An anonymous Tony Predictons post from Datalounge

[MasterLcZ]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 4:44pm

(I thought this post very thought-provoking and smart, even though many here will violently disagree. )

Best Musical: Should go to Caroline (incredibly well written and deeply moving), or Avenue Q (better music and a better musical with songs reflecting their varying ideas, not to mention incredibly creative). No musical should win Best Musical when the score sucks -- and Wicked's score is horrible (and most critics agree on this point), except for two songs.

Best Actor, Musical: Should go to John Tartaglia of Avenue Q, even though Hugh has been begging for it by hosting the Tonys and showing off horribly (see how I can sing, sing, sing?), not to mention declaring his straightness to underscore his "bravery" at playing gay (unlike Tartaglia, who is openly gay and whose straight puppet is more convincingl than Jackman's "I'm straight" interview performances). Unfortunately Jackman will probably win on name-recognition.

Best Actress, Musical: Pinkins should win. The performance is astounding, especially her final diva number. Idina Menzel screams, she doesn't sing. Donna Murphy may get lost in the fray, especially because she was fabulous in a flat show. Stephanie D'Abruzzo from Avenue Q is charming and subtle, and movingly works her songs for two characters (especially on "There's a Fine Fine Line Between a Lover and a Friend"), and she deserves to pull ahead of Kristin Chenowith who is basically herself but the main reason Wicked is enjoyable -- in fact Kristin makes everyone of the jokes soar, and her song "Popular" (?) almost singly redeems the show, so she has a better shot than D'Abruzzo, another "lucky to be nominated" performer.

Best Featured Actor, Musical: Michael Cerveris from Assassins will win. He's the only performer for the show with a chance at an acting win, excluding O'Hare who won last year for Take Me Out. Plus his reviews blow Esparza's out of the water. Esparza -- like Taboo -- is lucky to have the nomination.

Best Featured Actress, Musical. Anike Noni Rose deserves to win for the performance, not a Caroline consolation prize. She almost steals the show from Pinkins, and her performance is a knockout. She remarkably closes BOTH Act I and Act II, the first with a rousing number with the other kids, the second as a young woman who represents the hope of the civil rights era, making the subtle point of the whole show (why the movement was generational and turned on children, especially little girls putting their lives at risk, contrasted with why so many African-American women tragically felt unable to participate in the change).

Best Play: I Am My Own Wife deserves it (as the Pulizter Prize winner) but may get competition from Frozen, which was at first criticized as being uneven but is being lauded as the straight play hope of the season.

Best Actor, Play: I've seen all 5 performances, and all are deserving, though Plummer was overrated, I thought. My guess is it goes to Mays with all 5 splitting the vote somewhat, especially if I Am My Own Wife doesn't get best play. Kevin Kline was fabulous as Falstaff, though, and I wouldn't mind -- or be surprised -- seeing him get it.

Best Actress, Play: Rashad deserves it over Feldshuh's mimicry. Rashad's performances turns on a total transformation, almost shockingly so. It's gritty, deeply moving and effective. Everything it should be.

Best Featured Actor, Play: Bryan O'Byrne from Frozen. Chilling, which is what the play requires by its title, and it's the best reviewed performance by a featured actor of the year. Period.

Best Featured Actrss, Play: Audra was amazing. I wept. But she has THREE. They've given Harvey four, and love Audra more, so maybe she'll get number four. But Essie Davis is getting great reviews as well, Sanaa Lathan somewhat less so. This is the hardest one to call for me because Audra already has so many. I'd give it to Sanaa if I felt guilty about giving it to Audra -- and they may split the vote anyway.

Updated On: 6/5/04 at 04:44 PM

[MusicPos2]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 5:43pm

OMG, I am so sick of people saying that Kristin Chenoweth is playing herself! She really isn't! She just does it that well. Idina doesn't scream, the CD has a slight scream in it, but if she did, she'd never hit the note. On the CD she's ok, but on stage, it doesn't even come close to a scream. And AVENUE Q's score is great for the show, but not even close to the best original score. The songs are too simple. They work amazingly for what they are written for, but that's why it's up for Best Book for a musical. WICKED's score can also stand on its own. That's pretty amazing. Updated On: 6/5/04 at 05:43 PM

[TheQuibbler]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 6:08pm

Right on, MusicPos2!

[WhatDoINeedWithLove?]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 6:10pm

its obvious that the writer just HATES wicked so automatically dumps on it winning anything...i hate when people do that...and TWO good songs? Yep, No One Mourns the Wicked, The Wizard and I, What is this Feeling, Popular, Im not that Girl, Defying Gravity, As Long as youre mine, No Good Deed, and For Good.....maybe i just cant add but that looks like 9 AMAZING songs

[kitkatgirl54]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 6:13pm

If the night actually went that way, I would be thrilled and shocked. (caroline, tartaglia, pinkins, cerveris, etc.)

[Al Dente]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 6:16pm

The fact that all that most of you came away with after reading Masters' post is some ridiculous rantings, yet again, about Kristen and Wicked, makes me laugh. Grow up children, or wait until you can actually comprehend what you read before "sounding off".

[testing123]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 6:21pm

Probably not as sick as I am of the "Wicked" backlash !!! How many times are we going to hear that the score sucks !!?? I totally disagree !! Idina screams, she doesnt sing??? Which song is that?!!!! I am not a theater critic... never wanted to be..BUT, I will tell you one thing.. Say what you want about "Wicked", but a vast majority of the people that see the show walk out of the theater with huge smiles on their faces. All I hear at work, on the trains, in restaurants, medical offices, and on the streets are people saying that someone that they now saw the show and that they HAVE to see it. Does this mean that its hands-on the best musical out there? Not at all. But maybe that backlash comes from the fact that overall, its a crowd favorite? Cant say the same for "Caroline". Looking around the audience when I saw it, you could see a lot of people looking at their watches.

I liked it, and I think Tonya Pinkins was excellent, BUT, I dont think she gave the best performance in the show. I think Anika Noni Rose did. As a matter of fact, I found myself getting bored at times when Anika was not in the scene. So with that being said, I cant give Best Actress to Ms. Pinkins. Just my .02

[testing123]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 6:23pm

<< in fact Kristin makes everyone of the jokes soar, and her song "Popular" (?) almost singly redeems the show, so she has a better shot than D'Abruzzo, another "lucky to be nominated" performer.

>>

Redeems the show??? I love that. There is this little number called "Defying Gravity" in "Wicked" that is pretty darn good.

[kitkatgirl54]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 6:25pm

"All I hear at work, on the trains, in restaurants, medical offices, and on the streets are people saying that someone that they now saw the show and that they HAVE to see it."

Wow, sounds like some "backlash!" Just because a few jaded theatergoers have seen better (myself included) or think something else may win (... although i think that's unlikely. it probably will win) doesn't mean Wicked is being threatened. Calm down.

[testing123]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 6:35pm

<< Wow, sounds like some "backlash!" Just because a few jaded theatergoers have seen better (myself included) or think something else may win (... although i think that's unlikely. it probably will win) doesn't mean Wicked is being threatened. Calm down. >>

I was basically referring to the theater critics and people that have seen the show and do not stop with the constant "the score sucks", and the "KC is so over-the-top" comments. To hear people walking out of the theater, or during intermission, saying that every line KC says is "for a laugh" is kind of funny. And I am very calm :))

Thanks !!!

[MusicPos2]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 6:49pm

What about "For Good"? It's not a power number like the rest, but I think it's the most beautiful number in the production. It makes me cry everytime I listen to it. I was balling both times I saw it on stage. If you want to hear screaming, listen to Eden's version of "Defying Gravity" from Chatterbox. That's screaming. Fortunately, I've heard that's not her typical performance. In fact, I've heard it so many times, that I kind of want to find out for myself. Too bad I don't know what time I'll get there 7/2, or I'd actually find out. I'm seeing it 7/3, I hope Idina is in!

[testing123]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 6:59pm

<< I'm seeing it 7/3, I hope Idina is in! >>

Us too !!!! ... evening show.

[MusicPos2]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 7:05pm

Really? Where are you seeing it? I have two people coming (one that hates NYC) b/c I've talked about the show so much. That's part of why I really want Idina and Kristin.

[skingdom]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 7:49pm

Okay okay okay...I haven't posted for awhile but this is ridiculous.

Idina does not scream....she has incredible power....shes not my favorite, but that comment was stupid. I would like Tonya to win. I think Idina will get it.

Maybe Kristin does play herself and if she does, we still love her no? She still makes the show. She is still fabulous. At least she's convincing, where I think that Idina is not most of the time. So why get all flustered when someone says shes playing herself...shes not, but ts no stretch either.

Wicked, does not deserve best musical. If we are deciding what is the best piece of art or attempt at a complete artistic endeavor then it should go to the unfinished Caroline or Change. Or are the Tony's for the most immediately gratifying show? Becuase in that case Wicked should get it. I had fun at Wicked, laughed my ass off and cried. But as far as it being a great musical...nope. It could never be done by a regional theatre. I do love Wicked, but come on.

And what do you mean by amazing songs? ( I myself struggle with this too.) For good, is not an amazing song. Its touching, but its just a big blob of emotion.

As far as Hugh Jackman showing off, he does and hes good at it. The show sucks. I would give it to Euan Morton ( GASP). When did he say he was straight? Too bad for him if he feels he has to say that, because its too bad so many people care. Maybe he wanted to be flambouyant and Allen was his venue, doesnt mean he's gay. but that is jumping the gun. Its annoying. Oh and I think Raul was great in Taboo, in fact Taboo was better than Boy from Oz, and if people hadn't jumped all over Rosie's ass then maybe it would have been better received. Not that it was great, but if we are going to honor Hugh in mediocrity then why not Raul?

Go Anika Noni Rose... I'm done and done... If Wicked wins best set and best book, and best score...I'll be pissed. Chenoweth makes that boat float...sometimes Idina, and Shelley and her sister...whats her name?...Federer...sometimes Butz.

[BroadwayGirl107]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 8:08pm

When I hear someone say Wicked has two good songs, I assume they are referring to "Popular" and "Defying Gravity," which, honestly confuses me, because I don't find "Popular to be anything special. I think there are a handful of better songs in the show. And although I enjoy the score and I love the show, the score in no way, shape, or form deserves best score. I'm assuming those who believe it should did not see Caroline, or Change....that deserves best score.

As far as Anike Noni Rose, she didn't almost steal the show from Pinkins...she DID steal the show from Pinkins...I completely agree that she should take home Best Featured actress.

[Plum]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 8:14pm

I wouldn't say Chenoweth is playing herself, exactly, but she is playing her usual type of character. She shouldn't be excoriated for that- she does that character really well. Idina Menzel isn't my cup of tea, but I know a lot of people disagree with me there.

I actually agree with most of the things this poster said, except the part about Jackman begging. During the show, at least, that's his character- an incredibly eager-to-please performer. But admittedly, I think that eager-to-please attitude is part of Jackman's personality as well. Anyway, I loved John Tartaglia in Avenue Q, but I'd still give the award to Jackman. He manages to make Peter Allen into a real person despite having almost no writing with which to do so. And he carries his show.

Also, I really have an issue with that whole "constantly declaring his straightness" thing. It's the people interviewing him who push him that way. Witness the idiotic questions Jay Leno asked him in May, and the insistence of one of the hosts of The View on finding out whether he was scarred for life by kissing a man. She must have asked him 5 questions about that before she let up.

It's incredibly sad that Jackman even has to "defend his straightness," or whatever, whether it be from moron talk-show hosts or from someone at Datalounge who fancies him or herself an expert on such things, just because he's playing a gay character well. Funny how his orientation never came up until he started doing BFO, isn't it?

-Plum, mildly annoyed

[Mattio98]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 8:22pm

I don't think that Idina screams but there is something about her voice that bothers me. I don't dislike her but she's also not one of my favorites. Sometimes I think that Idina lacks that clean and, in the words of Seth Rudetsky, pingy sound. She has more of a smokey sound. It didn't bother me much at the show but when I listen to the cd now, it bothers me. Stephanie J. Block, Kate Shindle, Julia Murney, Sutton Foster, Audra McDonald, and Mandy Gonzalez have the kind of clean, powerful belt that I'm referring to. I guess it might work for Idina's character but it's just not my cup of tea. Updated On: 6/5/04 at 08:22 PM

[BroadwayGirl107]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 8:35pm

I think I know what you mean Mattio, she does have a differnt tone.

I think her tone isn't always beautiful, but I think she is better at vocally portraying emotion than almost anyone else I've heard. She can certainly hit the notes. She certainly doesn't scream, but I can understand how she isn't your cup of tea...she has a very sharp sound to her voice. Not pitch-wise, I'm referring to her tone.

I happen to love her singing.

[My Fair Lady]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 10:05pm

The only thing I agree with is about Anika Noni Rose. She really was amazing.
But Idina DOES NOT scream. I didn't hear any screaming. Mattio is right though, she does lack that clean, pure sound. I like Sutton's voice better.
And Wicked has a horrible score? With only 2 good songs? You probably have a hell of a lot of trouble finding two BAD songs.
And the Tony Awards are based on talent, not attitude. And from what I've seen, Hugh Jackman's damn good.
And that's all I have to say.

[Mattio98]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 11:14pm

Wow....I'm soooooooo relieved that I didn't get beaten to death over my Idina comment. I was rather frightened. :)

[FindingNamo]

Posted: 6/5/04 at 11:15pm

I love Idina. I saw Wicked with my friend who has NO investment in posting on message boards and doesn't give a crap about technique or style, he just watches a show and he enjoys it or he doesn't. I liked Defying Gravity a lot and the lights came up and the crowd was going crazy and three emotive Latino queens in our row were standing up and screaming and practically crying and hugging each other and yelling "Brava!" and my friend turned to me, now keep in mind he is the very model of the "average" theater goer you are all talking about, and said, "Well, she sure can SCREAM."

By the way, the score does suck.

At the end of Act Two I turned to my friend and said, "I'm sorry. I'm sorry I convinced you to blow over a hundred dollars plus service charge on this." He said, "That's okay. They can't all be good."

So not EVERY average theater goer is walking out of the theater with these lobotomized grins that are often brought up to explain that Wicked is any good at all.

This same friend went with me to Caroline Or Change that weekend and wasn't sure what he thought by intermission, said he thought it was good (he wasn't raving by any means) after Act Two. But in the coming months he said he's thought about the show a lot, it's really stuck with him and he is SO glad he had the chance to see it in the small Off-Broadway house.

Just another opinion from an average theater goer.

Updated On: 6/5/04 at 11:15 PM

[jo]

Posted: 6/6/04 at 12:54am

The other nominated actors in the group are probably very talented, too. But to say that Hugh Jackman is going to win the TONY simply on name-recognition perhaps smacks of simple and plain jealousy. He is an actor of enormous range and talent - unfortunately, his American movie credits have not come up with the right script yet. But if you have seen his ERSKINEVILLE KINGS Australian movie ( and even his early TV work on CORELLI), then you can appreciate how he can be an actor of great depth. Hopefully, his new movie ( which will start filming after his stint on Broadway), Darren Aronofsky's THE FOUNTAIN will provide him the right vehicle to show his dramatic range - together with co-stars Cate Blanchett and Ellen Burstyn.

He is after all an actor trained in classical and dramatic theatre, who just happened to become a Hollywood star. He is an actor comfortable with Shakespeare and Havel and Rodgers/Hammerstein. If you have seen the INSIDE THE ACTORS STUDIO interview, you can see how the students warmly responded to him because he talked mostly of an actor's discipline and an actor's inspiration. How many can dance well enough to be considered as having enough flair of the likes of Fred Astaire? He is not too bad a singer, either - although Peter Allen's songs were not really all that suitable to his voice ( which sounds better in traditional musicals like OKLAHOMA!).

His problem perhaps is that he is too good-looking and too charming to be considered as a serious stage actor - yes, these can be liabilities, too. But when or if he comes back to Broadway - I hope it will be either in a serious drama or in his favourite Shakespeare.

Let's encourage him to tread the boards again sometime in the future, rather than let him think he is not worthy of what so many legitmate theatre critics have said about him.

[BroadwayGirl107]

Posted: 6/6/04 at 1:01am

Namo, do you really love Idina...or was that sarcastic?

[Sumofallthings]

Posted: 6/6/04 at 1:10am

What do you think?

[BroadwayGirl107]

Posted: 6/6/04 at 1:14am

I think you're not Namo