Entertainment Weekly's predictions for the Tony Awards:

[beautywickedlover]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 12:25pm

Best Musical
The Book of Mormon (Melissa, Thom)
Catch Me if You Can
The Scottsboro Boys
Sister Act

The irreverent hit from South Park creators Matt Stone and Trey Parker is a sure thing.

Best Play
Good People (Melissa)
Jerusalem
The Motherf—er With the Hat
War Horse (Thom)

There’s a bit of a horse race in this category, with the equine drama War Horse considered the front-runner for its impressive physical production (if not its rather conventional plotting and dialogue). But some voters seem to be rallying around the smart American scripts of David Lindsay Abaire’s Good People and Stephen Adly Guigis’ The Motherf—er With the Hat. If there’s an upset, look for Good People to win by a nose.

Best Revival of a Musical
Anything Goes (Melissa, Thom)
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

Best Revival of a Play
Arcadia
The Importance of Being Earnest
The Merchant of Venice
The Normal Heart (Melissa, Thom)

Larry Kramer’s AIDS-era drama should dominate, though Earnest could sneak by.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest
Bobby Cannavale, The Motherf—er With the Hat
Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
Al Pacino, The Merchant of Venice
Mark Rylance, Jerusalem (Melissa, Thom)

Mark Rylance, a Tony winner in 2008 for the comedy Boeing-Boeing, also earned raves this season for his role as a foppish idiot in La Bête opposite David Hyde Pierce. He is memorably menacing in the British drama Jerusalem.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Nina Arianda, Born Yesterday (Melissa)
Frances McDormand, Good People (Thom)
Lily Rabe, The Merchant of Venice
Vanessa Redgrave, Driving Miss Daisy
Hannah Yelland, Brief Encounter

Nina Arianda has won raves for her Broadway debut, but Frances McDormand should pick up her first Tony for her moving performance in Good People.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Norbert Leo Butz, Catch Me If You Can (Melissa)
Josh Gad, The Book of Mormon (Thom)
Joshua Henry, The Scottsboro Boys
Andrew Rannells, The Book of Mormon
Tony Sheldon, Priscilla Queen of the Desert

This may be the most competitive race this year. Norbert Leo Butz is beloved, but his role is relatively small for a lead. Joshua Henry delivered the best performance, but his show has closed. Tony Sheldon has won over a lot of critics and Tony voters in recent weeks (though I personally found his turn a bit thin and cloying). And the chief Mormon missionaries may split the vote, though I give Josh Gad the edge since his character is a bit showier.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Sutton Foster, Anything Goes (Melissa, Thom)
Beth Leavel, Baby It’s You!
Patina Miller, Sister Act
Donna Murphy, The People in the Picture

Sutton Foster, a Tony winner for 2002?s Thoroughly Modern Millie, is a safe bet here, though there’s a good deal of esteem for Patina Miller’s turn in the Whoopi Goldberg role in Sister Act.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Mackenzie Crook, Jerusalem
Billy Crudup, Arcadia
John Benjamin Hickey, The Normal Heart (Melissa, Thom)
Arian Moayed, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Yul Vázquez, The Motherf—er With the Hat

Hickey delivers a powerful performance as the AIDS-infected boyfriend of the lead character in The Normal Heart. Potential upset: Yul Vázquez, as the not-completely butch cousin in that comedy with the unprintable title.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Ellen Barkin, The Normal Heart (Melissa)
Edie Falco, The House of Blue Leaves (Thom)
Judith Light, Lombardi
Joanna Lumley, La Bête
Elizabeth Rodriguez, The Motherf—er With the Hat

Ellen Barkin has gotten most of the limelight, but I found her performance a bit too shrill. I’m going with Edie Falco in the role that won Swoozie Kurtz a Tony in 1986.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Colman Domingo, The Scottsboro Boys
Adam Godley, Anything Goes
John Larroquette, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Forrest McClendon, The Scottsboro Boys
Rory O’Malley, The Book of Mormon (Melissa, Thom)

Expect another Mormon triumph here, though John Laroquette has his admirers.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown (Melissa)
Tammy Blanchard, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Victoria Clark, Sister Act
Nikki M. James, The Book of Mormon (Thom)
Patti LuPone, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

Laura Benanti was the best thing about the short-lived Women on the Verge, but I’m looking at a Mormon sweep.

Best Direction of a Play
Marianne Elliott and Tom Morris, War Horse (Melissa, Thom)
Joel Grey & George C. Wolfe, The Normal Heart
Anna D. Shapiro, The Motherf—er With the Hat
Daniel Sullivan, The Merchant of Venice

It may not be the best-written play in the field, but it’s easily the most impressive production.

Best Direction of a Musical
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker, The Book of Mormon (Melissa, Thom)
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys

Not even close.

Best Choreography
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes (Melissa, Thom)
Casey Nicholaw, The Book of Mormon
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys

A competitive race since there was a lot of great dance this year, but the tap-tastic first-act finale of Anything Goes gives Kathleen Marshall the edge.

Best Book of a Musical
Alex Timbers, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone, The Book of Mormon (Melissa, Thom)
David Thompson, The Scottsboro Boys
Cheri Steinkellner, Bill Steinkellner and Douglas Carter Beane, Sister Act

Best Original Score Written for the Theater
Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone, The Book of Mormon (Melissa)
John Kander and Frank Ebb, The Scottsboro Boys (Thom)
Alan Menken (music) and Glenn Slater (lyrics), Sister Act
David Yazbek, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

The Mormon team is likely to win, unless there’s a sentimental vote for the final collaboration of the legendary Kander and Ebb.

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Todd Rosenthal, The Motherf—er With the Hat
Rae Smith, War Horse (Melissa, Thom)
Ultz, Jerusalem
Mark Wendland, The Merchant of Venice

War Horse will win for the life-size horse puppets alone.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Beowulf Boritt, The Scottsboro Boys
Derek McLane, Anything Goes
Scott Pask, The Book of Mormon (Thom)
Donyale Werle, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson (Melissa)

The short-lived Andrew Jackson‘s set was bloody impressive (including a seeming horse carcass hanging over the audience), but I suspect voters will reward the year’s biggest current hit.

Best Costume Design of a Play?
Jess Goldstein, The Merchant of Venice?
Desmond Heeley, The Importance of Being Earnest (Thom)
Mark Thompson, La Bête?
Catherine Zuber, Born Yesterday (Melissa)

Best Costume Design of a Musical?
Tim Chappel and Lizzy Gardiner, Priscilla Queen of the Desert (Melissa, Thom)
Martin Pakledinaz, Anything Goes?
Ann Roth, The Book of Mormon
Catherine Zuber, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

Tim Chappel and Lizzy Gardiner won an Oscar for their work on the film version of Priscilla (where Gardiner memorably wore a dress made of American Express gold cards); expect another trip to the podium for the duo for their witty, eye-catching work.

Best Lighting Design of a Play?
Paule Constable, War Horse (Melissa, Thom)
David Lander, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Kenneth Posner, The Merchant of Venice
Mimi Jordan Sherin, Jerusalem

War Horse should continue its sweep of technical categories.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Ken Billington, The Scottsboro Boys (Melissa)
Howell Binkley, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying?
Peter Kaczorowski, Anything Goes?
Brian MacDevitt, The Book of Mormon (Thom)

Best Sound Design of a Play
Acme Sound Partners & Cricket S. Myers, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Simon Baker, Brief Encounter (Melissa)
Ian Dickinson for Autograph, Jerusalem
Christopher Shutt, War Horse (Thom)

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Peter Hylenski, The Scottsboro Boys (Melissa)
Steve Canyon Kennedy, Catch Me If You Can
Brian Ronan, Anything Goes?
Brian Ronan, The Book of Mormon (Thom)

Best Orchestrations
Doug Besterman, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Larry Hochman, The Scottsboro Boys (Melissa)
Larry Hochman and Stephen Oremus, The Book of Mormon (Thom)
Marc Shaiman & Larry Blank, Catch Me If You Can

Tony Awards 2011: We predict the winners

[pinoyidol2006]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 8:10pm

Frankly I'm surprised Entertainment Weekly still covers Broadway.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 8:11pm

This past year they have dedicated probably 1 out of every 10 issues to Theatre. They covered Books more than Theatre. The only category Theatre beat was Video Games...

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 8:59pm

More people probably read books than go to the theatre.

[#1Elphie]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 11:51pm

Does anyone know how accurate their predictions have been in the past?

[pinoyidol2006]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 11:59pm

By "dedicated", did you mean that a significant portion of the magazine was theater or that in every 1/10 issues, they have an article on theater?

Still, I'm pleasantly surprised that any entertainment magazine would still cover Broadway.