An anonymous Tony Predictons post from Datalounge — Page 2

My predictions (not opinions) of who is least likely to win for Musical Categories
Best Musical: BFO
Best M Revival: Fiddler
Best Actor: Euan Morton
Best Actress: Stephanie D'Abruzzo
F Actor: John Cariani
F Actress: Jennifer Westfeldt
Score: Taboo
Orchestrations: Fiddler
Book: BFO
Choreography: Bombay Dreams

Well, that's a negative way to think of it, broadwaystar. But I'll play the game anyway, just because I disagree with a couple of your choices. I'd say that Beth Fowler, though I love her, has the least chance of winning in her category, and that Hunter Foster is the least likely to win Best Actor.

Those other Award shows don't necessarily influence the Tony award show nor do they actually matter.

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And furthermore, they're told to vote for the show "most likely to tour". That's all the Tony for best musical is about. It's not really about the "best" show, it's about what show is most likely to tour and make buckets of money for a bunch of greedy people. Ave. Q is a far better musical than Wicked but it most likely won't win.

And for those worshipping at the altar of Menzel, she's been around for 8 years, where were all the fans and casting powers and producers, etc... for the past decade? Suddenly, she's brilliant? Seems to me, she's been singing the EXACT same way whether playing Maureen, or Amneris or Elphaba. I didn't hear a word about Menzel (other than that she was the girlfriend of a B-list "movie star"), since Rent. It's a matter of luck and timing, that's all. Same thing with Anika Noni Rose. She's been around forever and probably been just as good in far less popular projects but suddenly people are "discovering" her. It make sme laugh and shrug at the same time.

It's not backlash, it's stupidity and ignorance which was what I was pointing out in my last post, which was answering Sum. After her big star turn in Rent and a Tony nomination, Menzel didn't originate another lead again, for EIGHT years. Also, her only other Broadway stint was as the 4th Amneris. It's the fickleness of the B'way community. And I don't just mean the fans. It's the powers that be, who are hot for someone for a minute and then cool on them until someone else "reminds" them that they "used" to like this person and suddenly they're "back" and suddenly, they're "brilliant". Idina is the same now as she always was. Kristen...well I don't think I've EVER seen her play a differnet character, including things i've seen her workshop. In short, What I'm attempting to express is that I find the sudden hype and worship ridiculous. You either like someone or not. People aren't fashion (something, I should know), you're either a supporter for the length of a career, or you're not. I like Menzel, the same lukewarm way, I liked her then. She's no more brilliant to me now just because she's in a hit show. Now Ave. Q, THAT'S a "discovery". And Pinkins' turn in Caroline is in my opinion, a major revelation and departure from what i'm used to from her. More worthy of the "hype", regardless of your feelings about the show itself.

Updated On: 6/6/04 at 11:45 AM

Don't really understand what you're talking about in terms of Idina only just being "discovered." Many people haven't been following her career, and have only just seen her in WICKED. So obviously, her talent is a new discovery to THEM. And those of us who did see her in RENT, TWP, AIDA, etc...because it has been so long since she has originated a role, there obviously wouldn't be much hype about her during the times when she was not performing in anything. After 8 years it's really no surprise that so many people are just now recognizing her talent and talking about it.

Thank you Master, you "get" it and me. How rare that is in Broadwayworld. I'm still scratching my head over Contact(that entire Tony season, actually) and more recently, Winoker. I fear I might, for some time to come.

Has anyone seen Carly Jibson yet?
I like Marissa, but every one of my friends who has seen Carly says she ten times better and more convincing than Marissa (think Bernadette/Reba in AGYG).

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You're absolutely right Plum. There are countless examples where the actor is blamed for the material or, on the flipside, revered while turning in a "decent" performance in a "hot" show. I truly believe that any combo of "above average" gals in the 2 leading roles of Wicked, would be having the same golden moment right now. And remember I said, "above average", so don't start throwing the same 8 names around for the roles. No where in my "casting mind" do the names Kerry Butler, Alice Ripley, or amy Spanger, come into the picture. So, stop right there.

I kinda hope Taboo wins best score...I think it was the most ambitious of the group and if Boy George wasn't already a celebrity, he would be hailed as the heir apparant to Jonathan Larson. Ah,well...let's hope someone gives him another chance. Second choice would be Caroline...I just don't think the scores for Wicked (which I haven't seen but heard the CS) and Avenue Q (which I saw and loved) are award-worthy.

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Updated On: 6/6/04 at 02:43 PM

ALRIGHT!

This thread has gone on ridiculously for way too long (and it's not even that long, it's just RIDICULOUS).

1) Who the hell cares whether or not Idina Menzel screams on the CD. The nomination and win (should it occur) have nothing to do with a scream on the CD, but with her PERFORMANCE in the SHOW. For those of you who didn't understand before this moment, a PERFORMANCE consists of singing as well as ACTING in the case of musical THEATRE which this IS. THEREFORE the award should go to the best ACTRESS as this is the BEST ACTRESS category.

2) Wicked is a case of specacle gone green which has the ability to drive out the competition with it's flashy ideas and...IMHO...crappy score. At least two of the other shows nominated for best musical are able to move the audience without the distractions that Wicked utilizes. Maybe Wicked will win. But that's because the voters are stunned. They go into the theatre with the intention of looking for a winner and come out dazzled...they don't even know what happened to them. There were bright happy lights and cheery little songs and a cute (well not really) bubbly blonde to make all their problems go away. They forget what they came to the theatre for. The award for Best Musical should go to a show that touches the audience without blindsiding them.

3) I see EXACTLY were Al Dente is coming from. Idina's been around for a while. Agents and Talent resources and directors and the like have been around. They've seen her before. Yet, in the time she's been around (mind you, I DO appreciate her talent, she has a great voice that's gone unrecognized until now) she hasn't changed anything ABOUT her performance. She's still Idina singing the same way she always did. WHY, then, is she picked up now? Because Wicked is a spectacle. It's not, for me, a true example of GOOD musical theatre and YET spectacle pulls through. This is the American Musical Theatre. Unfortunately.

4) There are many fantastic shows out there. I'm not saying that shows which utilize spectacle can't be good. I'm saying it has to be a great show first. THEN use spectacle. I.E. POTO is fantastic...but when you add the pyrotechnics, it's so much cooler. Another I.E. Assassins can be read in many different ways and every person comes out of that show thinking something different. It's moving and honest and THAT makes it a good show. The bright flashy carnival lights make it amusing musical theatre...there's your use of spectacle.

And so ends my rant. Enjoy the Tony's. I'll keep my true opinions about who should win and who probably will win to myself, though I touched on it here.

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