So what’s next for the Longacre?

Something tells me it will be loaded out and vacant by thanksgiving 2021. I dont know why anyone would see Diana after it being available on Netflix to let everyone know how insultingly horrible it is.

Given theres a high possibility of this closing a few weeks after opening, what do people think can be the next tenant for the Longacre?

Shows in the pipeline that come to mind:
Some Like it Hot
Sing Street
Almost Famous

I know its still short notice for a new show to move in this fall, but I have a feeling its plenty of time for this current show to move out.

The likely Netflix deal is that Netflix paid $X for the rights to produce the show, plus the costs of the filming. Unlikely that Netflix paid more than $10M. Some of that money goes directly to the authors/creative team, some goes into the investors' till. The production is capitalized at $17.5M. Safe to assume the entire capitalization of the stage production is NOT being covered by Netflix.

SING STREET seems likely, or possibly ALMOST FAMOUS.

Something tells me SOME LIKE IT HOT will go for one of the larger Shubert musical houses (The Broadway? The Shubert if Mockingbird can't get a star after Jeff Daniels leaves in January?) or maybe the Broadhurst. The Shuberts are lead-producing it. We don't know if it is actually happening this spring; if it is, then The Broadway seems like the only option...they won't be able to get it on sale and appropriately marketed in time for the Tonys.

Updated On: 10/3/21 at 01:44 PM

Based on opening/reopening dates...

"Phase 1" –– IF the following shows are going to close in January, they probably won't announce until after Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving will be a good bellwether for tourism. But if sales are crap before Thanksgiving, they know they aren't surviving the winter. In order of likelihood: Colored Man, Diana, Girl From the North Country, Jagged, Mockingbird, Ain't Too Proud, Tina, Chicago.

"Phase 2" –– The following shows are trickier, based on Opening Night dates. They won't have a great sense of post-opening box office until after Near Years. If they don't close before February of 2022, it will be tough to fill the theatre before the Tony cutoff. Company, Mrs. Doubtfire, Dear Evan Hansen.

As always, the theatre owner will be able to tip the scale if they have another show jonesing for a theatre. Producers want to stay in the owner's good graces.

Updated On: 10/3/21 at 02:14 PM

I have a feeling that the "popular shows" section on Broadway.com isn't actually based on real numbers. Or if it IS based on numbers, it's probably based on the site traffic they receive for each show's page, or the ticket-sales they make specifically through their own service. Either way, I would take it with a grain of salt. It's probably designed more as an advertising tool, rather than a gage for how each show is actually doing at the box office.