The Debates: Somebody's Wrong

[artscallion]

Posted: 9/23/08 at 8:36am

Here's an interesting analysis of the change in the topic order of the upcoming presidential debates.

"When push comes to shove, the equilibrium of this campaign favors Barack Obama by a couple of points. McCain's goal is to knock the campaign off equilibrium for just long enough that one of these periods coincides with November 4. It would be easier for him to do that if the foreign policy debate, in which Obama is more likely to stumble, were held last. Conversely, a bad performance on Friday would leave Obama with two debates and 40 days to recover, and a media that will probably be happy to help him along. So, I'm giving Steve Schmidt an error on this one. Somewhat true to form, it's a decision focused on winning McCain the battle rather than the war."
FULL STORY HERE

[madbrian]

Posted: 9/23/08 at 8:43am

I'm glad someone else appreciates fivethirtyeight.com. I can't pretend to understand the subtleties of their forecasting, but their insight is always enlightening. They're travelling around the battleground states checking out the ground games for both campaigns, and in virtually every instance, Obama's is much bigger and much better organized.

With respect to this debate, this may be the only moment in the entire campaign where expectations for Obama are lower than for McCain.

[Unknown User]

Posted: 9/23/08 at 10:27am

Who thinks McCain is an expert on the economy? Even he admits he has no idea what he's doing.