I think that with ticket prices what they are now taking your family to see a show is a much more considerable investment than it was in, say, 1981.
As for the shows that you list that opened after that, there is huge name recognition for Lion King and Poppins.
And clearly I wasn't making a hard and fast case for all shows opening in winter tourist season. A case could be made for or against any of them.
But my point was that for a show like LJ that has no jukebox songs or name recognition or star performer, and only a few good notices that came out in mid-December you need
something to draw audiences.
But who knows? It could have opened on October 1st to absolute raves and still tanked. Just suggesting the deck was stacked against them from the outset.
....but the world goes 'round