TONY Tony predictions

[WholeMegillah2]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 6:52pm

The numbers make it look more scientific than it could possibly be, but the predictions generally look about right. Right?
Time Out 2011 Tony Award predictions

[binau]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 6:53pm

How could they possibility come up with those numbers? lol.

[uptowndowntown]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 7:16pm

Interesting predictions on a very tough year. We, the audiences, have been the winners this year. As for TimeOut's predictions I sure hope Elizabeth Rodriguez beats Ellen Barkin in Best Featured Actress category. In fact I'd put Rodriguez first, Falco second, Light thrid and Barkin 4th. (I didn't see Lumley in La Bete). Barkin was good but her role was less challenging than the others and i found it to be too shrill and strident with some very odd choices. I think that category is going to go to Rodriguez. I hope Vazquez or Moyaed win Best Featured Actor over Hickey. But I thought all three were pretty great!

[pinoyidol2006]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 8:17pm

How could they possibly come up with those numbers? lol.

As someone who recently took classes in Probability and Statistics, I'm also curious as to how they got their numbers. If these numbers were legit, my guess would be that they did some statistics on how past decisions have been made. Or they could have just have an arbitrary numbering system. The guaranteed wins are given a rating of above 80%, etc... Just so that they could say, "Well, we did say that [X] winning had y% chance of winning" in the event of an upset. This way, they would never have had made any wrong predictions.

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 8:57pm

Speaking of Tony predictions and how people come up with numbers...in the BWW awards poll, who actually voted there? The article said that hundreds of thousands weighed in, but who are these people...there doesn't seem to be that amount of activity on these message boards. Just wondering.

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 9:06pm

Could TONY have taken betting odds and converted them to percentages? Or just polled people in their office and listed those percentages?

[CockeyedOptimist2]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 10:18pm

"(Boritt's nomination, for basic black chairs, ranks as the committee's looniest choice this year.)"

Wouldn't you think that they could at least get the color of the chairs right if they're going to scoff at the design? They were silver!

[pinoyidol2006]

Posted: 6/6/11 at 11:12pm

Betting at the Tonys is a hilarious thought to me. I'm not making fun of you for that suggestion. But just thinking about having a room full of theater geeks betting on who's gonna win makes me giggle.

[jdrye222]

Posted: 6/7/11 at 12:57am

I don't understand how they come up with the numbers either. And I don't agree with them at all. How can Joshua Henry have 1% chance of winning, and Beth Leavel 10%? I also wouldn't put Mormon's chances THAT high, though I do think they will win. Very strange.