Spamalot or Dirty Rotten Scoundrels will probably be the forerunners for Best Musical given the teams and talent involved. Little Women and Brooklyn will be long shots. There's just not enough buzz, so the general public is not getting excited about them. Unless the critics absolutely rave, word-of-mouth spreads like wildfire, and a ton of money is dumped for publicity, the shows will flounder and be forgotten (Jane Eyre, Caroline or Change, Triumph of Love, and many others). Unpopular shows rarely take the top Tonys. Unless Brooklyn is completely brilliant and goes the way of Rent (though without the HUGE pre-Broadway buzz Rent got, I doubt it) it could hang in there.
"What can you expect from a bunch of seitan worshippers?" - Reginald Tresilian