#1
Posted: 5/11/05 at 2:38pm
this article looked interesting but im not a betting kinda gal, so someone explain to me the math here :)
Article
Article
#2
Posted: 5/11/05 at 2:43pm
FYI, the "Gold Derby" websites are often pretty wrong. Want to know how many critics said Idina was going to win Best Actress last year? That'd be none. That they'd put DRS as the least likely to win Best Musical is preposterous. Neither Piazza and Spelling Bee have a shot.
JOHN LITHGOW
I just realized, your last name is Butz! Both "Norbert" AND "Butz" are in your name! You must have gotten picked on a lot as a child!
#3
Posted: 5/11/05 at 2:46pm
Last season the only one to predict Menzel's victory, in writing, of course, was Mandelbaum (spelling?) from Broadway.com.
#4
Posted: 5/11/05 at 2:47pm
I was just going to post and you beat me to it, Mistress!
Spamalot odds are 1/9. That means they think Spamalot is going to win-- by a lot. "Even Money" odds are 1/1 meaning they think it's very close. A high first number means it's HIGHLY unlikely that it will win.
Best Actor is a close category: Butz is 6/5-- almost even. Curry is 5/2. Lithgow is 3/1. Gary Beach is 35/1. So you could say that it is 35 times more likely that Norbert will win than Gary Beach.
The ratio refers to betting odds-- If you bet a dollar that Gary Beach won and he DID you'd win $35.
Spamalot odds are 1/9. That means they think Spamalot is going to win-- by a lot. "Even Money" odds are 1/1 meaning they think it's very close. A high first number means it's HIGHLY unlikely that it will win.
Best Actor is a close category: Butz is 6/5-- almost even. Curry is 5/2. Lithgow is 3/1. Gary Beach is 35/1. So you could say that it is 35 times more likely that Norbert will win than Gary Beach.
The ratio refers to betting odds-- If you bet a dollar that Gary Beach won and he DID you'd win $35.
#5
Posted: 5/11/05 at 2:49pm
Hmm, looking at them all now, I see many of them differ from the majority of people here on the board. Granted we don't vote, but still.
#6
Posted: 5/11/05 at 2:50pm
100/1 odds on Kudisch?
Yeah..i'll take this reeeealllly seriously.
Yeah..i'll take this reeeealllly seriously.
"Y'all have a GRAND day now"
#7
Posted: 5/11/05 at 2:52pm
Well @ least they picked Norb so they got @ least 1 right LOL!!
#8
Posted: 5/11/05 at 3:01pm
Can someone explain these odds to me?
What's better? 3-5 or 2-3? I don't understand these...
What's better? 3-5 or 2-3? I don't understand these...
I want to write music. I want to sit down right now at my piano and write a song that people will listen to and remember and do the same thing every morning...for the rest of my life. - Jonathan Larson. Tick, Tick...BOOM!
#9
I think its pretty easy to understand when its like 1/# or #/1 but when theyre both over 1, is when its not as easy. for example:
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Victoria Clark, "The Light in the Piazza" - 5/4
Christina Applegate, "Sweet Charity- 3/2
I feel like I should be doing division, but then am I looking an answer closer to 1? 0?
Posted: 5/11/05 at 3:07pm
I think its pretty easy to understand when its like 1/# or #/1 but when theyre both over 1, is when its not as easy. for example:
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Victoria Clark, "The Light in the Piazza" - 5/4
Christina Applegate, "Sweet Charity- 3/2
I feel like I should be doing division, but then am I looking an answer closer to 1? 0?
Updated On: 5/11/05 at 03:07 PM
#10
Posted: 5/11/05 at 3:22pm
I am guessing that whatever is on the top of the list is the most likely - according to the odds - to win. The last ones have been 40-to-1 or 100-to-1.
I want to write music. I want to sit down right now at my piano and write a song that people will listen to and remember and do the same thing every morning...for the rest of my life. - Jonathan Larson. Tick, Tick...BOOM!
#11
Posted: 5/11/05 at 3:42pm
Sorry to threadjack: TGIF you just made my day with your icon. Rauuuullllll....
Much of the this guys predictions, I don't think are gonna happen.
Much of the this guys predictions, I don't think are gonna happen.
#13
Posted: 5/11/05 at 3:48pm
Looks pretty right on to me. Just about all of their favorites match my predictions.
"What a story........ everything but the bloodhounds snappin' at her rear end." -- Birdie
[http://margochanning.broadwayworld.com/]
"The Devil Be Hittin' Me" -- Whitney
#14
Posted: 5/11/05 at 3:54pm
To explain, and be a slight confused further, in terms of best musical since Spamalot is 1/9 and DRS is 20/1, then that means they feel Spamalot is 180 times more likely to win best musical than Scoundrels. I do believe Spamalot is the fav, but those numbers might be a tad extreme.
"If there was a Mount Rushmore for Broadway scores, "West Side Story" would be front and center. It snaps, it crackles it pops! It surges with a roar, its energy and sheer life undiminished by the years" - NYPost reviewer Elisabeth Vincentelli
#15
Posted: 5/11/05 at 4:06pm
Sorry I am at work so I keep getting interrupted! Darn it!
Yes, they ranked them in order from MOST likely to LEAST likely to win.
It's easiest to break them down;
5/6 is 1/1.2
3/5 is 1/1.6
In the actress race
Clark 5/4 (1.25/1)
Applegate 3/2 (1.5/1)
Obviously, they think that race is VERY tight. And Margo I agree, they seemed to do a pretty good job or predicting to me. The biggest factor to me will be how the shows campaign in the comign weeks: Will anyone run an Avenue Q style juggernaut?
Yes, they ranked them in order from MOST likely to LEAST likely to win.
It's easiest to break them down;
5/6 is 1/1.2
3/5 is 1/1.6
In the actress race
Clark 5/4 (1.25/1)
Applegate 3/2 (1.5/1)
Obviously, they think that race is VERY tight. And Margo I agree, they seemed to do a pretty good job or predicting to me. The biggest factor to me will be how the shows campaign in the comign weeks: Will anyone run an Avenue Q style juggernaut?
#16
Posted: 5/11/05 at 4:19pm
I want Vicky Clark to win so bad I can taste it, but the gambler in me says, "Bet the mortgage on the Applegate girl!"
#17
Posted: 5/11/05 at 4:28pm
I 'heart' you Pal Joey.
"Y'all have a GRAND day now"
#18
Posted: 5/11/05 at 4:35pm
Gold Derby has multiple prognosticators for each award show, and between them, you'll usually get a good picture of what the outcome will be.
#19
Posted: 5/11/05 at 4:40pm
..that was difficult to read...
"It's a great feeling of power to be naked in front of people. We're happy to watch actual incredible graphic violence and gore, but as soon as somebody's naked it seems like the public goes a bit bananas about the whole thing."
#20
Posted: 5/11/05 at 6:14pm
As we all know, Christina Applegate has a great "story" this year. I'd expect her to get a LOT of mileage out of that. As one website put it today, this is her chance to stop being "Star of raunchy Fox Sitcom 'Married with Children'" and become "Tony Award winning actress Christina Applegate."
She will work her tiny hard bony ass off for that.
She will work her tiny hard bony ass off for that.
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