If Rock of Ages were nominated, it would be filler. Billy Elliot is a lock, nomination and win, Shrek and 9 to 5 are likely slots 2 and 3 (in no order there). 13 and Tale of Two Cities don't stand a chance for a nomination. That leaves Story of My Life, title of show, and Rock of Ages.
Because it is still running in London, "Billy Elliot" is not a transfer. I would call it a remount, or perhaps an American mounting. (No pun intended, I assure you!)
But to get to your point, all three of these are sort of "out of nowhere" contenders, two of which "went all the way!" That is the similarity to me. "Avenue Q" and "Rent" fall in this category as well, which is a new phenomenon, I think--new since "Rent."
I would think that "Billy Elliot" is a lock for a nomination, and that "Shrek" and "9 to 5" are too, unless they close waaay before they should. "[title of show]" and "Rock of Ages" can battle it out for the fourth spot. IMHO.
A lot of what comes to Broadway now transfers from somewhere. Many of the recent losers were transfers, too (PASSING STRANGE and GREY GARDENS to name a couple).
Nothing matters but knowing nothing matters. ~ Wicked
Everything in life is only for now. ~ Avenue Q
There is no future, there is no past. I live this moment as my last. ~ Rent