2007 Leading Actress in a Musical Tony Nominee Contenders- Page 8

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 7:03pm

I think munky wants you to go away. But I'm not certain.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 7:08pm

You are correct, my friend.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 7:23pm

[bwayondabrain]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 7:27pm

i wouldnt say "go away" but simply just not make snarky or annoying (at least to some people) comments in response to other posters- when people have made "rude" comments to what ive said, i just back down, and dont make a scene about it...much easier that way
anyhow...so its already been decided Ashley Brown wont get a Tony... whats next? :)

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 7:28pm

Jerby's such a smart boy.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 7:31pm

No.

He's such a smart man.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 7:32pm

Grrrrrr both of yas!

[OtherDaryl]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 8:26pm

Fantine is a hard call - very dependent upon the personality in the role. Patti LuPone won the London award (whichever one it was at that time - Evening Standard?) as Best Actress for Fantine, but it was also in combination with her role in The Cradle Will Rock. Fantine was cut out of the Tony nominations in the original Broadway production all together - Ruffelle and Kuhn were nominated, Randy Graff was not.

As to the size of those roles - remember Forbidden Broadway, now - I sing one song and then I die?

Unless D'Amboise hits the cover of Newsweek, it's unlikely she'll be contending for Best Actress regardless of the work.

This one, based on every criticism I saw from Encores is Chenowith's to lose, but then so it was with Wicked before it came in.

And Mary Poppins - unless she's Julie Andrews, I doubt it . . . can anybody say, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang?

Ebersole is a hard call, too - she's already won Best Actress on the strength of her peformance in what was always considered a Featured Role. And by the time next Spring comes around, Grey Gardens is not going to be a new performance to anyone. New beats old nearly every time - If LuPone had opened Sweeney in April things might have turned out very differently this year.

MacDonald in 110 in the Shade - lovely character, incredible actress, less than perfect construction of the show. She could break through to the Julie Harris level with this. Did anyone really think Donna Murphy would win for The King and I?

Updated On: 9/16/06 at 08:26 PM

[FoscasBohemianDream]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 8:49pm

Well, Randy Graff's reviews in the original Broadway cast of Les Miserables were far from stellar and it is clear from the cast recording that there is a reason why she didn't get nominated. However, Fantine is not a leading role and if Daphne Rubin-Vegas gets a nomination this year it will be in the featured actress category.
And actually, once Julie Andrews rejected her nomination in 1996 it was more than obvious that Donna Murphy would win for her flawless portrayal of Anna Loewens.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 8:53pm

Oh Fosca, I don't agree with that. Everybody thought Andrews was still going to win even after she turned down the nomination, with most disenters thinking RENT would be more of a sweep leading Rubin Vega to a win. Murphy was a surprise win.

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 9:03pm

No one thought Andrews was going to win after the scene she pulled. It was disingenous, as her husband was the producer as well as the director. She needed the publicity of turning down the nomination for "noble" reasons to make up for the loss of revenue (which would affect her personally) that would come from the lack of awards.

It was all about money, and since the voters are producers and presenters, it was obvious to them.

[FoscasBohemianDream]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 9:24pm

I agree that people thought that if there was a Rent sweep, Rubin-Vega would win, but I always thought (I was 16 at the time so it might've been a misconception given I was so awestruck by Murphy's performance) that after Andrews quit her nomination, Donna Murphy was the front-runner.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 10:12pm

Ebersole is a hard call, too - she's already won Best Actress on the strength of her peformance in what was always considered a Featured Role..

ALWAYS considered a Featured Role? Where does the ALWAYS come from? It's a new show. Second, did you see GREY GARDENS? Ebersole is the Leading Actress in both Act I and Act II. She is the STAR of GREY GARDENS. This is far from a Featured Role.

Updated On: 9/16/06 at 10:12 PM

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 10:15pm

Honey. 42nd Street.

42nd Street.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 9/16/06 at 10:17pm

Oops.

*runs and hides in the corner*

(Sorry OtherDaryl.)

Updated On: 9/16/06 at 10:17 PM

[mjf56]

Posted: 9/17/06 at 1:25am

There will be no competition for the 2007 Tony Award for Best Actress in a Musical. Christine Ebersole has it locked up before the show even opens. Her performance in GREY GARDENS is as legendary as Donna Murphy's in PASSION or Patti LuPone's in EVITA. All other actresses this year will be runners up.

[RentBoy86]

Posted: 9/17/06 at 2:12am

He says "honey" too.

[AberJ01]

Posted: 9/17/06 at 2:45am

Alright Wanna Be A Foster... let's debate, shall we... usually I pass on this, but I'm laughing so much I want to debate. Keep in mind my posts have never been to tear apart your opinion, and the fact that you've tore apart mine is pretty immature. Seriously, who really lit a fire under you? Time to blow it out.

You obviously didn't read the whole point to my post. No matter how many times you wanna swear up and down that someone is going to WIN this Tony next year, it's WAY too early to say that someone is for sure going to win the award. Call me wrong all you want, but it's just too early to say someone will for sure WIN.

Now, you want to debate math, I don't care what percentage of the women we haven't seen yet. So I said 95% and it's closer to 50%, WHO CARES? That would mean still that HALF of the ladies eligible to be nominated HAVE NOT been seen yet. Apparently you are ready to say that you've seen HALF of the ladies that COULD be nominated, and yet you're ready to say someone will WIN the category no matter what, based on seeing HALF of the performances? That's idiotic. That'd literally be like seeing two out of the five films nominated for an Oscar for Best Picture and saying that you already know who will win the Oscar because you've seen TWO out of the FIVE nominations, and one of them was great. SERIOUSLY COME BACK TO REALITY. Of course there is nothing wrong with debating who we think will be nominated next year, but it's just plain stupid to say that any of us know who WILL WIN the Tony. It's stupid, but hey you want to go placing bets on who you think it's going to win it, go right ahead.

Like I said though in my post, none of us know what is going to happen. ANYTHING could happen. Who's to say that ANYONE in the running for this season's Tony's coming up won't gain alot more steam than Ebersole, and overtake her. Think of it this way, Ebersole this PAST year won every award she could for Grey Gardens. She won the Drama Desk's Best Actress Award, the Outer Critics Award for Best Actress, and the Drama League's Distinguished Performance Award. Let's face it, if she had been eligible for Tony, she would have won it this year. Now, let's fast forward to early next year. Let's say ANYONE, AND I MEAN ANYONE, takes the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Awards for Best Actress, in turn, THEY would be the favorite going into the Tony Awards. Ebersole won't be eligible for those awards obivously, so she CAN'T win them, yet we all think that no matter what her performance will stand the test of time, and no matter who wins what awards before the Tony's that Ebersole is just going to blow everyone out of the water, WRONG. The awards leading up to the Tony's will be a bigger factor than people are saying they will, AND since Ebersole IS NOT eligible for any of them, it will be a disadvantage for her, whether you want to believe it or not.

Now some people on here think I've been showing all this favoritism towards Block. Honestly, she probably is my favorite out of the eligible, but who's to say that Ashley Brown doesn't blow the critics away as Mary Poppins? Again we HAVE NOT seen her yet, who knows. The point is, it could be ANYONE. I used Block as the example, and apparently that was wrong. I should have said ANYONE can do it. No one has seen HALF the ladies eligible yet, and the critics in turn haven't written about them yet. Who's to say that the critics won't review ANY of the ladies we haven't seen yet and praise them as "the performance of a lifetime!". It's quite possible, and quite possible that ANY of them could be leaps and bounds better than Ebersole's performance. WE DON'T KNOW. People in here are SO eager to say that no matter what comes along that no one will be able to beat Ebersole, no matter what happens. That's so stupid, and just way to early, and that was the point I was trying to make. Have fun debating who will be nominated, but as I said no one is a lock to win, NO ONE. Nominations could come out next year and Ebersole isn't even nominated. It IS a possiblity, people are snubbed all the time. Then what would everyone in here have to say? Seriously. Would she be such a lock then??

[AberJ01]

Posted: 9/17/06 at 3:00am

Jrb_actor- You can read my response to Wanna Be a Foster and take what you'd like out of it. People will probably find my response quite rude, but my opinion wasn't wrong, it just didn't match with her, so she felt the need to point out every place where she thought I was wrong.

Like I said to her, my motivation is not that I feel that Block should win because she's my favorite, and in turn she'll overtake Ebersole. Seriously, that's just stupid. People, especially on this website, have chosen this state of mind that no matter what happens Ebersole will win. In your post you say that the odds are that no one will be able to get the type of buzz or reviews that is needed to overtake Ebersole. How do you know that before the roles have been seen? Can we honestly say that NONE of performance coming up are going to be equal to or better than Ebersoles BEFORE we've seen them? How?

All I'm saying is that it just doesn't make sense. People are so convinced that this is just the performance of a lifetime, and no matter how good anyone else is they can't beat her. If you or anyone else had seen EVERY lady who is eligible perform the roles, then I could see, but this early, it's stupid. If people want to tell me I'm wrong, fine, but I don't really get how anyone could say the odds are all for Ebersole this early in the game, and anyone else is going to do something amazing to pull out a win. Just too early, in my opinion, but hey, what do I know...

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 9/17/06 at 4:49am

1. Foster is a boy.

2. "Of course there is nothing wrong with debating who we think will be nominated next year, but it's just plain stupid to say that any of us know who WILL WIN the Tony."

How can we say who WILL BE NOMINATED if we haven't seen all the performances yet? Huh? Be consistent in your argument.

3. Avenue Q won Best Musical even though it was in the same position Ebersole is in--winning its awards the year before it was eligible for the Tony.

4. I was saying that if Ebersole's reviews are lightyears beyond any actor's in recent years, what are the chances that will happen twice in one year? I NEVER said it wasn't possible. But it is highly unlikely that someone will get the kinds of reviews she got. Thus, utilizing statistics, we feel confident in our wagers at this point in the game...

5. ...People are simply voicing their "bets" knowing full well without your rants that things COULD change.

6. You don't have to see the shows to play the "who will be nominated/win the Tony game". It's the same as being able to win your Oscar pool without ever having seen the films--you follow the buzz. And the buzz RIGHT NOW is that Ebersole will win.

7. She will DEFINITELY be nominated--and if you want to get upset that I said that, then you really do need to take a chill pill.

Updated On: 9/17/06 at 04:49 AM

[AberJ01]

Posted: 9/17/06 at 9:44am

Jrb_actor- Whatever, you are missing the main point. Most who post on this website are SO quick to dismiss ANY opinion that isn't the same as your own. Why? Who cares? My opinion was just that it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict a WINNER this early in the game. I posted my opinion and already had someone there to tell me that my reasoning is way off, and giving me all there reasons why my opinion is wrong. Seriously, it doesn't affect me or you who wins the Tony. If someone wants to come in here and say that Laura Bell Bundy will definitely win for Legally Blonde and no one will be able to beat her, who cares? We don't need to give them a reply in which we give ten reasons why they are wrong. Technically none of us can say that she won't win no matter how much we think we just KNOW she won't, technically none of us can really prove that she won't win. So just see my point. This post was originally created for everyone to post their OPINIONS on who might be nominated for Best Actress. People are going to have all kinds of different opinions, and quite frankly opinions aren't always based on complete fact, not to mention no one knows for a FACT who will be nominated or win. If someone's opinion differs from yours, just let to be. It'd be just like if I was voting for President and I was voting for the Democrat while you were voting for the Republican, so you have to give me 10 reasons why my vote is the wrong thing to do. It's unnesscary. End of story.

[bwayondabrain]

Posted: 9/17/06 at 9:55am

i think we are all putting too much thought into this...

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 9/17/06 at 11:04am

Aber--then why are you working so hard to prove your opinions? You can't have it both ways.

I think you will enjoy this board much more if you insert "in my opinion" before most anything said in nearly any thread. That phrase is often implied and doesn't need to be said as this IS just a message board of opinions.

I GET your main point. I and others are not stupid.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 9/17/06 at 1:18pm

I get your main point too...I just don't think it's much of a point. It's all common sense.

This thread is a little out of control...

[FoscasBohemianDream]

Posted: 9/17/06 at 1:18pm

A prediction is an educated guess about who is going to win. It's a hypothesis. It's not impossible to GUESS who will win because at the end of the day it's just a speculation and I believe we are all aware of that. It's just interesting to gather everyone's predictions, that's one of the ways buzz is created or at least observed.
Ebersole probably has the most predictions, does it mean she is going to win? Hardly. And this is a public board, the point is to have discussions about everyone's opinion, I think as long as we all respect each others' opinions and realize that we might be wrong ourselves it's ok to discuss someone else's argument.