Shows that will not make it through the holidays/new year

any thoughts?

There are many shows that I do not feel will make it into the new year.

Something is going on at Finding Neverland. Everyone is jumping ship. First Kelsey Grammer, now the stage manager, the main dresser's and some of the dancers. Carmello is leaving the show in the new year for Tuck Everlasting. I think that everyone is seeing the writing on the wall and at this rate, I do not see Morrison or Kelly staying with the show. Finding Neverland will not last past the new year. The original cast and backstage are all bailing on the show before the end of its first year on broadway. That has to mean something. 

In terms of long term shows, I feel that Matilda has run its course and will shutter its doors soon. Maybe the rumors about Charlie and Chocolate Factory taking Matilda's place on broadway are true. Two shows that have truly run their course are Chicago and Jersey Boys. Like Momma Mia they have been losing money for sometime and it is time for the final curtain call instead of dragging on the inevitable. 

I do not know how much longer the King and I has, but at this rate it will not last much longer. Lately most of the big name revival's like Annie, West Side Story, and How to Succedd in Business did not have a long stay on the great white way. Who knows maybe American in Paris is fade in the coming year. I do not feel that Fiddler on the Roof will have a long stay on the Great White Way. Neither will Dames at Sea. 

I can't see why Finding Neverland would close that soon.  It's grosses are still healthy, closing means losing a lot of their initial investment. They wil keep going while still profitable. 

Updated On: 9/20/15 at 05:54 PM

I have no opinion as to whether Finding Neverland will last, but I don't think Carmello's departure is evidence: she's been attached toTuck for years, even back when its pre-Bway tryout was scheduled for Boston.

Where did you find info about stage managers and dressers leaving? I don't disbelieve you, I'm just curious.

As for dancers, at least Ron Todorowski left to do Twyla Tharp ( https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/08/arts/dance/twyla-tharps-rehearsal-here-and-now-forever.html?_r=0 , which is legit -- I mean he didn't leave for the sake of leaving.

I can honestly state, without reservation, Amazing Grace will be gone before the end of October. You can bet on it.

How much longer do y'all reckon Kinky Boots and Les Miz have left?

There's absolutely no way Finding Neverland will close before January. 

Dames at Sea sounds like a flop. Is it just me, but I can always tell when something is going to flop.. Honeymoon in Vegas, First Date, Soul Doctor, The Last Ship, It Shoulda Been You... My flopdar is always right :p

Dames At Sea has no star. That is fine by me but for a musical that would appeal to tourists it seems like a mistake.

Dames at Sea

Allegiance and possibly On Your Feet-New Year

Updated On: 9/20/15 at 08:03 PM

rcwr said: "I have no opinion as to whether Finding Neverland will last, but I don't think Carmello's departure is evidence: she's been attached toTuck for years, even back when its pre-Bway tryout was scheduled for Boston.

Where did you find info about stage managers and dressers leaving? I don't disbelieve you, I'm just curious.

As for dancers, at least Ron Todorowski left to do Twyla Tharp ( https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/08/arts/dance/twyla-tharps-rehearsal-here-and-now-forever.html?_r=0 , which is legit -- I mean he didn't leave for the sake of leaving.

"

According to Carmello's instagram, the dressers and stage manager all had their last show today. 

Could someone explain why "Dames at Sea" now?  I've always loved the score, saw one of the original clones of the very first.  But who is the target audience for the show in 2015?  A show that parodies 1930s musicals, once ubiquitous on TV (50s, early 60s), now rarefied fare at best?  The boomers aren't invested -- these moves were beloved by our parents and grandparents -- and younger audiences don't have a star (see "Gigi" -- oh wait, that flopped, didn't it?) or a milieu with which to connect.  Why?  It could struggle along, but are the 65-75 year-olds out there eager to see this material reminted?  

I think Matilda and Neverland could go either way. They both had great summers, and only slumped in the last few weeks. If they manage to pick it back up again, they should both be fine. 

When having these sorts of discussions, is it better to site a show's gross percentage, or their actual gross? Obviously every show has a different running cost, so not every percentage is going to equal out to the same level of success. 

If we're going by percentage, Phantom and Something rotten are also on the lower end of the spectrum. I would.  Chicago, Kinky Boots, Jersey Boys and Les Mis have all been mentioned on this thread as possible closers, yet all 4 of those shows did a bit better than Phantom and Rotten last week, in terms of percentage.