I always find it interesting to compare the professional reviews with the Tony nominations, so I started tracking them as described below.
Below is a numerical ranking of how the shows were reviewed. This is based solely on the determination over at Did They Like It. While imperfect, at least their “rules” for determining classification are consistent, even if we don’t agree with the result. (Meaning: I think that was a mediocre review, not a thumbs up.)
For those curious, each “thumbs up” review gets 5 pts; “neutral” receives 3 and “thumbs down” gets 1. Then the average is ascertained. I have considered more heavily weighing the NYT review, but have not done so this year. Maybe next year.
While I double checked, it’s still possible I screwed up the math somewhere. Or that more reviews were added after I tabulated.
New Musical
Maybe Happy Ending 5
Dead Outlaw 4.8
Real Women Have Curves 4.7
Buena Vista Social Club 4.4
Operation Mincemeat 4.3
Death Becomes Her 4.3
Just in Time 4.3
Boop! 4
Old Friends 3.9
Swept Away 3.5
Smash 3.3
A Wonderful World 3.1
Redwood 2.4
Tammy Faye 2
Musical Revival
Gypsy 4.6
Pirates of Penzance 4.4
Once Upon a Mattress 4.2
Elf 4
Floyd Collins 3.9
Sunset Blvd 3.8
The Last Five Years 2.4
New Play
Oh, Mary! 4.9
English 4.8
Purpose 4.7
John Proctor is the Villain 4.5
The Picture of Dorian Gray 4.2
Cult of Love 4.2
The Hills of California 4.1
Job 3.9
All In: Comedy About Love 3.5
Good Night & Good Luck 3.4
The Roommate 3.3
Stranger Things 3.2
McNeal 2
Left on Tenth 1.4
Play Revival
Yellow Face 4.7
Eureka Day 4.2
Home 4.1
Our Town 3.9
Glengarry Glen Ross 3.8
Romeo + Juliet 3.2
Othello 2.9
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/26/16
The flurry of positive to very positive reviews this weekend injects a fair amount of uncertainty into the awards race and pretty much guarantees that a lot of admired shows and performances will not be nominated.
Usually, there are a few shows that dominate the nominations - and that may yet be the case. But this seems like one of deeper seasons in recent Broadway history, even if it’s entirely possible that none of the musicals will have especially long runs.
The individual nominations are even less predictable, especially when categories remain uncertain for several possible nominees.
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