I think Matilda and Neverland could go either way. They both had great summers, and only slumped in the last few weeks. If they manage to pick it back up again, they should both be fine.
When having these sorts of discussions, is it better to site a show's gross percentage, or their actual gross? Obviously every show has a different running cost, so not every percentage is going to equal out to the same level of success.
If we're going by percentage, Phantom and Something rotten are also on the lower end of the spectrum. I would. Chicago, Kinky Boots, Jersey Boys and Les Mis have all been mentioned on this thread as possible closers, yet all 4 of those shows did a bit better than Phantom and Rotten last week, in terms of percentage.