Some Tony Predictions

Hate to break it to you, but TABOO is up against AVENUE Q, and CAROLINE, OR CHANGE. And unfortunately, the Tony voters are going to loo kat the fact that the show closed before the awards. TABOO is probably the least likely to win (that's right, even below WICKEd.- hey, CATS won for best score too)

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Langella isn't the Mays competition -- it's Kline, no?

My guess: The score/lyrics Tony may well go to CAROLINE, with WICKED getting the Best Musical honors, and many others as well. This year, CAROLINE is the SUNDAY IN THE PARK WITH GEORGE, and WICKED the LA CAGE. LA CAGE beat SUNDAY.

Was intrigued by the Tony voters poll in the Times: apparently, for best actress in a musical, the most compelling race (and hardest to call among pundits and Tony watchers), it't not Tonya vs. Donna, but Idina vs. Tonya. Startled me, but the reporting supported it, not mere speculation. You Idina fans, you were right: she apparently has a growing contengency. Observation: interesting that Donna and Kristin are the Brantley annointees of the season (he annointed them anew in today's paper) and yet they aren't frontrunners with the voters. We'll see. The best news is, it's a great catagory, and all the ladies are quite wonderful. That's worth celebrating, the opportunities afforded them all. And when you consider that Bernadette is winding up her ultimately triumphant year in GYPSY, you have to admit: the musical theater has been a celebration of diva talent, divided among a range of roles.

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Updated On: 5/23/04 at 08:32 PM

Yes. Great article in the times. I'm glad it's pretty much between Pinkins and Menzel. For a while I was convinced that it was going to be Murphy for sure, and then I figured it would be Pinkins. But...now, I honestly think it's Menzel's award. I've been pushing for her the entire time, but I never believed she'd prevail what with all the competition this year for this category. Tony voters may be looking to reward a talent who hasn't been rewarded in the past. That's why I think it's goin' to Idina.

These are my predictions. And I have a near perfect record.

Best Play
I Am My Own Wife

Best Musical
Wicked

Best Revival of a Musical
Assassins

Best Revival of a Play
Henry IV

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
Kevin Kline, Henry IV

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Tom Aldredge, Twentieth Century

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Phylicia Rashad, A Raisin in the Sun

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Audra McDonald, A Raisin in the Sun

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Idina Menzel, Wicked

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Anika Noni Rose, Caroline, or Change

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Hugh Jackman, The Boy From Oz

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Michael Cerveris, Assassins

Best Director of a Play
Moises Kaufman, I Am My Own Wife

Best Director of a Musical
Joe Mantello, Assassins

Best Choreography
Kathleen Marshall, Wonderful Town

Best Book of a Musical
Jeff Whitty, Avenue Q


Best Original Score
Stephen Schwartz, Wicked

Best Orchestrations
Michael Starobin, Assassins

Best Scenic Design
Eugene Lee, Wicked

Best Costume Design
Susan Hilferty, Wicked


Best Lighting Design
Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer, Assassins

My personal predictions...

Best Play
I Am My Own Wife

Best Musical
Wicked

Best Revival of a Musical
Assassins

Best Revival of a Play
Henry IV

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
Jefferson Mays, I Am My Own Wife

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Brian F. O'Byrne, Frozen

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Tovah Feldshuh, Golda's Balcony (Those who have seen this performance will wonder why anyone else is nominated. Same thing with Mays.)

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Margo Martindale, Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (She probably won't win, but she was fantastic.)

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Not so sure about this one. As far as I'm concerned, it's a three-way race.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Isabel Keating, The Boy From Oz

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Hugh Jackman, The Boy From Oz

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Raul Esparza, Taboo

Best Director of a Play
Moises Kaufman, I Am My Own Wife

Best Director of a Musical
Joe Mantello, Assassins

Best Choreography
Kathleen Marshall, Wonderful Town

Best Book of a Musical
Winnie Holzman, Wicked

Best Original Score
Stephen Schwartz, Wicked

Best Orchestrations
Michael Starobin, Assassins

Best Scenic Design
Eugene Lee, Wicked

Best Costume Design
Susan Hilferty, Wicked

Best Lighting Design
Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer, Assassins

I personally hated Isabel Keating in The Boy From Oz. I know Hugh'll win and I hope (not likely) Beth Fowler for best featured actress