Tony Nom Predictions (incl. prods I have not seen, so no lectures)

Here are my preds for 2005 Tony nods, LOCKS are in caps.

MUSICAL
DIRTY ROTTEN SCOUNDRELS
SPAMALOT
Little Women
Light In The Piazza
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang

Actor in a Musical
(This category looks to be FLOODED, so no locks)
Daniel Davis
John Lithgow
Norbert Leo Butz
Tim Curry
Gary Beach OR another guy from Spamalot

Actress in a Musical
VICTORIA CLARK
CHRISTINA APPLEGATE
SUTTON FOSTER
Eden Espinosa (altho I don't really enjoy her) OR Jennifer Gambatese
Sherie Rene Scott

Featured Actor
Greg Jbara
Denis O'Hare
Cheyenne Jackson
Gavin Creel
5th slot pretty open (Berresse, Gravitte, Sabella, Jennings, Anderson, Kudisch etc.)

Featured Actress
NATASCIA DIAZ (will be brilliant, is my guess)
KELLI O'HARA
Erin Dilly
Sara Ramirez
Joanna Gleason
(I WISH they could include Gettelfinger, she is brilliant, but her role is seemingly not big enough)

hmmm... other predictions?

With luck there will be a tie. Corine is always pulling for ties.

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Those sound like pretty reasonable predictions, findingnamo.

As far as the best musical category, I assume that the fourth slot will be a duke out between LITTLE WOMEN and CHITTY. People seem to have a real respect for LITTLE WOMEN, even though it isn't perfect. CHITTY in London wasn't as well received. It will be interesting to see.

I would add Raul Esparza to the Best Actor category. Like Victoria Clark, he would seem to be the kind of actor that the Tony committee would feel "paid his dues," and whether he is great or not in CHITTY, his sensational performance in THE NORMAL HEART will weigh on everyone's mind.

According to everything I've heard, it would appear that Ms. Ramirez is a lock for the featured actress award.

The big question for me is who will take the big prize? I assume it's going to be a shoot-out between DRS and SPAMALOT. While PIAZZA is a sensational show, it's exactly the kind of show that Tony voters never vote for, i.e., PARADE, RAGTIME, or THE WILD PARTY.

Updated On: 1/16/05 at 06:24 PM

Does Nathan Lane qualify for anything this year?...Lead Actor?...Book of a Musical?

Then again, his performance didn't really recieve glowing reviews.

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Updated On: 1/16/05 at 06:33 PM

FOAnatic, Nathan Lane does qualify this year, both as an actor and, mostly likely, for book of a musical.

I doubt he will prevail in the actor's category. But he might stand a chance in the book category, depending on the committee's ruling.

Don't forget that THE OPPOSITE OF SEX is having presentations for potential investors in a week and a half. If it gets produced, it will most likely be by Tony time this year.

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wow, people really do only talk about musicals on this site. I guess you haven't seen any dramas.

Best Play:
Democracy
Twelve Angry Men
Doubt
Gem of the Ocean

Best Actress in a Play
Brenda Blethyn: Night Mother
Jessica Lange: Cat On A Hot Tin Roof
Natasha Richardson: Streetcar Named Desire
Cherry Jones: Doubt
Phylicia Rashad: Gem of the Ocean

Best Actor in a Play:
Tom Aldredge: Twelve Angry Men
Richard Thomas: Democracy
John Reilly: Streetcar Named Desire
Brian F. Obyrne: Doubt
James Naughton: Democracy
Ruben Santiago Hudson: Gem of the Ocean

I thought Spelling Bee was Off Broadway?

immortalbroadway, at this point, DOUBT is an Off-Broadway show and not eligible for Tony nominations.

While it has been the best reviewed straight play of the season, the chances of it moving to Broadway this season would seem to be extremely slim. The producer of DOUBT is also the producer of GEM OF THE OCEAN, and there is a severe conflict of interest there.

I think Phillip Bosco without question deserves a nod.
I just hope his leaving TAM early doesn't hurt his chances.

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Veuve:

The only reason the show may not move to Broadway on time is because the theater previously secured is no longer available. So-assuming everything goes as planned and they get a theater they will be eligible.

immortal,

Yes, that's one explanation. (And a rather convenient one).

I was just pointing out that there were extenuating circumstances about DOUBT, regardless of the press releases that are issued about the subject.

Carole Shorenstein Hays is stuck between a rock and a hard place. She has a long time relationship with August Wilson, and it is obvious that the act of bringing DOUBT to Broadway will obliterate any chances Wilson has for a Tony this year, as well as destroying Rashad's chances.

Personally, I'm glad I'm not in her shoes.

Doogie, Cheyenne Jackson is a leading man, not a featured actor.

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