#1
Posted: 11/3/04 at 11:00am
well, it's the morning after (surprisingly no hangover, thanks) and ohio notwithstanding i think we can take a look at what last night tells us and see where some of it comes out.
with roughly 10% of 2004 voters in the 18-24 age group, this turned out to be almost a carbon copy of 2000's numbers. the youth vote upon which so many were depending turned out to be the same mirage that it does every time one side or the other depends on it. mikey, yer gonna need to do better than underwear next time to get those slackers to the polls.
as far as exit polls go, they prove once again that if you over sample any group (in this case it was women, minorites and urban voters), you get skewed numbers. how hard are the vns folks laughing today?
the popular vote. hunh. while gw's the first president since his daddy to manage a true simple majority (over 50%), it's offset by the fact that the challenger still pulled 48, hence the country is pretty clearly split. the 3.5 million vote victory bush pulled here (i know there's still provisional ballots, absentees, etc. to be counted) will stand up and basically is those 4 million evangelicals that sat home in 2000, just like it was predicted all along.
the gop didn't put a filibuster-proof majority in the senate so there's no way bush is gonna ram through any complete idealogues onto the supreme court. so take a breath, folks.
one seat pickup in the house doesn't do much for the gop.
governorships are a wash.
so now's the part where i reach across the aisle.
take heart in the fact that bush's last comment on civil unions might be what he actually believes and not just last minute pandering. with a senate and house still so divided there'll be no marriage amendment. this was not any gop miracle like 2002, and it's basically their last chance to pass some major bills improving the quality of life for most americans before the mid-terms of 2006 otherwise it will take a miracle for a sitting president (assuming things pan out in ohio) to improve or even hold on to both a house and senate majority. i think the economy will rebound once it's determined that there is a winner. uncertainty wreaks havoc on the markets (am i right on this boobs or am i talking out my a**?) and that plays with jobs and everything else.
i truly believe that bush ran to the right because he knew that he had to in order get re-elected (or elected as jrb would point out) and that he felt that the country truly would not be safe in uncertain times with kerry as cinc. does that excuse his more grotesque panders? nope, but it does give me hope that with no elections left to win and no need to pander that he will emerge as the uniter that he promised to be in 2000 reaching across the aisle to embrace democrats and strive for true bi-partisanship. whether the members of congress will be able to manage that is another story. i do hope that the politics of hatred and division that have rend this country apart can slowly begin to heal.
i must admit that i am sorry to see that barack obama did not manage to secure 90% of the vote in illinois.
with roughly 10% of 2004 voters in the 18-24 age group, this turned out to be almost a carbon copy of 2000's numbers. the youth vote upon which so many were depending turned out to be the same mirage that it does every time one side or the other depends on it. mikey, yer gonna need to do better than underwear next time to get those slackers to the polls.
as far as exit polls go, they prove once again that if you over sample any group (in this case it was women, minorites and urban voters), you get skewed numbers. how hard are the vns folks laughing today?
the popular vote. hunh. while gw's the first president since his daddy to manage a true simple majority (over 50%), it's offset by the fact that the challenger still pulled 48, hence the country is pretty clearly split. the 3.5 million vote victory bush pulled here (i know there's still provisional ballots, absentees, etc. to be counted) will stand up and basically is those 4 million evangelicals that sat home in 2000, just like it was predicted all along.
the gop didn't put a filibuster-proof majority in the senate so there's no way bush is gonna ram through any complete idealogues onto the supreme court. so take a breath, folks.
one seat pickup in the house doesn't do much for the gop.
governorships are a wash.
so now's the part where i reach across the aisle.
take heart in the fact that bush's last comment on civil unions might be what he actually believes and not just last minute pandering. with a senate and house still so divided there'll be no marriage amendment. this was not any gop miracle like 2002, and it's basically their last chance to pass some major bills improving the quality of life for most americans before the mid-terms of 2006 otherwise it will take a miracle for a sitting president (assuming things pan out in ohio) to improve or even hold on to both a house and senate majority. i think the economy will rebound once it's determined that there is a winner. uncertainty wreaks havoc on the markets (am i right on this boobs or am i talking out my a**?) and that plays with jobs and everything else.
i truly believe that bush ran to the right because he knew that he had to in order get re-elected (or elected as jrb would point out) and that he felt that the country truly would not be safe in uncertain times with kerry as cinc. does that excuse his more grotesque panders? nope, but it does give me hope that with no elections left to win and no need to pander that he will emerge as the uniter that he promised to be in 2000 reaching across the aisle to embrace democrats and strive for true bi-partisanship. whether the members of congress will be able to manage that is another story. i do hope that the politics of hatred and division that have rend this country apart can slowly begin to heal.
i must admit that i am sorry to see that barack obama did not manage to secure 90% of the vote in illinois.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
