day that I should start.

papalovesmambo, there's nothing Santorum does better than shoot himself in the foot. That book? The appearance on The Daily Show? Living in Virginia? And because it's worth repeating- that book? I couldn't catch the debate, but Santorum has, in his general wankiness, laid out the groundwork for his own demise. And the closer he sticks to the President, the longer he insists there are WMD in Iraq, the worse he makes things for himself.

[PalJoey]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 8:32pm

Plum--even conservative experts are predicting the dismembering of the Republican stranglehold on the House. This is from conservative Insight Magazine:

===

www.insightmag.com - Sept. 5-11, 2006, Posted On: 9/5/2006

GOP secretly channeled millions to Lieberman

The White House funneled millions of dollars through major Republican Party contributors to Sen. Joseph Lieberman’s primary campaign in a failed effort to ensure the support of the former Democrat for the Bush administration.

A senior GOP source said the money was part of Deputy White House Chief of Staff Karl Rove's strategy to maintain a Republican majority in the Senate in November. The source said Mr. Rove, together with Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman, directed leading pro-Bush contributors to donate millions of dollars to Mr. Lieberman's campaign for re-election in Connecticut in an attempt that he would be a "Republican-leaning" senator.

"Joe [Lieberman] took the money but said he would not play ball," the source said. "That doesn't mean that this was a wasted investment."

Mr. Rove has been responsible for the White House’s effort to ensure a GOP majority in Congress for the last two years of Bush's presidency. Internal party polls show the GOP could lose between 30 and 40 seats in the House as well as its majority in the Senate. A Democratic majority in the Senate would require the GOP to lose at least six seats.

The source said that under Mr. Rove's direction, the GOP has abandoned its Senate candidate in Connecticut, Alan Schlesinger, who has dropped to about five percent in the polls. Mr. Schlesinger has failed to win the support of any national Republican and has virtually no contact with the White House.

In contrast, Mr. Lieberman, who has called for the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, was deemed a major component of the GOP strategy in November. Mr. Lieberman is expected to win the general election after losing the Democratic primary to anti-war challenger Ned Lamont. However, the race with Mr. Lamont has been tightening considerably.

"The more he [Lieberman] spits, the more that he [Bush] kisses," Mr. Schlesinger said. "I don't understand that. I guess a kiss is not just a kiss."

In July, the Republican National Committee provided the Republican Party in Connecticut with $120,900, the eighth largest contribution that month. The RNC has raised $70 million, with a special fund designated to help keep its congressional majority.

"I'm staying out of Connecticut because, you know, that's what the party suggested, the Republican Party of Connecticut," President Bush said on Aug. 21. "And, plus, there's a better place to spend our money, time and resources."

Mr. Lieberman has raised most of his money from outside Connecticut. The veteran senator has turned his re-election campaign into a test of patriotism and support for the U.S. military presence in Iraq.

The source said that under Mr. Rove's plan, Mr. Lieberman would vote with the GOP on national security issues and help provide the party with a 50-50 split on major legislation. The deciding vote would then be cast by Vice President Dick Cheney.
GOP secretly channeled millions to Lieberman

[PalJoey]

Posted: 9/5/06 at 10:43pm

And even Bush insiders are SH*Tting in their pants.

===

New York Daily News

W's guys divided on race for House

'We'll lose,' some fear

By THOMAS M. DeFRANK
DAILY NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF

WASHINGTON - President Bush and the Republicans expect a stinging defeat in November, but they're betting the terror card saves them from an electoral debacle.

"The security issue trumps everything," a senior Bush official said last week. "That's why even though they're really mad at us, in the end they're going to give us another two years."

Nevertheless, many other senior Bush loyalists privately believe anti-Iraq and anti-Bush sentiment will cost the Republicans the House nine weeks from today, a doomsday scenario that would cripple Bush for his final two years in office.

"We'll lose the House," one of the party's most prominent officials flatly predicted, "and the President will be dead in the water for two years."

Even a perennially optimistic senior Bush strategist conceded, "I'm pretty worried about it. The House is not looking good."

The Democrats need a net gain of six seats in the Senate or 15 in the House to gain control of one chamber. Barring a huge national wave of Bush-backlash, the GOP is widely expected to lose seats but hang on to its slim majority in the Senate.

The House - which was thought to be impregnable until Iraq, immigration and Hurricane Katrina sent Bush's approval ratings into a tailspin - is "very much in play and very much in flux," according to a White House number-cruncher.

"This cake is baked," predicted Charlie Cook, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter. "You just don't have a wave of this magnitude and not see 15 seats turn over."

The best-case scenario offered by several White House and Republican Party optimists projects losing three Senate seats and eight to 10 House races. That would diminish Bush's legislative clout, but keep the GOP in control.

If the election were held today, a top analyst closely allied with the White House said, the Republicans would lose at least 20 seats, more than enough to make Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California speaker of the House and Harlem's Charles Rangel chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, which controls billions in government spending. A key Bush official called those prospects "suicidal for the country" - a theme Republicans will trumpet throughout the campaign.

Bush's handlers acknowledge he's an unpopular President whose leadership credentials have been shattered in the last year, even though his poll approval ratings have ticked back into the low 40s from their lows in the 30s.

Americans have "decided the personal characteristics that kept him afloat for a long time aren't that appealing anymore," an influential Bushie told the Daily News. "They also think Iraq is a failure."

But Bush political guru Karl Rove believes a massive GOP counteroffensive begun last week reemphasizing the ongoing terror threat and linking the war in Iraq to keeping America safe will carry the day.

Bush planners also believe Republicans have a superior "ground game" that will prove more effective in identifying and turning out their vote than the Democrats.

"We enjoy a severalfold strategic advantage on the ground," said a confident top Bush strategist. "A well-executed mediocre plan will beat a poorly executed brilliant plan every day."

Originally published on September 5, 2006
W's guys divided on race for House