I've heard so many good things about Laura Michelle Kelly's performance, I would not be surprised to see her win. Granted, Friedman is very talented, but she has about 4 or more Oliviers on the mantle already.
I didn't see Woman in White, but I did see Mary Poppins. Poppins is sure to win best show, but their leading lady isn't so splendid that she's a sure thing. I think Friedman will win.