What's Going to Win Best Musical?

Dear Evan Hansen, by a mile. Its momentum will not be dying down any time soon--weekend performances are basically sold out until summer, and the availability for other performances is extremely limited. Combine that with near-universal rave reviews, and it feels unstoppable. I expect it will win Best Musical, Best Actor, Best Score, and Best Book, perhaps more.

Updated On: 2/14/17 at 10:54 AM

EVAN HANSEN has the momentum right now, but I think a lot of people are underestimating GROUNDHOG DAY.

Come From Away is incredible and an extremely important show, especially in New York. Rooting for it.

The DEH team sees Groundhog Day as their biggest competition come Tony time. However with their abysmal marketing campaign (from what I've seen so far) it'll be interesting to see if they can find their footing.

It's the middle of February- lots of things haven't even started previews. Dear Evan Hansen is the frontrunner now, and if I were to place a bet I'd probably say it will win, but the only other serious contender that has opened is Great Comet.

I still feel unconvinced that Come from Away will be much of a success but again- February.

ethan231h said: "Literally I hear so many people talking about, busses, subway, etc."

You mean when they are In Transit?!

At this point, I might give the (slight) edge to Dear Evan Hansen, though The Great Comet seems likely to earn more nominations. I also think the latter is the current frontrunner to win Best Direction of a Musical, Best Lighting Design of a Musical, and Best Scenic Design of a Musical.

Memories of when people started predicting American in Paris would win because it was originally doing well at the box office. Wicked vs. Avenue Q as well. Commercial success really has very little to do with it. If it did, they would nominate/award celebrities much more than they do.

I do think Dear Evan Hansen will win, but not because it's a hot ticket. Or because it's the better show. It's just more appealing and accessible than Great Comet or Come From Away. Even if DEH wins musical/score/book, I could easily see Great Comet winning as many Tonys as it or maybe even more. It will sweep the technicals, and maybe pick up one of score/book/orchestrations as well as potentially featured actor for Lucas Steele.

I expect the two frontrunners to be Dear Evan Hansen and Great Comet.

Dear Evan Hansen: Best Musical(probably), Best actor, best featured actress, best book, and best score (probably).

Great Comet: Best Musical (possible, but slightly less likely), Best featured actor (maybe), Best Set, Best Costumes, Best Lighting, best orchestrations, and best score (possible, but less likely).

I highly doubt that Come From Away, War Paint, or even Groundhog Day will provide a whole lot of competition for DEH or Comet, which both have a huge amount of buzz.

I think that Best Revival will also be a very interesting category with some competition between Hello Dolly!, Miss Saigon, and Falsettos.

icecreambenjamin said: "I expect the two frontrunners to be Dear Evan Hansen and Great Comet.

Dear Evan Hansen: Best Musical(probably), Best actor, best featured actress, best book, and best score (probably).

Great Comet: Best Musical (possible, but slightly less likely), Best featured actor (maybe), Best Set, Best Costumes, Best Lighting, best orchestrations, and best score (possible, but less likely)."

But at this point, who do you see winning Best Direction of a Musical?

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "But at this point, who do you see winning Best Direction of a Musical?



"

I forgot to write it, but Chavkin's direction of Comet is simply brilliant and so she is the clear frontrunner for best director, in my opinion.

For the people who are saying "Come From Away" wont stand a chance, have you actually seen it? If you haven't, your opinions are worthless.