Hmm....well, my success was both (but it was the second day of the show.) We got pics with him before the matinee and I got my playbill signed after the evening show (which was the show we attended) but I can say there was a lot of scary shoving at the evening stage door and the crowds have gotten bigger since then.
So, from my personal experience I'd say you'd have a better chance before the Wednesday matinee. In the evening there will be people who are already standing at the barricades during the show, so unless you're planning on leaving the show early you have less chance of getting closer to the barricades to get pictures.
But even before the Wednesday matinee it wouldn't be a bad idea to get there early, maybe 11:45-12:00 and wait it out for an hour. As I said, he seems to get to the theater around 1-1:15. I'm thinking he tries to come closer to 1PM because he knows people will be waiting outside.
ETA: If you go to Youtube and look up "Nick Jonas Stage Door" there are a few videos people have taken outside the stage door at various times which might give you an idea of the crowds.
Updated On: 3/14/12 at 04:48 PM