I predict that Jonathan Pryce will win the award for Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, after he replaces John Lithgow. (I read that that was the reason he took the part--so he could win another Tony.)
Of course, I don't fully get the qualifications... the show has to have been running a whole year? Or just be held over from a previous season? Does the actor have to have already played the part 6 months to be considered or can he/she be in the midst of a 6 month contract (minimum)? That last part about the contract leaves nearly everyone that goes in and out of Chicago out... none of them it seems plays for 6 months straight...