This is going to be a very competitive race. That having been said I agree it's important everyone remember "huge" doesn't equal award-winning, "buzz" doesn't equate with Tony voters, and "big business" doesn't translate to a sweep on any awards night.
Funny enough the voters and nominators I've talked to who've seen Great Comet here or Groundhog Day in London have much more enthusiasm for those two shows, and the same goes, to a lesser extent, for Come From Away. I just sense a lot more passion there. ("Incredible", "Amazing", "Unbelievable" etc... Whereas when I ask these same people how they like "Evan Hansen" I hear "Good", "Pretty Good", or at worst "Fine".) To make it clear these are people with no horses in the race or axes to grind, and people who like, to one degree or another, all these shows – it just seems like Hansen has the most relatively muted enthusiasm, while still being well-liked. I also hear surprisingly good things about Amelie from L.A., though no one seems to think it will be a major player in the awards.
In any case, the safest bet based on what's opened so far is for Great Comet to win Best Director and to clean up as well in the design categories. Which doesn't mean that Evan Hansen won't then win Musical, Book, and Score - or that Great Comet won't (to say nothing of the more than half a dozen new musicals that haven't opened yet_.
But there seems to be a wishful-thinking mindset, whether from fans or from people who haven't seen most of the others, that Evan Hansen (perhaps by way of opening so early, and coming straight from a well-regarded off-Broadway transfer) is "the next Hamilton", "this year's Hamilton", "as good as Hamilton", "as unstoppable as Hamilton", etc. Just because the show is doing incredibly at the box office, the album selling well, etc., however, doesn't make this so.
Again, by the time June rolls around, Evan Hansen may well make a near-sweep of the main creative awards. But with one serious competitor having already opened and doing just about as well with both critics and box office, and with more potential contenders yet to open than the maximum that could even be allowed in the category, anyone who thinks that like Hamilton last year "Dear Evan Hansen" has this season in the bag, is counting chickens way before they hatch and may very well wind up severely mistaken/shocked/disappointed.
