I have to agree that Borle is going to take this.
Remember, everyone, the Tonys are about business, and LEGALLY BLONDE has touring potential. It needs one or two Tony wins.
Borle is also an incredibly talented actor. He has proven himself. While I liked Gallagher in SPRING AWAKENING, I wasn't as impressed by his performance as I was by Jonathan B Wright's, for example, which says a lot, since Wright's role is smaller. I also tend to think that the solo songs in SPRING AWAKENING, for the most part, are just that, songs. They aren't really musical monologues, and that may cause Tony voters not to vote for him, because it's more of a rock-singer performance, as opposed to an acting performance. Borle's Broadway record is much stronger in this town than Gallagher's as well (in the sense that Borle's previous efforts garnered more critical praise).
It also comes down to who campaigns the most. Being nominated is about campaigning, and so is winning. Often, lesser-known actors will personally invite Tony voters to their shows, to see their performance, in hopes that they will be remembered come nomination time. That certainly carries over to the actual voting for a winner. It's all legal, but it's politics. If an actor up for a featured nom has good council, a good agent, and maybe a good manager (and in some cases a producer that is pulling for them - which is usually only the case with commercial producers, not non-profits, which limit their budgets), he or she may have a better shot at a nomination, and subsequently a victory.
I say Borle. He's great, AND a nice guy (which actually counts in my book