I agree there's always a bias.
It also seems that in many years there has been a critical darling that isn't a box office smash (or sometimes is barely seen outside of Hollywood) up against a box office giant that got fairly good or even mixed reviews from critics. It's happened a lot, actually. I'm not sure why. And the end results vary.
Forrest Gump vs. Pulp Fiction
Titanic vs. L.A. Confidential
E.T. vs. Gandhi
Star Wars vs. Annie Hall
Either way, people complain. They say the movie only won because the critics adored it, or it won because it was a box office smash.
That's the nature of the game, I guess. It's a fact that a movie wins an award, but it's only a collective opinion that it was the "best."
I think this year will split. Bigelow will get the director's award, but Avatar will take Best Picture. I think Bigelow is a shoe-in either way. But Best Pic could go to either Avatar or The Hurt Locker.
I do think there are others who are seeing Hurt Locker now (late in the game), and they're feeling the way you do. It was built up too much for them by overzealous, self-important critics, and it's causing an adverse reaction with people, some of them Academy voters. I think those voters will choose Avatar, in that case.
Avatar has two big handicaps (and being a huge hit film with mixed reviews isn't one of them): 1) it's a fantasy, and only one other fantasy has ever won Best Picture -- Lord of the Rings. 2) It's Sci-Fi ... and no Science Fiction movie has ever won Best Picture. I still think it could break that trend this year. And I'm one of those people who thought it was just "okay." Beautiful visually, but otherwise just big and dumb. A cliche plot and dialogue. Cardboard characters taken from any number of previous movies. And a paint-by-numbers, lackluster ending.
Just like The Greatest Show on Earth, Around the World in Eighty Days, The Great Ziegfeld, Wings, and Cavalcade.
All of them won Best Picture.
"Jaws is the Citizen Kane of movies."
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