If the road producers want to reward Charity, they'll give it Best Revival. I really don't think the connection between money and the acting awards is as strong as people are implying.
That's not true- Donna Murphy was the early favorite, and people trying to predict the awards were split between her and Tonya Pinkins by June, with Menzel being thought of as the "dark horse." Menzel's win was a surprise but not a shock the way I think a win by Foster would be this year.